Member Info for Adw198

Would it not make more sense to quote MCAP rather than price?

Also very positive here, because there’s just so much margin to play with.

I do fear the pending Q2 financials may bring a revised full year production guidance, because I don’t see >95k as very likely. I suspect we’ll end up 85-95k range which will need communicating. Unless the gold has evaporated then it’s not a big deal it just defers the income.

I’ll be additionally conservative and assume AISC comes in at $1300. As I say so much cash being generated at these gold levels.

Plus we’ve got potential drilling catalysts from Segilola (satellite and underground), Douta and Lithium. Although the latter seems less impactful, I did re read the recent RNs and note they seem very keen to hoover up more lithium ground.

“The Company continued its acquisition of prospective lithium tenure in Nigeria”.

This is such a rare AIM opportunity because whilst we have the usual jam tomorrow blue sky exploration possibilities, we’re underpinning it with fabulous fcf fundamentals.

confirmed revenues (taken from the september 23 and recent prelims rns)

23 h1 - £1.2m (0.8m products, £0.4m services)

23 h2 - £1m

24 h1 - £1.0m - £1.3m

24 h2 - forecast to be at least £5.1m, partly justified because of the pharma services pipeline.

we dont know how many products have been sold, we only know product and services revenue combined was £1m - £1.3m till the end of june, which is circa the same as h1 23.

in the september rns they said services related sales of up to £2.5 million have already been made for revenues in future periods, which implies a higher proportion of future revenue would be for services.

they never forecast where the £6.45m was coming from, but whatever *** packet they wrote the calculation on, i very much doubt they were on track for by h1.

i can’t see how even £4m can be achieved this year, because there’s nothing to suggest product sales are rocking and presumably any significant services contracts wouldn’t be paid immediately.

there can’t be much debate about the missed revenue, the only sensible discussions would be around the severity of the miss and the impact of that event.

I’m also a bit nervous on the drill results - not so much Lithium but Douta and Segilola. The way (I’ve now realised) it tends work is if there’s nothing materially positive, they don’t release it. Hopefully there’s more good news coming from Douta building up the resource.

I have my suspicions that not much was mobilised at Segilola within Q2. The last update was terribly written, I suspect to obfuscate

“· Commencement of Segilola Underground Exploration a focus on structural studies in Q2 2024

· Completion of Phase 1 of Segilola Underground Drilling Program Design to commence at the end of the Quarter”

I’ve asked the company to clarify, as I do recall he’d said or strongly implied we’d already started in one of the interviews

I’m not too worried about gold - the big drop appears to be around a potential pending recession which presumably will only accelerate rate cuts and interest in the gold safe heaven. With $1150 AISC then even $2300 is a seriously profitable margin, but imagine if / when it makes its next move. Next years broker projections could be really quite something and we’ve got the various drilling potential to feed in too.

Could anyone clarify whether / we’ve started drilling at Segilola?

I’m really struggling to comprehend what this extract from the recent RNS means?

“Commencement of Segilola Underground Exploration a focus on structural studies in Q2 2024

· Completion of Phase 1 of Segilola Underground Drilling Program Design to commence at the end of the Quarter”

Completion and commence strike me to as quite contradictory words. My suspicion is the programme design was being finalised with drilling about to commence.

You keep contradicting yourself mate. You’re either confused, a liar or both.

I’ll leave you to it.

You’ve said you’ll be selling out at first opportunity, which you then implied was your break even point of circa 18p?

Has that now changed?

As for not wanting to disturb the management…hmm, that’s a good one.

But in summary you came onto the board with all these concerns / queries about the auditors that you claimed other investors would want to know, you’ve now decided to drop it but not update the people you claim to represent. Nice one.

Is that a rhetorical question or do you have an answer yourself?

Personally I agree it makes little sense - logically we’re massively undervalue especially when compared to previous levels. Hence many of us being confident of a re rate.

Did you ever hear back from the company, BDO or the Canadian authorities?

I would offer some minor caution around some of the more bullish projections, as obviously the balance sheet isn’t super healthy with those accounts payable. But ultimately this is a cash cow with massive potential on top, so I remain super relaxed here. The link from loudspeaker was excellent in terms of confirming we’ve got a few more years left as a minimum in Nigeria.

Nice bit of buying today and with gold kicking in again I suspect the bottom is in. If there’s more sub 14 tomorrow I’ll probably go back for more.

Might have expected some more drilling results by now, but to be honest it feels like no value is being given to any of the exploration projects. Obviously extending the life of mine in Nigeria is the big one as that will produce pretty straightforward cash. It does seem a bit unclear how many full years we have left, from memory in think 2026 wasn’t a full production year but that was from a plan in 2021. Given what’s already known, it’s almost impossible to think we won’t get at an absolutely minimum another full year, which should give a conservative extra $80m fcf.

Just need these results to start dropping, gold to continue and all will soon be rosy here. As others have highlighted the downside risk seems exceptionally low here, because even if all drilling fails we’ve still got the cash machine to empty out.

Another week of generating a probable $2m of free cash flow ahead. Even that assumes only 2k oz produced and an AISC of nearly $1400.

Just keep on churning it out, load the bases and then let the exploration results delvier home runs on top.

Fair comments all round. As I say I’ll try harder myself on that front.

Good luck fella, I might well be wrong here!

Morning

In fairness I hadn’t realised it ws 30 times, that is alot. Probably a similar pattern to this though - I post my honestly held beliefs with no agenda and rather than discuss any of the substance people emerge to make accusations about my motives, tell me I can’t post or that I’m running multiple accounts. Best to stick the company I reckon (me too, I’ll try harder not to get sucked in the Punch and Judy.

It’s been helpful for me posting to crystallise my own views. I remain interested here. I don’t actually know how to short but if I was short, would that give me the right to comment? Personally I think all views are allowed on a board like this. Those not invested probably have a less biased perspective..

It appears nobody thinks the forecast £6.45m is happening and the debate is pivoting to whether that matters.

For me it’s massive because it’s just repeating the pattern - and accelerating the funding requirement. In that context I don’t agree a few small deals prove the business case is working. The business case surely isnt based on constantly missing targets, or perhaps more pertinently the investment case isn’t?

I do agree if it was able to demonstrate growth and demand then a couple of million 1 year or the next doesn’t define the prospects, but realistically when is this company going to pay its way and even beyond that when will actually make money. So much needs to happen and unfortunately there’s no much tangible evidence of these things coming true.

I suspect last orders is being called on AN / IG, as it’s clear something needs to change - unless I’m wrong and they miraculously find multi million deals that get paid immediately.

Thanks for the steer.

Can you explain why you’re sharing this? Presumably it’s for something other than a random desire to educate people?

With the amateur psychology and quadratic equations, could you please just answer the question I asked?

“So can you clarify whether you think higher gold prices improve or diminish the investment case here?”

You also complained / predicted that high gold prices would lead to an increase in the accounts payable figure.

So can you clarify whether you think higher gold prices improve or diminish the investment case here?

That does seem high, I agree.

Q. Why was the projected CAPEX for LOM $99.2m, but they have spent $196.3m in just 2.5 years?

A. Fair question, I suspect the extreme inflationary pressures will account for some. I’ll definitely be interested in the answer.

Q. Why was there an adverse variance of over 60% in 2022 OPEX and 28% in 2023, even though the variance has decreased significantly?

A. As above

Q. Why hasn't the promised updated technical report for Segilola been released?

A. If he promised he’d release an updated technical report it’s fair to ask. As BBN pointed out I suspect this will come when they (hopefully factor in the mine life extension)

Q. Why hasn’t a SMART plan been developed to show potential investors that they are prioritizing keeping expenses low?

A. I’m not sure I’ve seen one of these published before but it would be good to know if they do have a plan for managing expenditure

Q. Why, in Osun State, Nigeria (and I am Nigerian, so I understand the context), has an average of $1.5m per year been spent on motor vehicles and office furniture?

A. Is it definitely an average? If so then it sounds high but I don’t know the comparison. Either way it’s not material to the investment case imo, but you’re entitled to ask.