RE: Gold futures20 Aug 2024 09:09
I was also in Shanta and can only think how much those sneaky fckers are coining in.
Personally I think we’ll miss production guidance and it’s a slight worry as to how that might be received. I’d be delighted with anything around 90k but even 85k gives 45k ish for H2 at these huge margins. I don’t want a miss to be seen as a big negative, it’s more than enough to generate huge fcf. I largely see it as deferred profit anyway, as presumably the gold is still there.
I realise I’m perhaps a broken record on this point but similarly we should be mindful that AISC is going to average more like $1300 for Q2, Q3 and Q4 combined. Again, absolutely brilliant at these margins but it wouldn’t be a huge shock if Q2 was more like $1400+ to “offset” the $675 Q1.
But soon or later we’re going to get quarterly results where the production and margin will produce truly astonishing revenue and cash. And he’s already confirmed we’ve got 100k worth of gold for 2024/25/26, so we should be getting quarter after quarter spitting out cash.
Production being weighted to H2 is a bonus given gold is taking a similar trajectory.
Stars looks aligned here - just keep it up and the numbers will soon speak for themselves. An updated broker note reflecting the materially higher than (they) expected gold prices wouldn’t go amiss either.
The base case along makes this great investment but as we know we could equally rerate based on mine life extension or great results at Douta and perhaps even Lithium. Part of me wonders if they’re being slowish to release results whilst they hoover up more land on these fronts. Wishful thinking maybe!