Member Info for Adw198

It really is astonishing compared to anything else I can see on AIM. Even taking any number of worst scenarios the investment case here is clear.

Let’s say next years AISC comes in higher than expected at say $1200, gold pulls back to $2400 and we produce 90k. That’s still $108m, or £80m, or 66% of our MCAP.

I’ve been as guilty as the next person of chasing the sexy story and magic rainbow stories on AIM but even aside from the mega cash flow we’ve still that got massive upside potential from Douta, which will probably become very compelling even at that conservative $2400.

Now run the above scenarios with gold at today’s levels, or better still the $3000 (+) that BBN fairly speculates could arise.

Also need to factor in LOM extensions that could be anywhere between 1-6 years. I’ll happily take a mid figure there too.

A couple of free swings at Lithium and Sierra Leone there too.

Should be a great run here.

@ investor

Whilst I wouldn’t dismiss underhand fun and games manipulating the SP, I suspect the bigger issue is we’re supposed to be producing this year and currently have no (permanent ) permit and no deal to sell and transport the oil.

We don’t know the ramifications of the temporary construction and how a rejected permit might interplay with that.

The deal hopefully sounds close but we’ve been told that for months.

If a permit / deal RNS lands this will rocket imo.

I’d got the impression they were more mid September, because I’d thought (perhaps mis remembered though) that he’d also indicated a 2nd set of Douta results would be late(r) in September.

Anyway, we know they’re imminent and unless they’re disappointed I’m confident of a run well into the 20s over the next few weeks.

Great chart.

I’m expecting drill results tomorrow and (still) expect a run to all time highs by month end.

Maybe we could find a mine to “acquire” in say, Senegal. I wonder how much a 2million oz resource there would cost…

:)

@harchris Yes that broker note seems out of date given the move gold has made, but perhaps they’re waiting for the pending drill results before updating. I’d be quite content with only 2 years additional mine life because that period along would probably cover the entire MCAP if they can keep the costs similar.

This latest move over 2600 looks pretty sustained. I couldn’t work out the spike and crash after the Fed announcement but happy to concede there’s bigger forces are play than my amateur armchair analysis!

Hey toblerome, what a great life you must live to post 3269 times on a single share. Did you bet mummy’s rings on this?! Ever considered a balanced portfolio :)

All this good news and you’ve lost even more money toblerome. Come on, give us a laugh and tell us your average mate?

Weak little man with a weak mindset. And a decreasing bank balance - which I’m going to guess was inherited to start with given the stupidity.

@gravy

Clearly I wish I hadn’t bought at 2.76. I’m brave and honest enough to share my average, but I still think I’ll make money. It’s just not as straightforward as some would insist it is. It’s Mongolia mate, so be prepared to lose the lot - but I again reiterate that’s not what I think will happen. Bet what you can afford to lose - unlike the telegram lads who insist it’s a banker

@investor33

There’s a telegram group where they won’t accept anything other than ramping nonsense. Bunch of bed wetters who blame everyone and anything for their own bad decisions. I only joined (and invested) a couple of weeks ago and both RNSs were hailed as worldies and we saw what the market thought.

Pretty funny and usual stuff really.

FWIW I continue to hold and expect to make money here. But it s a Mongolian explorer ffs not a government bond. ;)

this is classic aim. lots of moving goalposts, half truths and a merry band of *******s cheerleading whatever is announced because they’ve all bought a dream.

i only bought in a few weeks ago circa 2.76 but it’s already obvious this is a big punt. what if the governor says no permit? why there no deal?

i’m sure the lads on telegram who shout down anyone and anything that doesn’t suit their massively underwater agenda but this is a punt. personally i think it’ll come good but i’m glad i’ve not thrown the kitchen sink or years of my life monitoring every buy / sell. those stupid people who sold all the way down to these levels over the last few weeks aren’t as stupid as the telegram mafia told us they were.

who’d have thought investing in a mongolian explorer / miner might not be a penalty kick?! ;)

Good news on the temp permit which seems to suggest we can produce in October. Lots of uncertainty on the long term permit, company at least being honest they don’t know how long a decision will take.

Odd that still no deal to transport and sell. This has been going on for months and months and was supposedly being finalised in July. Now they’re “aiming” for October. Whats holding this up?

The Telegram lads are doing cartwheels but again blaming MMs, Shorters, Traders and basically anyone and everyone for the fact they can’t read the market. The permit and deal they expect hasn’t arrived but needless to say they’re delighted ;)

I hold but it’s right to note Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt because there’s lots of that until we start selling oil. With that risk there hopefully comes big rewards.

“HarChris” that should have read .

I was initially concerned reading the RNS that it might divert resources and worse still potentially signal underwhelming drilling results at Segilola and Douta, but it seems such a small outlay it’s hard not like it. We could be building something really special if Gold doesn’t fall away.

Today looks like a procession of chunky buys, won’t take much more for another tick up. If we get a decent Segilola update (1st results are “imminent”) then I’d like to think we’ll be pushing ATHs. True spread 19.5 - 20p.

Tip of the cap to the discourse on here. These boards are usually awfully but some great and helpful observations / analysis here - Hais and BBN both well and truly on my Christmas card list.

Think we might be about to breakout along with gold - they’re happy to pay 18.75 for 100k shares.

That lack of liquidity we struggled with now feels like a strength. Good times ahead!

Yeah I’ve been consistent in my opinion they won’t hit revenue. I’ve explained why and also acknowledged my opinion might be wrong. I’m not currently invested so have no agenda. If I choose to buy back in it’ll be much lower after the revenue warning.

@emerald

It’s fair to ask Gordongekko what the objective of his posting is, but regarding the substance of his point, you’ve described it as “ a profit warning you have dreamed up out of thin air “. He and others have explained on several occasions why we think they’ll be a(nother) profit warning. If you don’t even consider it a possibly perhaps you could highlight where you think the >£5m revenue is coming from H2?

Better still I’ll do you a deal. How about you agree to never post again if there is one, and let’s see if Gekko agrees to do the same if there isn’t one this year.

Fair bet gents?

We need the permit and the deal - the drop amongst the otherwise good news in surely because of the ongoing delay / uncertainty. When they arrive should have a power move up.

That cash position did catch my eye - as laura says £53.2m of cash at 31 May 2024, but Fridays RNS reported “As at 30 June 2024, the Company had cash reserves of £49.2m”. Hopefully not all months are like June with a £4.1 drop in cash.

@Deadgrateful

What would the long term investment case be in your eyes please, at say 8-10p and how is that different to the long term investment case at say 12-14p?

I bought some at 12.8p on Friday trying (and failing!) to catch the bottom but having gone over the RNS a few times still think it’s well overdone given cash burn rate hasn’t been materiality effected in the short term and the significant cash pile we’ve got. Equally, I don’t think it’s as straightforward as saying it’s “just a 6month delay”, it’s more the arguably increased risk / question of whether there is a viable medium - long term business here.

There should be no debate about whether they’ll be another raise, there definitely will be it’s a case of when and for how much. The previous recent big II backing is a source of confidence for me.

I’m hoping and expecting a short term bounce to mid teens by month end when they’ll have a better story to tell.