Member Info for Adw198

Apologies I got that completely wrong - it does indeed say we only paid the $60k.

Hmm I think that’s overly positive to be honest. Firstly, we’ve not had confirmation as to what the amount paid was. Hopefully it’s the $60k we referenced in the Monday RNS, but obviously other figures are being banded around and it’s basically whichever figure the court was told was due. Secondly, they managed to extract that money and whilst it appears they didn’t close us down, whatever they did do was persuasive enough for us to cough up a disputed amount literally overnight. Point being they’ve got some power and it seems unlikely they’ll just drop it there, especially given relations seem soured. I think the company themselves recognise that, hence referencing trying to takes steps to stop it happening again.

Hopefully we get a run of no more nonsense, building up cash to fund Douta and diversify the risk.

Anyway, our drill results are now overdue so hopefully we get back to that business asap

Mate, you didn’t even know we had Douta did you?

And when you say “ Every bit of money that THX can make is needed for its survival beyond its very short mine life” do you really think the Segilola extension work will cost even a quarter fcf?

As others have said you’re not a sophisticated or talented troll, but you do provide a good opportunity to remind ourselves of the strength here.

We’re all guessing to some extent, but the lack of formal clarity on the amount being claimed smacks of a shakedown. It didn’t look like the Respondent (ie us) were present in the Court as certainly there was no reference to our representations, which might also explain why we were able to release an RNS seemingly unaware this was coming.

I’m pretty sure it’ll blow over once a payment is made but obviously we’re unsure of when and how much that’ll be - and the long term scar on sentiment.

A painful reminder of the jurisdiction risk.

I suspect we’ll get an RNS today Chris. This is definitely material. A suspension whilst they sort it might even be on the cards. Ffs!

They posted it on twitter 16hours ago, yet Canada ended largely flat.

God knows what’s going on!

This is just terrible timing, things were looking so good. Need an RNS from the company asap and let’s get some brown envelopes stuffed :)

Anyone have an idea what “seals” means

https://punchng.com/osun-seals-mining-company-over-tax-infractions/

I largely agree - and expect fireworks (by which I mean big swings one way or another) to the upside

Yeah fireworks in terms of likely trading range. You nearly sold at 16.5p so not unreasonable to think others will cash out at that price or lower if it further drops. Personally I think we’ll get a big bounce on drilling results and / or formal clarification but it’ll be volatile one way or another imo.

I’m seeing the funny side but it’s definitely a pain. I might be talking my book but I do find it informative and reassuring that the rebuttal came from a someone lower down the food chain than Segun, ie they felt it didn’t need to big dog.

Canada holding to a sensible level.

We’ll have fireworks next week one way or another.

Thanks T073.

I’m just trying to figure out the medium term impact. Short term it’s clearly a pain in the @rse. It sounds like not a biggie, the biggest issue in the medium - long term might be the reminder of the jurisdiction risk. Another fun day on the AIM casino :)

Will be interesting to see what gets released first out of clarification and drill result, and of course how the SP reacts.

@To73 and @kingfisher

In your opinion / experience of Nigeria, would you anticipate a payment of the claimed amount would resolve this amicably?

Agreed all round Harchris - well hopefully get a clarification RNS and then the drill results.

What a game!

Unless I’m getting mixed up I’m not ignoring it mate - Q2…$802 AISC and sold at $2309 = $1507 margin.

This quarter I expect will be circa $1150 AISC and sold at something like $2450 = $1300 margin.

@harchris

I wouldn’t expect Q3 to sell much if any, above 23k oz, but the margin will be considerably less. So I’m just cautioning (myself) not to expect fireworks at the next financial update. That said, quarter 4 should be spectacular with by far our biggest production (forecast), at the best of the (expected) gold prices. In any case, as you say every quarter we deliver net profit we continue to de risk the investment. A flying rock or similar incident earlier in the year would have been much more problematic for the reasons you’ve outlined.

I think you’ve summed it up perfectly with the below, highlighting that the base case underwrites the value with massive potential upside on top. Let’s get these first drill results and start motoring!

“Low risk AIM share is the pull factor for me with meaningful and significant upside once well signposted catalysts land”

It’s a great board, I echo the gratitude.

I also like balance debate / analysis and whilst like everyone else I’m super bullish I do think we need to be mindful that H2 AISC will be much higher than H1. So whilst POG will lead to record breaking revenue, I don’t expect Q3 profit to match Q2, which reported a $1500 margin.

Also a minor worry also around a heavy bout of selling just before drill results, but that’s probably more reflective of my overweight position than a massive concern.

@dazzer

Exactly, this is AIM where most CEOs see the job to overhype and overpromise to shore up interest. It’s part of the job description really so we have to try and read between the lines sometimes. In this case we’ve the added uncertainty of being in Mongolia. Only bluffers would pretend they know everything will definitely be fine. The ones who shout the loudest are clearly the most underwater and most concerned, hence they try to control the debatw and invent conspiracy theories. The Telegram mafia a brilliant example of that, literally monitoring every buy / sell and pretending they know what’s happening, attacking anyone who gives a balanced view. The CEO himself doesn’t know if / when a permit is coming and nobody knows the implications of it being delayed or refused. Lots of risk, albeit lots of reward. Don’t bet the family silver!

@investor Well I think the granting of a permit and confirmation of a deal will see this rerate because the concerns that we’ll be producing this year are there and to some extent valid. If you think the same then presumably it’s fair to say the absence of those things are partly to blame for the current SP?

The permit is beyond their control and fair play on the workaround (personally I’m unsure how that works). But the lack of a deal is slightly odd - it was being finalised in August and here we’re are “trying” to get it written up and THEN sent for approval. If we produce in October this will fly, but I wouldn’t be betting the farm on that.

“The parties have committed to try to have the agreement in place in time for production start-up on Heron-1 which is now anticipated to be during October.”

@hamm The reason it’s low is because we don’t ha e a permit and don’t have a deal to transport and sell the oil.

If / when those things are resolved we’ll be fine. Let’s not pretend it’s nailed on to happen this year but hopefully it does