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I can give you 5 reasons.
· The Group continues to forward sell it domestic production and receive advances from oil traders with $US2.5 million advanced at 30 June 2022, and the continued availability of such arrangements is important to working capital [..], should they be withdrawn or reduced more quickly than expected then additional funding would be required.
^They can't operate without forward selling^
· Similarly, the Group sells to local mini refineries. Should these arrangements be terminated or reduced then additional funding would be required.
^Mini refineries that didn't exist last year are now apparently a must have^
· For the time being the Group is not selling to the international markets as a consequence of the impact of sanctions on Russia, including access to pipelines and the price at which oil emerging from Russian pipelines is sold.
^Problems accessing pipeline after months of saying there is no issue^
· As ever forecasts remain sensitive to oil prices [..] In the event of a significant decline in world and domestic oil prices additional funding would be required.
^A significant decline means prices returning to normal $40-$60. They can't operate at these prices^
·interim results has been prepared on a going concern basis using current income levels but a reduced work programme
^That's why there is no progress on MJF.^
Where is the cash going that they have to reduce the work programme and live hand to mouth at the mercy of local traders ????
Everyone's feeling butthurt on LSE. Even the calm and considered ones are getting a bit waspish.
I do sympathise ... been in that place with Carver a long time ago and I learnt my lesson. Which is why I will never speak to him nor believe anything he puts in an RNS.
Seeing lots theories being posted. BTW, you are all wrong.
Also they will never delist voluntarily. Oh no - AIM is very valuable to them. My point was more along the lines of every Nomad turning their back on them.
Anyway, not having a dig at anyone. I love you all. I hope you get the returns you deserve for your patience.
I was spot on with my calculation of $25mil for 2021 (based on taxes paid), which means my calculation for 2022 of $115mil is correct if oil stays where it is or production increases to match a drop in prices.
Purchase of property, plant and equipment ($7,136,000)
Net cash flow from investing activities ($8,248,000)
That's $15mil. Question for the AGM as to what 'Net cash flow from investing activities' is;
CE looking very likely to chartered.
Dividends
"We have worked to create sufficient distributable reserves to allow dividends to be paid. This required a formal Capital Reduction to cancel the share premium account and the deferred shares to boost distributable reserves. "
There was $240mil in that account.
"These cash flows, which include the payment of discretionary dividend"
It's hold for now as the revenue figures are very strong.
KK I'm really disappointed by your comment.
"The Brent crossover price, when the net returns from sales to the international market equate to the net returns for domestic sales, is approximately $90 per barrel."
I assume you can do gsce maths.
Q. What is the net return value?
somm, please re-read my post.
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/operational-update-3wxcr0b72mshq3h.html
McQueen, I've predicted $115 mil for YE 22, so I don't see why $160mil can't be breached in 23.
I'm not inlcuding the boat or deeps. This is just MJF and SY.
I crunched the numbers on deep success a few years ago and concluded this was a trillion dollar company.
Boaty was chartered at $25mil/year in 2017/18. It'll be a lot more now.
Orazimans are relocating to UAE where the dividend will be paid tax free. Only a divi of 1p generates enough cash to able to buy a house(s) to their standard. He'll need 10mil AED pp if he wants to secure residency for the next 10 years.
That's my prediction, lets see how far off I am.
Good to get all the sellers out at this level rather than at 20p when the financials come out.
Just seen plans for SY. Three new wells. 824, 826 & 827.
Amazing summer ahead for Casp (and for Kazakhstan .. but that's another story).
Checked on elicense - On 27th May Casp recieved permission to drill 802 but more interestingly those plans include A7 and A9. It appears the deep dream is still alive but will be kept on the quiet until they are certain.
All known facts in RNS for people who do their homework.
Another known fact is their much improved financials. It's understandable that investors want to hear it directly from Clive rather than posters on LSE but it doesn't take much effort to join the dots.
We are still trading at prices we had when there was a "significant doubt about the Group's ability to continue as a going concern" and only 0.7mil cash balance.
With 5000bopd they can easily generate revenues of $100mil even with further discounts on price.
That's the magic number needed to be valued at $1bn.
I think they will exceed their 5000 target and go the for their original target of 8000bopd from MJF.
Can't wait to see the financials.
Revenue
YE 31 Dec 2020 $14 mil (actual)
YE 31 Dec 2021 $28 mil (predicted)
YE 31 Dec 2022 $56 mil (predicted)
Based on the taxes paid on revenue CASP are doubling it year on year.
In a couple of weeks you'll know the revenue for YE'21. If it's anywhere close to what I have predicted then you know '22 is going to be awesome and the interims in Sept will see us in double digits.
This is insanely undervalued. Cash is king and jam tomorrow companies are being shunned. Casp have the jam now and have shown a willingness to share it.