Member Info for Adon30

6th June - 6,500 ft

10th July - 7,000 ft

Would expect a Q2 update later this week or early next week for non ops so think they will tag on a Paradox update.

My current guess is around 7,800 - 8,000ft with needing another 4 weeks to complete. That is based on previous progress. The pipe at the bottom would have been under the highest pressures.

If that is the current status then it would have been quicker and probably cheaper to have sidetracked the well. Although doubt that the well insurance would have covered that. I’m hoping that they are further along but keeping my expectations low.

Test results mid August not looking possible now and certainly looking more like April next year for any production. Let’s hope the winter weather is not as harsh this/next year.

Think we have a lot of short term and T20 traders coming back with the hope that is the case.

My prediction was mid August for results. Dsrt was September. Hopefully no later than that, but we need an update.

It is not a bad thing per se it is just a big case of balancing the books and I'd rather they had capital for Paradox development (Facilities, pipelines, water distribution, more drilling!) for now rather than spending it elsewhere.

If they do invest in more non ops that will set the picture that paradox development is going to take a lot longer as they will not be expecting the necessary income from it to develop quickly...

Half year results not due until September, but it will be interesting to know what cash on hand, debt, loan facility and cost of the well incident are, plus how much they have had back from insurers.

They have already had major fund raises for acquisitions including those in the paradox. The non-op that they have are enough, they are paying well, and it is time to focus on the main prize. No need to continually be empire building and stretch themselves so far that all they are doing is continually paying back or diluting share holders.

They still have more shares to issue from the paradox acquisition that are yet to be actioned because of all the delays, with a deadline of 15th December:

"A second tranche of 26,966,189 new Ordinary Shares will be issued to the vendor upon Zephyr's final investment decision with respect to the contract award to a primary contractor to commence construction activities to make the Powerline Road gas processing plant operational; and

o All equity issued to the vendor will be subject to a lock-up period which expires at the earlier of the date that first gas from the State 36-2 Well is sold via the Dominion Energy Utah, LLC ("Dominion Energy") 16-inch gas export pipeline; or 15 December 2023. "

The AGM statement released was just a follow on from the one in the Annual report. It is just that they are a month apart.

From the Final results RNS 26 June 2023:

"The Company's key goals for 2023 are to move its project in the Paradox Basin, Utah, U.S. (the "Paradox project") into full commercial production while continuing to grow its highly-profitable, cash generating non-operated asset portfolio."

From the AGM statement RNS 26 July 2023:

"Our key goals for the remainder of 2023 are to move the Paradox project towards commercial production while continuing to grow the non-operated asset portfolio."

However, it does now appear a strategic shift and informing the market by the company without shaking it. They have actually doubled down from going into "full commercial production", to a month later only moving "towards commercial production". So it seems that the company have also concluded that by the end of the year is now not realistic and the latest RNS reflects that.

Would be interesting to know when they feel it might be now. But that is going to depend on a number of factors and the company have stopped giving guidance on anticipated deadlines.

I think this year is a tight schedule now with all the delays and problems at State 36. If you were to expect production by Easter 2024 you would be less disappointed. But hopefully somewhere between the two dates will be the actual. We won't know until we get there though...

Permits still haven't been authorised for things and some have been in the system for 9 months! Just hope they get there applications turned around quicker going forward as they could significantly slow things.

Today was just following company legal procedure with having an AGM. There was never going to be any other information than that. From this afternoon onwards though any RNS could deliver good (or bad, but prefer good) news.

We can only guess at what stage they are at. Previously the contractors doing the job would have provided guidance as to the job being completed by end of June. Which is what the company let shareholders know. However as we now know the job has been much more difficult and taken a lot longer. They have not provided any further guidance because if they had said another 2 weeks and it was 4 weeks there would have been complaints. Now it is just a matter of waiting.

Each day brings it a step closer but also pushes out project completion. Unless they have something mightily impressive up there sleeves to speed it up.

A buy back of them would be nice. However a lot of expenses to come yet and pay back of debt more important at this time. Maybe 3 to 5 years time for that sort of thing and dividends. If the company isn’t sold before that.

The agm is being held in London but doubt the board will go. They’ll probably just remote in to the meeting. Rick may be there. It’ll be around 4am in Utah.

Don’t remember seeing anything about invites and you’d have to contact your broker. It more procedural than anything else.

Spotted this O&G post. IOG, TXP and ZPHR all outliers on the chart. TXP will move off this list shortly with an increased production. IOG has terrible performance compared to its data. ZPHR market cap seems high to others listed but has reasonable 2p reserves. It’s all down to the outcome in the paradox.

https://twitter.com/OilGasTracker/status/1683757505346691075?s=20

Yes could be secured against assets or the upgrade/ refurb of.

Something that adds value. Although state 36 should add value it is still high risk to someone lending money.

According to the 2022 results they still had $5.5m of debt facility remaining. So why didn’t they use that knowing that they’ll get the money back. Of which they’ve had $800k so far.

Unless they’ve maxed out the debt facility as well…..

It is just an agm….

It is a procedural requirement of any company.

Once cleared we can leave a news blackout period and hopefully move forward.

That was all in the final annual report released 26th June. The agm is to vote to approve that report.

They made $19.3m profit from output and had the following outstanding debt.

“ In February 2022, the Group secured debt funding of US$28 million and in December 2022 entered into a further 12-month revolving credit facility of up to US$8 million, of which US$2.5 million had been drawn down at 31 December 2022. The proceeds from these debt instruments were used to complete the Group's acquisition of non-operated assets in the Williston Basin.”

Everything is in the report.

They have not said there will be a presentation. It is just a procedural agm as I have posted before.

The information given today is nothing that wasn’t already in the public domain.

No real changes in the well pad images for the past 2 weeks since the update. But impossible to tell from images how much pipe is left in to pull out or how much they need to put back. Last update, 10th July, said they had 1,900 feet left to pull and inspect. Think the pulling will be the harder part rather than putting it all back and running the cement.

Nothing indicates that there has been a sudden change in pace. No whispers and no market response other than the MM games.

There was no idication or timeline given as to when they anticipate to test.

I am still thinking a couple of weeks into August before results. Depends if they just give an initial flow rate to apease the market or whether they want to (and are able to) run a longer test which will give more meaningful results.

Basically at present we are all guessing still until the next update is given. Which I expect will be after the AGM.

No evidence of having completed piping rework or notifications of any changes to the plan.

MMs have been upping the ask daily by 0.05 with no real buys or sells moving the price.... just doing there bit to create a market.

AGM on Wednesday 26th, but that is just procedural. Next RNS likely to be voting results for that around midday Wednesday.

Https://twitter.com/ProspexEnergy/status/1682007922467848192?s=20

Paradox was produced from before but conventionally (that is why federal 28 still produces). Zephyr are trying to unlock it as a play similar to the Williston. I don’t think it’ll be quite as prolific as that and does have its own problems. If it didn’t others would have done it already. But they are well on the path towards it. It will take time though as it is a new strategy and until they develop it the volumes are unknown.

For Federal 28 Well, I have looked at the old production figures from 2013 to 2019. I am unable to copy the table into here as the formatting goes all funny.

They did not produce every day of every month according to the data. The average was 23.1 days per month.

For this they achieved a daily average of

24.0 Bopd

102.3 Mcf Gas

7.8 barrels of Water

When it was first produced in 2008/2009 it averaged 89.7bopd & 191 Mcf Gas.

I hope this helps everyone's expectations of what Federal 28 could achieve in its later life in its current state. I suspect that they will apply for a permit and run a horizontal on this at some point (I have not seen one yet).