Haha Paul yep well if Strolls buys Mercedes F1.. doesn't that mean we then become Daimler's?
Whats the chances that Wolf comes over to Racing Point AM... and convinces Lewis too come too!?
also sorry all for the poor spelling/ typos- just wanted to get it out and didnt check through.
Cadellin.. its not really a blank canvas though is it? its the same operations.. with new models and a new CEO. Fixed cost will remain, debt is still there, core models etc.
Thanks John.. i just looked at the Ferrari share price over last 5 years very nice return..
Yes sorry I mean true recession and lasting..
Exactly Car.. this recession is based on one off event rather than a fundamental collapse in the Economy.
Recession just means negative GDP for 2 Quarters.. but yes second wave could throw us into an a true and lasting recession
But then every company will take a battering.. well maybe not FAANG.. which will never ever go down :)
Postman.. apparently we're on track for the much more optimistic V shaped recovery :) Id pay more attention to the Bank of England (although not that much) more than our glorious last minute chancellor, who had to call in his Manager from Goldman Sachs
Faidealer Ive read through quite a few of your posts, and I do appreciate your position as a LTH.. especially seeing this board with lots of people talking about big numbers only to disappear.. you also made reference to delivery orders.. assume you are in the brewery business yourself?
Personally I would be more than happy to see this slowly get back to a price of £1-1.20 over the next 6- 12 months.. Im quite practiced in my research- mainly on a fundamental basis. I think the opportunity is a good one here. not withstanding macro considerations.
18 p. what is your timeframe? speak to anyone you know... theyre all dying to get out right?! have pint in their local, have a nice meal. Getting on flight will be a pain in the a55. this lockdown makes you appreciate what you have.. and as it stand the lockdown has not materially effected peoples pockets.. this is an event not a recession.. so all things considered i believe we'll see massive spike in sales...but as for the share price.. it may take a bit of time to get over a £1.
And yes I know fairdealer.. we will have to pay the money back.. but i dont think anyone can say when and how that will materialise.. National debt has been high for a long time...
Hi all, so the DB5 I thought sales would be mainly this year and I was focused on the complete new picture starting from 2021.
Vanquish- Cars youre right its high.. but by then 2022.. I think they could get the margin there... but yes its offset by lower margins on others. and bear in mind, all the options add about 80% margin.. will be lots of options on a 300k Vanquish.
On my Revenue I have included servicing and parts.. although these may go up too.. and there will be more branding sales for sure.. the number is pretty nominal at the mo... This is Stroll's bag.. Branding!! maybe we see a Kors/ Aston Martin handbag??
divi- i would prefer them to retain and pay that debt down...
For 2022:
No Valkyrie but I think we should have the Valhalla sales start. I’m saying 200 out of the 500 and at a 50% margin. Gross Profit of £130m
IF the general branding and PR are working well with F1 and Bond, I expect slightly higher sales generally which I’m going attribute to the DBX- 500 more (2500 for the year) and 500 More Vantage (it has the lowest unit price of existing models, so let’s 500 across the existing). Additional Gross Profit of £50m.
So for 2022 assuming only the Valhalla as a Special. (We may have other by then?). and a modest uplift of core models from 6000 to 7000.
£-25m+ £130m + £50= £155m Net Profit
For 2023. My big assumptions is that Vanquish sales start. I think this is a fair assumption.
No Prices but I’d say a £300k car, at a 50% of margin and 500 units initially sold. £75m
WE also have remaining Valhalla’s units, 300 of them= £195m
And maintain 7000 total units of core models. IE £50m for the additional DBX and Other models
£-25m +75m +195M +£50m= £295m Net Profit
Finally 2024
Hard to say but at the least
1000 Vanquish sales = £150m plus the additional DBX and other models £50m
£-25m + £150m +£50= £175m Net profit
Also I’m sure we will have another £m special which will £100m…
So summary:
2021 £250m Net Profit
2022 £155m Net Profit
2023 £295m Net Profit
2024 £175 Net Profit plus a special £100m?
So what would the market cap be?
Now let’s assume debt is being managed, reduced. Brand recognition is strong. Economies are generally buoyant. You could stick a PE ratio of 15 on a Net profit.
That would give you anywhere between £2.2Bn and £4.5Bn or Share price of £1.50 to £3.00
However EBITDA valuations are also popular. On this basis we would add back, dep, am, in etc.
That means our figures would increase by about £200m. EBITDA multiple of 12?
We’re looking at a valuation of around £4bn- £6bn or SP of £2.70 to £4.
But bear two big points in mind. The debt has to be controlled and paid down, which may put a dampener on things.
AND these are earnings based and in say 3 years and I do think it will take that long, if the company is doing as well as these figures, the Brand value will add to the raw earning valuation significantly. That could be worth another £1 or £2.
Anyway.. please think of this as a bit of a fun exercise, but genuinely rooted in the possible. I did take the time to read the financial and be accurate and actually conservative on the units modelling.. 7000 total core units isnt a stretch? Big thing once again is control operational costs and getting that debt down!
Please please please dont take this as advice.. and happy to take any questions..
Ok so Ive spend a fare few hours putting some financial estimates together on future earning and what AML may be worth as a result....
Assumptions:
• That there are no further waves of COVID
• We do not go into a recession
IE we got back to a more business as usual trading environment
Estimates:
Related to model sales: Based on taken a low risk view of sales and margins
That operational costs do not increase beyond 2019
I do a bit of financial modelling, but IM in no way an accountant, so this more to give a view of that possible. Please DYOR and hopefully this helps a bit of structured debate.
In 2019 Revenue fell as did total number of units sold, £997m and 5800
I’m not going to look at 2020 because it’s a stop start year.
I want to consider 2021 +when we’re back in full swing, potential cost reductions etc. have taken place and new and special models are in productions
Revenue:
On the basis of existing models being driven hard to match demand, I’m using a very cautious 4000 units for existing models (that’s a drop of 1800 from 2019), plus 2000 for the DBX.30% margin of sale price for existing and DBX at roughly 35%. Units sold weighted towards the vantage for existing models.
For now I’m not going to include the specials…you’ll see why.
On the basis of 6000 units I expect Gross profit of £375m. This includes parts, servicing and some branding income but not specials.
To be clear this is Revenue minus cost of sales..
Operating expenses last year were £330m of which £130m was dep and amortisation. I expect actual expenses to reduce by 20% through cost reduction and optimisation but for now, I’m keeping it the same. I’m also assuming depreciation and amortisation stays at the same level to account for development for Specials…
I expect interest and finance to say at about £70m
Therefore we have:
Gross profit £375m
Op ex £330m
Interest £70m
Means net income of -£25m (minus)
They also list other income (loss on IPR) and adjusting operating (loss on the rapide E development). These are one off so haven’t been included.
NOW we add in the specials…!!
NOW as per the chat with coffee and RBM, I’m saying 30% of Valkyries sales are realised in 2020 and 70% in 2021..
Assuming a high profit margin (66%) on 105 units this adds £180m Gross profit.
I’m assuming all the AMR pros are sold in 2021, at 75% margin: £55m Gross Profit
The V12 speedster: margin of 50% and all 88 units sold in 2021. This adds £40m Gross Profit
For 2021 we now have:
£-25m + £180m +£55m +40m= £250m Net Profit before tax
See next messages..
RR, Rolls Royce? i think thats a tough one. I dont know the split of income but they have a significant exposure to the airline industry through engines.. and whilst planes will fly again, they wont be putting in massive orders anytime soon..
As Cars said debt is the big issue but a fully sighted one. I only bought in with the new CEO. I honestly didnt have faith in Andy Palmer.. Hes been there for 6 years and not for trying , hadnt achieved the right outcomes. AMG is a pretty lean operation, that efficiency cost cutting, LEAN process improvement etc and focus is what I expect to see. from Tobias.
Hi Merc, Aston just raised £500m so shouldnt need funding for the next 12 months at least provided DBX sales and production continue and no further lockdowns.. in the longer term, junk rating doesnt mean you cant get lending it just means the terms arent as good. As it stand theyre pretty fully leveraged hence why they raised the £500m through equity. I think if they get the DBX and valkyrie production going, look at a bit of debt restructure if possible (not more money jsut restructured), then they may choose to raise more cash next year at a share price of say £2+ If we get there. That means they can fast track some further development work, pay down debt. But Im hoping they wont need to by then.
Yes thanks RBM I saw that.. In a way the AGM is more than just the numbers its how they choose to represent the information. the fact that you say there is a buzz is exactly what you want..
I agree with Shazabo's point.. but more so if you are an 'investor' that reflects timeframes.. you shouldnt be worried about short term movements. as Ive stated they have secured their financial position to end of year as stated in an RNS earlier this year, even if we remain completely in lockdown. that was before they got 273m cash.
Look at whther they can weather the storm, whether they are doing the right things at the current time- (JV, capital exp reductions, disposals) and then look at where theyll be in 12-18months.. thats the value.
actually i think some of the comments are new, but the deal doesnt really make sense to me.
Why would Damiler leave Formula 1 because the financial challenges, to swap shares for Aston? Ok sure we all see massive value and future potential- but its not an easy journey...
Also stroll would own tow Formula 1 cars and no Aston Martin company.. would he want that?
I
Hi Jt, Again Im not sure its cost effective, but also maybe not in keeping with the prestige brand of Aston- to build what customers want.. it can take away and move too far from a core theme.. but hey thats just my view.. maybe dial in to the AGM? :)