maybe cars.. but if i put my conspiracy theory hat on.. i think its a bit of spin by pseudo journalists.. and wolff positioning- i think hes made it know he wants a change of some sort.. had a chat with his mate stroll.
Point is I think the max benefit for us as shareholders comes from, going as planned.. tobias comes in.. drives us forward.. we're repositioned in 12 months.. great sales, debt down.. future secured.. brand deals in place.. all of a sudden, this isnt a risk.. all of a sudden its not just Mercedes, other firms are interested in cash cow not a fixer upper...
Also i dont think its likely whatever happens they take it private..
the biggest reason to come to market is , well to make a return, but to raise cash..
If they go private they lose that option. And they still may need to/ want to in 12 months time, to pay down debt.. to start up another specials development...
wow you guys have been busy lol...
dont want to be a wet blanket.. but I dont see why Mercedes would want to drop out of being the most successful F1 team in years- possibly as its a financial burden.. running an F1 team isnt that profitable from what ive read.. to take on AML at a point on change but of great potential but with significant risk? Mercedes dont need the hreadache.
I see it as much more likely that theyd make an offer in 12 months once AML is repositioned.
I was trying to do a a few sums... basically i think Revenue will be down less than about 100k to May compared with 2019 which isnt bad. but yep agree with all the update points.
as for update effect... SP movements have seemed odd to me- hard to say what would happend.. one big day on the JV news.. spike early in the morning on tuesday but clsoe down. up day thursday due to boris.. down on friday.. slighly up today.
The positive is that I dont imagine there are lots of traders left waiting to sell, but who knows..
I was typing a response, but should have Known Cars, Paul youve got this :)
Snowboots, fair for you to ask the questions and I think its important that we continue to do so.
The two points Ill pick up on.. excess stock.. I did a few estimation calculations and modelled a drop to 4000 units of exsiting against 5800 last year. With the DBX and specials, the business is potentially still very comfortablly in profit.
Having lived through the last recession and running a commercial Finance business, I can assure you the not so wealthy- suffer significantly more than the wealthy as defined by erm.. the person who can buy an Aston.. >£150k income? Id say at least.
So to add, as I mentioned Im a Strategy consultant. Cost reduction programmes are pretty much driven by 3 things (assuming no fundamental change to offer or operating model).. supply chain contact renegotiations, process efficiency (means you can produce more faster and resource efficiency (means you have less people to do the same job). So yes I would imagine there maybe some resource reductions. Its the way they present this in any statement at the AGM.. if they say a significant and rapid diagnostic of existing operations to target efficiency improvements which aid productivity and reduce operational expenditure i think that would be fine
Barchid, a trial of food in pubs is the reason you cut your holding? ever been to a JDW and eaten? Not sure where you live but in London, erm its not gourmet, but in summer the pubs are packed, both in the city and suburbs.. a whiff of heat and the booze flys.
I think the biggest risk to AML's SP peformance is infections rates going up and a second wave. beyond that, I think is should be a really strong summer going into August when Tobias is on the ground. Im sure he'll be involved before then too.
This is almost the honeymoon period in a way.. theyve secured their cashflow for 12 months... so no immediate threats.. they're working on the DBX's... and the Specials soon enough..
As for this week.. really hard to say.. lets be honest if its spikes to 70s theyll be a lot heavy selling, taking it potentially 40s.. at which point theyll be some heavy buying :)
faidealer Id agree on the divi and reducing debt pile. american airlines did millions of share buybacks a similar way to return share holder value, ignoring the massive debt pile.
if this is truly the end of COVID then as per the Bank of England's guidance, we should see a v shaped recovery..
As for the chancellors words- i dont pay too much attention to the politicians. and im a central govt consultant :). they also planned for herd immunity when covid first came out...Bear in mind Rishi was drafted in at short notice as he plays ball- he was a junior minister. Hes saying what he thinks he needs to keep people aware to the worst case scenario.
But its naive of him to suggest a huge recession here when no data supports that and the BofE has said we will have a V shaped recovery. Recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP. so Q2 and yes Q3...
however, if covid persists into a second wave then yes this becomes a genuine recession not an 'event' related one.
My approach is invest in the longer term opportunity, but to maintain more cash than investments at the current time.
Mushy.... my advice to you is trust noone lol.. verify what people say and come to your own view point.. Also at a relatively young age,, you dont need to try and make 200% gains.. much better to try and average 20% year on year.Is something goes up a 100% really fast- great. slice 50% let your profit run.. the compounds are what make a buffet or munger. also finally as part my lecture i wish someone gave me.. ID be heavily in cash now.. maybe 30% invested at most.
RBM definitely value your input and for the record didnt see anything wrong in your post. But sometimes best to just ignore?
Im sure some people think my post on estimations was a ramp.. it wasnt.. I suggested what could be earned and how it could be valued. I also think the AGM isnt going to give everyone every answer. Tobias isnt on board yet. So we'll get some order updates.. and a statement of intent.. and thats fine. So I see the positive but i want to be realistic about the near term too.
notfalipper Im not sure what bad news you are expecting? If you mean share price may fall off a bit after the AGM, then yes that may happen.
As per the chat regarding recession, car numbers are down as you physically couldnt buy one. not becuase people didnt want to.. these are completely different dynamics.
Also bear in mind, my estimations are 2021 forward.. 2020 will be about getting back to business.
Regarding brexit- as long as they have a clear idea of securing their supply chains, I dont really see a massive impact. Even in a No Deal I thinks its unlikely we stick massive tariffs on as its just going to be reciprocated (Ive worked on Brexit Programmes for Central Govt). But if they do, it adds £20k to the price of a car. i dont believe it will stop those people who want to buy one. EMEA has 18% of sales. the % for Europe is obviously smaller still.