RE: Contract Win - PMG we are waiting !!6 Sep 2023 16:26
Smart Eye today announced 12 new design wins from a new OEM customer. This brings the total number of OEM customers to 20 and the number of design wins to 229. The estimated value of current design wins is SEK4,865m and the value of possible (likely) design wins on already won platforms is SEK4,095m.
The customer is a "big Japanese OEM with global production". The main Japanese OEMs are Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Suzuki, Mazda, Mitsubishi, and Subaru - and we believe Smart Eye already holds design wins from Nissan and Mitsubishi. Just from being a "big" OEM, we believe it is either Toyota or Honda. Regarding "global production", Toyota definitely fits the description. Honda has production in the USA, Mexico, and Japan, so it could likely also be categorized as "global", though we are not certain.
Considering the high value of the design wins (SEK500m) from 'only' 12 models, we think the car models will likely have 100% take rate, i.e., default.
Considering that the total sum for design wins plus additional platform potential 'only' increased by SEK500m, it seems to include the whole platform. At the same time, we think the concept of car platforms is being loosened, and we are unsure if it can be defined as easily as it used to be. The reason why is the upbringing of the likes of 'digital chassis', as defined by Qualcomm. Therefore, there could be much more potential from 'neighboring' car models than the announced SEK500m. Smart Eye also states that it expects the value of the design wins to increase as more features are added over time.
The start of production, i.e., the start of revenue generation for Smart Eye, is said to be in mid-2025. This indicates that the customer either had a previous DMS supplier or that no new models are to be released within the EU between July 2024 until mid-2025 (because of EU General Safety Regulation that demands DMS on all new car models released from July 2024).
Redeye is obviously very positive about the news, as it cements Smart Eye as the market leader in DMS. For now, Redeye maintains its fair value range.