Stefan Bernstein explains how the EU/Greenland critical raw materials partnership benefits GreenRoc. Watch the full video here.
So, how did it go up to nearly 5p, without substantive confirmation of that commercial, extractable find? I’d say if something triggered a move back to those levels, it would be deemed as having gone somewhere.
The testing schedule is unlikely to give your confirmations, but with a Reddit tailwind, could be back there.
AA
And I really hope we don’t get to 0.50p per share!
AA
Explore, find something worthwhile (like a few billion barrels of oil, for example), prove it, sell it! That normally gets cash in the bank.
Or just sell the company, job lot!
AA
At c0.07 AUS$, DW’s 111 million shares are worth about 8 million AUS, so not too sure if he really needs to sign on when he leaves. Had a bunch of options at 3p or 3c as well, I seem to remember, was that if it hit that figure, or did it have to stay there for a while?
Either way, he’s kind of set up!
AA
One thing to consider, in with all those original figures, could a sale of the company be being lined up, on success with this drill.
It’s in the back of my mind, with the new restrictions on leases etc, would really like to see ConocoPhillips boys around our offices!
AA
If it gets to £1, I won’t care how much a loaf of bread costs!
I’ve got an unviable average also - only need another 2 years’ worth of c20% daily rises to break even !
AA
Just querying this line :
this potential has now improved to almost 900 million barrels net to 88E - an outstanding result for our shareholders.
How is this an outstanding result for shareholders? An outstanding result for shareholders should surely be reflected in an increasing / multiplying SP.
Potential might be there but we keep tripping up over potential obstacles.
AA
Must admit, I wasn’t that convinced with the reporter‘s overly optimistic write-up ahead of Charlie - the numbers seemed to be not well interpreted.
Now, do we basically have operating rights on all of Alaska :
‘88E now has net half a billion acres of exploration ground across multiple world class assets with multi-billion barrel discovery potential on the North Slope’
Agree with other comments, the Peregrine are the realistic way forward in the short/ medium term.
AA
Keefy - not in the Next Oil Rush article, but you have to consider this is a reporter presented piece, which is largely accurate, but won’t include some of the details.
Ref horizontal, you’d need to get that from someone who knows the plans a bit better, like Dave Wall for example.
AA
I think it’s very naive to assume we find 480 million barrels of oil and it’s an SP of 21p. Yes, that is the appx calculation, but it’s a horizontal drill away (at least 1, targeted for 2021) a likely CR for it, and a buyer at $4 / barrel.
Don’t get me wrong - it’s a step in the right direction, but we won’t see that in a few weeks.
AA
HRG / Z..... they’re not even close on the keyboard!
Shaa - what kind of biggy are you after next year, the expected rise if oils is hit and flowing, the sale of the found reserves, or the longer term progression of the remainder of the conventional, and indeed the HRG (surely this is the Everest) ?
But the latter 2 parts will not be so soon, may be 2021.
AA
Hi,
Some very informative posts lately, have been catching up on the promo vid, and the Premier release – both sound pretty optimistic, so I’m assessing options in the next 6 months. There’s a number of key movements coming up which should allow some de-risking, or at least offer SP movement :
Run up to Charlie-1 – January 2020
Should get some increase on the SP, in the run up to Charlie-1. I know a few pence has been mentioned, not sure we’ll get to that, but it would be good to get to at least 1.5p – barring any disasters, I think the risk of Charlie-1 well not going ahead is very minimal.
Results of Charlie-1 – April 2020
If we’re successful on a number of the intersected plays, then we should get some decent movement on the SP. There’s net 480M barrels being tested, if this can be proved up, then there’s a reserve with a measurable value. Hopefully (and with the groundwork done, I’d like to think) the risk of not hitting any is very minimal. A bad result will trash the SP though.
There’s also the HRZ testing, which will follow, and may lead to some progression / farm-out / sale some way further down the line.
Sale of conventional reserves – after April 2020
There’s an appx value $3-4 / barrel, so pending success of Charlie-1 and proved conventional reserves, we could have an asset with a value of as much as just under £2B, which would make a massive difference to the SP, something in the region of 20p.
I don’t know if as soon as reserves are proven, along comes a buyer with a large cheque, or indeed how difficult it is to sell. Risk = ?? Premier have been mentioned, but their market cap is only about £730M, and although its not impossible for them to buy something at $2B, not sure they would want to.
HRZ / remainder of conventional – May 2020 onwards
The remainder of the conventional (think its about 300M barrels net to 88E) and the progression of the HRZ will be massively facilitated by some money in the coffers.
The HRZ is potentially much bigger than the conventional – there’s mention of an informal farm-in process being under way, but if there’s money to progress this internally, possibly we won’t have to give away a large chunk of this ??
Thoughts…. to buy more now, to de-risk at various points, or to sit tight….?
AA
Well.... there is some relevance. If oils continues to go up, do you not think any deals to find / extract oil would be more desirable? So the unconventional might be more attractive, as well as may place some focus to expedite current prospects.
AA
is flying...... maybe they know they got a good deal and lots of oil!
AA
Jeeeesh..... just looked in and it’s up .05p, I think my browser must have an error, so used to seeing it red and down by 3% every day - is anyone else’s browser playing up?
AA
The recent Next Oil Rush article makes for some pretty bullish reading, but I don’t agree with the author’s numbers. I’m ok assuming the conventional is c50% of Icewine, but not with the amount of 88E that has been sold, specifically :
Area A, c80% of the whole conventional (2,400 MMBO of 2,896 MMBO), not 40% as in the article.
The article mentions figures of 1.75% of 88E to be sold for an extra $15M - what the 1.75% is actually referring to is the potential (uplifted on success) value of 88E that PMO will pay for the additional asset, areas B & C, not the percentage of the asset.
PMO have bought a 60% WI in Area A, which by my calculations is a bit more than 80% of the whole conventional (2,400 MMBO of 2,896 MMBO)
On successful discovery, PMO can purchase 50% WI of about 20% of the rest of the conventional, in areas B & C (496 MMBO)
This would give PMO 1,440 MMBO + 248 MMBO, which is 1688 MMBO. This is about 58% of the conventional. Also leaves 88E with 1,009 MMBO (not an inconsiderable amount…)
Factor in the HRZ at very roughly the same size, and we have given PMO appx 29% of Icewine (conventional & HRZ). I’m assuming successful drilling and the take up of areas B & C, if its not successful then we’ve got bigger issues than percentages.
I’m not dousing the flames here, as its probably quite a good deal – I would have thought that a farm-in partner like Conoco or Exxon would have demanded bigger percentages, but the articles numbers didn’t read right to me.
Also, I expect the SP would have reacted better (short term) with a Conoco or Exxon named partner, although in time, better value may well be realised with this deal. To be left with > billion barrels of conventional is pretty significant – I don’t know how quickly this can be monetised, but on the previously quoted cost of extraction, there’s plenty enough for a massive SP rise.
Lastly, DW’s comments of ‘a partner might get bored with farming-in and decide to just buy us out’ – I guess these won’t really apply with PMO.
Can someone pls cross-check my logic, think I’ve got the numbers largely correct, but good to get another opinion.
AA
S4K - ‘over 1.2 mil in shares’
Is that actually over 1.2 mil ‘in’ shares, or over 1.2 mil shares. If the former, and in 88, then well played and admiration for the cajunas!
AA
Maybe, but we might get a note from DW as to why Premier was the preferred farminee, also on the splitting of the conventional, which hadn’t really been considered.
AA