George Frangeskides, Exec-Chair at Alba Mineral Resources, discusses grades at the Clogau Gold Mine. Watch the full video here.
I've been a lurker at WSB for years, never been into any of their insane bets myself - most of them make my junior minor stocks in AIM look like flipping bonds! However yesterday was the last straw - nabbed 5 shares in GME to be part of this madness.
2020 (hell, the last 4 years) taught us that many of the old ideas and conventions are facing a reckoning and yesterday we saw a meme forum that celebrates life-shattering losses as highly as life-changing gains unite people like AOC and Ben Shapiro of all people in a common cause. Change is coming, whether or not this change will benefit people like us in the long term remains to be seen but 2021 is already shaping up to be another bonkers year.
I have to say I'm enjoying the quiet anticipation over here, nice contrast to UFO which has been utterly bonkers the last couple of weeks!
Not long now, hopefully, to see how the new JORC assessment looks after a year of prospecting. I think its worth repeating that its not just these new deep diamond bores that are yet to be added to our overall resource assessment at Lighthouse but the drill results from as far back as December 2019 as well as all the excellent airborne geophys modelling too. Back in Feb the conservative estimate by Rockfire's brokers was a doubling of estimated gold resource at Lighthouse as compared to the old JORC - obviously not including any of our results since then.
My position is that while its always nice to see 'bonanza' grades and it's impact on volatile AIM share prices the cold hard fact is we are valued, as a company, by the assessment of mineral resource believed to be below our tenements. In this regard we are severely undervalued at this time. In my opinion a JV a la GGP comes after we have the paperwork in place - This paperwork is the new JORC and it is on the way.
GLA
You're buying shares on AIM. AIM is a casino. Don't blame others for your misfortunes, even if they are acting in bad faith. Again - AIM is a casino.
At the end of the day you are either investing in a company you believe to eventually be worth more than the market feels it is right now or you are gambling on a payoff in the future. Many of us sit in the former camp and will be sitting on our hands for a long time yet.
We still haven't had the real results from this round of drilling and still havent updated the JORC on which the mcap is really based. The current JORC doesn't even include results from the end of last year.
Indeed. Sit in an AIM listed share for long enough and you get to see everything. Anyone else remember the warrant churning from December and January? Every piece of news was sold in to creating this mad (short term) situation of investors consistently loosing value from what was very good news.
Patience is indeed a virtue - ignore the daily frothing and concentrate on the long-term goals. We still need a new JORC - our old one (that the true 'worth' of this company is based on by the big investors) doesn't even include last December's results! Sure, the sp will likely shoot up on the (hopefully) excellent news of the deep diamond drilling campaign currently underway but the BIG effect will be what it does to our JORC assessment. Currently we're going to at least double the old one, god only knows how much bigger it will be given positive deep drill results.
Patience, GLA and DYOR
Or even better - have a read of Allenby Capital's report from Feb:
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research_933_539603981.pdf
They estimate the risked sp (with a placing that we've already had) by the end of the year to be 1.9p. The conservative assumption made here was a mere doubling of the old JORC assessment which going by the results since this report was made is very conservative indeed.
The point is that while short term spikes in SP can be driven by the usual rainbow chasers on AIM, the big money is still basing its assessment of the company on the old JORC which is now crazily out of date. Once this is updated later in the year then we can start seeing the sustained, big rises that all the usual AIM rampers keep harping on about.
GLA
Got to be pretty much gone as far as I'm concerned - one tranche of them expired in April and if the SP action is anything to go by the rest of them aren't being executed (can't remember if it was the 1.5 or 1p warrants technically left). The selling action we experienced at the beginning of the year after the initial drill results was mostly blamed by many to be the exercising of warrants. We've been having a good sustained rise for a while now - used to be that every buy triggered what looked like a warrant sell.
Been a while eh! Been holding since December (with some hefty averaging down). Peanuts in the long game though - gonna be here till they pull some of that gold out of the ground at least.
Looking forward to the JORC update later in the year - thats the big turning point IMO, our market valuation is still based on what are now some very old JORC numbers. Happy days.
The Allenby Capital report from February (http://www.allenbycapital.com/research_933_539603981.pdf) concludes that with a 35% risk on drilling successes, a bunch of assumptions for the new JORC and a placing to continue keeping us afloat the SP by the end of the year should be 1.9p. That is considerably higher than now, with a placing, a very conservative assessment of risk and resource assumptions that are now well out of date. In short - I would not worry about a placing diluting what is a very, very cheap sp given what we know we have underground.
The relative number of shares in issue for what we have in the ground is, imo, very low. We have to be realistic - this is an exploration firm with no revenue being generated yet. The current phase of drilling appears to be paid for by the warrants being exercised so we're golden to get a revised JORC formulated by year end. However we will need operating costs to be covered eventually - it has to come from somewhere.
The Allenby report is the closest thing we have to a proper estimate of where we may be by year's end - its a good read for anyone invested here. GLA
Indeed, one of the stand-out lines for me is "Previously, an east plunge was inferred, however, this is the first unequivocal evidence to support that inference". The very worst thing that could have happened would have been a weak (or rather strong?) magnetic target which would have meant the next phase of deep drilling would have carried considerably more risk.
This reprocessing of the old mag data has done the polar opposite - significantly de-risked our first proper deep-drilling campaign into what is looking more and more like a Mt. Wright mk2 gold deposit. A drilling campaign, i would remind you, that is fully paid for.
Great news
Excellent update and really glad to hear about the reprocessing of the 2011 mag survey data. As an environmental physicist myself its always good to hear about a good dataset not going to waste! Huge confidence in the team's planning abilities - although putting 500m holes in the ground is no mean feat at the best of times this kind of survey-based focusing of exploration efforts will really boost their chances of hitting any big targets down there.
I feel like the best news though is that we are looking at potentially multiple sites within the same tenement, all in a small geographic area. Remember that the current JORC, from which our current evaluation is really based, is now crazily out of date. We are severely undervalued in a very, very big way.
GLA
So here's a reminder of Allenby's report from earlier in the year concerning Rockfire's near future:
http://www.allenbycapital.com/research_933_539603981.pdf
Allenby figure a SP at the end of the year(ish) of 1.9p - however this includes an assumed dilution and a 35% risk on their gold assets and an assumption on the JORC upgrade we should see by the end of the year. I.e., the current Mcap and SP are crazily undervalued - more than 100% where we are now, and could be significantly higher if:
A) Deeper drills confirm a larger, deeper and higher grade resource than Allenby have assumed
B) The success we have seen continues and is better than the 35% risk Allenby have assumed
C) There either isn't a placing or a smaller one than Allenby have used in their calculation.
The fact remains that Rockfire is a sleeping giant - remember that the real valuation of these resources comes from the JORC and ours is now very out of date having not yet been updated with the drill results that got most people here excited.
GLA
Plenty of long-term holders still about I'm sure. However like most (or maybe all?) i'm sitting on heavy book losses so not much left to do but wait it all out.
I suppose a worry might be that we get terrific news while the extreme market uncertainty around the virus is still in full swing which could damp it. However as we know the long-term game for Rockfire is still a ways off - more than likely the world will have stabilised by the time our big news (new JORC, scoping studies for shallow mining operations / JV) comes about.
This is great - thanks for posting it. Great to have all that information in one document. Shame we can't have stickies - makes very good reading for people coming to ROCK for the first time.
Nothing we don't know already of course! But the coarse estimates of what the updated JROC could look like are interesting
Its a fair question, with Rockfire's claim being in an area of QLD's bush. Queensland is burning down South on the border with NSW currently.
Link to QLD's fire service: https://www.ruralfire.qld.gov.au/map/Pages/default.aspx
We all would mate! Nothing better than seeing an investment go a healthy shade of blue! I think a lot of us (me included) have been both frustrated and baffled by the warrant situation the last couple of weeks but this last set of drill results should, IMO, cement Rockfire's future potential. I have to admit I was concerned there would be some mediocre or poor drill results, astonished just how good they've been. Hats off to them, they've pulled a blinder here!
What? Deramp? The last paragraph is literally anything but.
I hate ramping almost as much as deramping - all this talk of 'boomage' and '5p by close' doesn't do anyone any favours.
The key word is 'investing' - I'm here because I believe in Rockfire's potential.