Member Info for 54retiresoon

#AVCT administering one of the most understood and toxic chemotherapies available at x2.5 the maximum dose thanks to revolutionary patented technology.

at x2 side affects minimal compared to known side effects of Doxorubicin and therapeutic levels of drug in tumours.

Commonly reported side effects of doxorubicin include: severe nausea and vomiting, nausea and vomiting, and alopecia.
Myocardial damage can occur with DOXOrubicin hydrochloride with incidences from 1% to 20% for cumulative doses from 300 to 500 mg/m(2) when DOXOrubicin hydrochloride is administered every 3 weeks. The risk of cardiomyopathy is further increased with concomitant cardiotoxic therapy.

Technology could be applied to a whole range of off patent and patented chemo drugs, with animal studies on AVA3996 showing data remarkably consistent with 6000.

Market cap $400m. How many noughts do you add 1,2 or 3?

Why are people expecting cohort 5 to have started already. Science Day indicated Cohort 4 was well below MTD. Therefore Cohort 5 is likely to be at a much higher dose say x2 cohort 4 rather than say 25% - this will require regulatory approval. Regulator will probably approve new trial design covering doses for 5 & 6. Avacta will RNS Cohort 5 start and dose - a signifcant increase in doseage should be very well received by the market but probably won't be.

In my view given everything that is known about Doxorubicin if P1b satisfies FDA that AVA6000 is better than Dox why would the FDA stop at licensing AVA6000 just for STS?

Timster - agree with all of these I would add Pension Lifetime Allowance scrapping which means I won't be off loading all my Avacta pension holding if the share price hits £5. Existing holders will hold for loner and It should encourage other SIPP holders with largish pots to take more risk with a proportion of their holding as they are not losing over half of any gain to the taxman and also avoids inheritance tax on death.

Shares currently at a discount to NAV so would not expect a fund raise until that situation changes.

Timster I would agree with you if what was going into the tumour was a new drug but it isn't its Doxorubicin. Being able to deliver doxorubicin to the tumour for longer is life preserving and with much lower side effects. Dr. Tap will know early and will be pressing the case.

After six cycles (i.e. 15 weeks) of each cohort in 1b doxorubicin and AVA6000 Dr. Tap will have the evidence to satisfy himself if AVA6000 is better. If patients in both cohorts are still alive then he will know that dox cohort can no longer have any more dox and will on average have a couple months more of life. He will also know that he can continue to dose the AVA6000 cohorts and so they should continue to survive while receiving AVA6000 (possibly another 36 weeks if deliver 18 cycles) even if AVA6000 is only as effective as standard dox. The quality of life for those patients in those first 15 weeks will also be better. FDA fast track will swiftly follow.

should read if your lucky

Fascinating talk from Dr Tap. The standard treatment for STS is Dox they can treat you for 3-4 mths till you hit MTD if your likely and the average survival is 6 mths because as soon as you stop treating the cancer progresses.

It makes clear the need to find the MTD for AVA6000. If you could deliver 18 cycles of an efficacy AVA600 STS patients could get at least an extra 9 months of survival and with better quality of life for that time (due to better safety profile) That would be a massive improvement.

I did believe them because I have been invested for over three years (pre-covid) but the wider market didn't because there were no numbers. The numbers are material new information.

Surely if someone from Avacta has stood up in a room and given details of comparisons between dox in biopsies and blood this is material information which should be disclosed before markets next open i.e. in 17 minutes

B.

The best option for mankind - AVA6000 fast tracked by FDA , all big pharma having the option to license out Precision to improve the safety and tolerability of their blockbuster drugs whilst restarting the patent clock on payment of suitable fees to Avacta.

If you are an investor in Avacta then today's share price is irrelevant. The share price the day of or day after the Science Day will also be irrelevant. DYOR including reading others that is freely available, work out the market size of chemo without side effects and probability of AVA6000 coming to market based on information to date and your only worry is the Lifetime Allowance.

Very bullish apart from valuation £12-£15 per share.

If there is any price sensitive information planned on the science day then that would be RNS'd that morning. However if anyone goes off script and says too much then a further RNS would be needed during the day.

DT article talks about Enhertu becoming a $17bn pa drug. US drug price is approx £2000 per cycle (cf doxorubicin under £100). I would not call it very precise though - see below. Potential for AVA6000 & PRECISION to disrupt oncology market is enormous.
 
Enhertu side effects
The most common side effects of Enhertu are:
nausea, fatigue, vomiting, hair loss, constipation, decreased appetite, anemia, low white blood cell counts, diarrhea,
cough

Enhertu also can cause other serious side effects. While these serious side effects are less common, it’s important to know about them:

Interstitial lung disease: Interstitial lung disease is a general term for disorders that cause inflammation and scarring in the lungs. The scarring makes lung tissue stiff, which makes it difficult to breathe. You should be closely monitored for signs of interstitial lung disease while being treated with Enhertu and tell your doctor right away if you experience shortness of breath or have a dry cough.

Heart problems: Enhertu may cause serious heart problems, including some that don’t have symptoms, such as reduced heart function, and some that do have symptoms, such as congestive heart failure. Symptoms to watch for include swelling of the ankles or legs, shortness of breath, cough, or weight gain of more than 5 pounds in less than 24 hours.

The current share price implies a chance of success for AVA6000 of 2-3%. Based on what's in the RNS/CEOs talk with Paul Hill what do you think is the chance of success for AVA6000?

For me its a lot closer to 50% than 2% - and the value of Precision both in the pipeline and licensing is worth more than the value you place on AVA6000.

I'd be wanting multiply shares in AZN for each AVCT one I hold.

Let us assume that Avacta announce that AVA6000 is cleaving and has minimal side effects. What would the market be worth?

Doxorubicin sales in 2021 were $1.1 billion. That is for an off-patent drug with limits to maximum lifetime dose (MLD) and restrictions on who can receive it - by age and other conditions eg. heart/liver disease and some very nasty side effects.

Doxorubicin is relatively cheap compared to most modern cancer treatments.

AVA6000 is dosing at higher doses than dox and can be given for longer if no MLD.

Based on the above it is not impossible to imagine that AVA6000 could be a $5bn a year drug based on increased price relative to dox, longer cycles, previously excluded patients, replacing more expensive drugs with more side effects. It would be good for Avacta to have commissioned some analysis to evaluate market size when they release the update.

Details of licensing deals at the same time would also help the market to value not just AVA6000 but the platform. Several licensing deals also provide further income to fund Phase 2 and TMAC progression.

Roll on the RNS.

The topical winner of the day was at Deauville - "Heal The World"

Criteria include
In Phase 1b part of the study only: At least 1 lesion, not previously irradiated, that can be accurately measured at baseline as =10mm in the largest diameter (except lymph nodes, which must have a short axis =15 mm) with CT or MRI scan and that is suitable for accurate repeated measurements.