Member Info for 54retiresoon

If Danaher were to make a takeover offer of 3 billion dollars that is at current exchange rates an offer of approx. £2.5 million (6.3x current share price is approx. £12).

As I've said before if Danaher are prepared to make a takeover bid they must have total faith in our Covid-19 test. £12 as a takeover offer from Danaher before test is approved would not tempt me. The beauty of a successful test is not just the immediate very large revenues. It is that those large revenues :-
fully fund the development of our cancer trials;
highlight Affimers as a modern replacement for antibodies;
create a whole new market for direct to customer diagnostic tests that Avacta can develop in the future.

Special dividend next year anyone of £48 per share (cost £10bn) with £5bn left to fund future cancer trials and increase the PhD headcount to develop future diagnostic tests to sell via Medusa19. Please note based on my guesses as to all the variables listed by cautious.

Scary just done the maths on my figures - 95% chance of £4.5bn from Medusa19 collaboration and £12bn from bulk sales - profit of over £15bn in year following launch.

Probability rapid covid-19 test is successfully released to mass demand: 95%

Medusa sales - households/businesses
- Average price per test sold : £25/$30
- Cost of manufacturing per test: £1.50
- Other costs per test £8.50 (including marketing, Cytiva payment, fulfilment)
- Split say £7.50 Avacta, £7.50 Medusa19
- Number of months of mass demand: 12
- Average # sold per month of mass demand: 50 million

Probability rapid covid-19 test is successfully released to mass demand: 95%

Bulk sales
- Average price per test sold : £12.50/$15
- Cost of manufacturing per test: £1.50
- Other costs per test £1
- Split say £5 Avacta, £5 Cytiva
- Number of months of mass demand: 12
- Average # sold per month of mass demand: 200 million

@cautious - Great idea. I think that the model needs to be slightly more complicated as there are two very different strands to sales - sales to governments, multi-nationals (e.g. airlines, cruise operators), bill gates foundation etc where volume will be higher, price lower, costs lower and no medusa19 involvement and the direct to consumer market - lower volume, higher price, extra costs for medusa but share in their profit.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/revealed-design-flaw-leaves-coronavirus-test-swabs-long-fit/

You couldn't make it up. Perhaps what we need is a test that doesn't need to be sent back to a lab and gives an accurate result in 10 minutes.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8349667/Coronavirus-immunity-six-months-casting-fresh-doubt-immunity-passports.html

Knowing if you have it now and being able to provide a treatment could be even more important and for longer if covid-19 antibody protection is as per other coronavirus infections.

Go here which will hopefully answer all questions you have without paying someone qualified to give advice. https://www.gov.uk/capital-gains-tax/

Probably need a price closer to £20 to make the FTSE 100 (you need to look at mkt value of companies of those at the top of FTSE 250)

RichKen

The long term potential for this new distribution network is massive. The POC diagnostic test market is currently $20-$30 billion per annum. Avacta could by the time Covid 19 testing is slowing down have developed a whole range of diagnostic tests using its Affimer technology to sell around the world to a massive customer database who will trust the Avacta name.

I think this is an exciting RNS not just for the Covid test but for Avacta diagnostics well into the future.

It will be the best financial deal for Avacta with prompt payment and a bigger share of the cake as no retailers cut. The big prize will be longer term gaining a slice of the $25 billion per annum POC diagnostic market as Avacta can develop new affirmers for other tests and will by then have a great platform, name recognition and a massive client base.

A takeover looks less likely after this deal but FTSE 100 looks more likely IMO.

Only 157

I'm particularly intrigued by IP Group's decision to sell. They are the reason I started investing in Avacta back in January. I had first invested in IP before researching their holdings in listed companies and going in directly to TRX, DMTR & AVCT.

I think Avacta will try and partner with as many different partners as possible with the antigen tests to get scale needed if as good as hoped and someone different to work on developing the treatment.

A $1bn market value equates to a share price at current exchange rate of £4 give or take a few pence.

I suspect, if Cytiva's test results match expectations, Danaher will be putting in an offer early next week for Avacta. Why have a slice of the Covid POC test cake when you can have the whole thing with the cherries, hundreds and thousands and cream on top of Covid therapy development, cancer treatments and the modern replacement for antibodies.

An initial offer of $1bn would, IMO, be rejected by the Board. I could see them being able and willing to make a cash offer of close to $3bn from recently announced fundraising plus recent sale proceeds of $825m from sales as part of the approval for acquiring Cytiva.

I would see any offer from Danaher as a massive endorsement of our technology and I see no reason to sell out for any offer of less than 11 figures (in pounds - to be clear).

1.POC Test
2.Hospital test using unused mass spectrometers
3.Treatment
4.Cancer treatments

Currently only leaving vaccines for others to develop. This company is amazing!!!!

There are over 10 companies in ftse 250 valued at over 3 bn so would need to meet Ftse requirements and have a share price in excess of £15

I would expect that the Gates Foundation will be ordering tens of millions for Africa as will our Foreign Aid budget.