Member Info for 54retiresoon

My open offer entitlement was 310 shares but I requested (via Fidelity) 1410 and got all of them. Very happy

£3.65 licker
£3.95 54retiresoon
£4.08 spights

It doesn't but if Lloyds is generating 7.5p per share at Q3 it stands to reason that at full year - there is a significant amount available to distribute to shareholders. I would expect this to be in the form of an increased div (say 2.5p in total for year) with potentially a similar amount spent on buybacks if year end eps was say 10p.

The key number from the results for me are Earnings per Share for the 9 months of 7.1p. The divi is going up along with a buyback program at the full year.

£3.51 pastyc
£3.70 54retiresoon
£4.05 Spights
£10 y11

Should be a trading update next week. NAV should rise signifcantly even without an increase in property valuations. They have sold 2 properties at a £17.5m uplift to NAV at 30th June (+1.3p), share buybacks in quarter should add an extra 1p and revenue should exceed dividends paid by c. 0.3p (allowing for reduced revenue from sales). NAV (before property valuation adjustments) should be around 127.5. Buybacks at 20%+ discount to NAV.

It must also be getting close to point where dividend starts to rise at which point I'd expect a further re-rate.

3.64

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/11/false-positive-lateral-flow-tests-children-double-week/

They don't know why but false positive rates on lateral flows used in schools increase from 8% to 13% in a week. For crying out loud use a proper test.

https://www.bmogam.com/uploads/2021/08/2a64973c59f13a9ee889868cdb55e49d/bmo-commercial-property-trust-factsheet.pdf

Page 2 shows properties valued over £30m

Property sale was £20m - so could be up to that amount.

If Medusa19 get home use approval then I imagine that millions of Boohoo online buyers will very soon hear about this amazing test.

Macromolecular protein and peptide therapeutics have been proven to be effective in treating critical human diseases precisely. Thanks to biotechnological advancement, a huge number of proteins and peptide therapeutics were made their way to pharmaceutical market in past few decades. However, one of the biggest challenges to be addressed for protein therapeutics during clinical application is their fast degradation in serum and quick elimination owing to enzymatic degradation, renal clearance, liver metabolism and immunogenicity, attributing to the short half-lives. Size and hydrophobicity of protein molecules make them prone to kidney filtration and liver metabolism. On the other hand, proteasomes responsible for protein destruction possess the capability of specifically recognizing almost all kinds of foreign proteins while avoiding any unwanted destruction of cellular components. At present almost all protein-based drug formulations available in market are administered intravenously (IV) or subcutaneously (SC) with high dosing at frequent interval, eventually creating dose-fluctuation-related complications and reducing patient compliance vastly.

If we are the sovereign test then there is no way the Government will allow Avacta to be sold to a foreign buyer. GSK are tied up with splitting out their consumer division so are unlikely to be bidding in my opinion

Sorry typo $311bn by 2026

The chemotherapy drug market in 2019 was $145bn and predicted to be $311bn by 2016. The big value in Positive Pro-doxorubicin trials is to see a host of big Pharma rushing to get their patented chemeo drugs precision'ed to allow them to get a fresh patent and prolong their revenue stream on top of any non-patented drugs that Avacta develop.

Initially I think our multiple will be much lower as the market will deem the profit as short-lived. However, this will miss the following impacts.

1. The Government wants to build a long-term UK based diagnostic industry . If we are the provider of the sovereign test that puts the diagnostic division in the prime position to provide early diagnostic tests for the NHS across a wide range of diseases.

2. The profits from a successful antigen test will turbo charge the therapeutics pipeline beyond AVA600.

3. A successful antigen test puts Affimers in the shop window as superior to antibodies and will drive more big Pharma beating a path to Avacta's door to use them.

The MHRA response RNS will be intra-day and almost certainly accompanied by details on manufacturing capacity which is conditional on CE marking.

It could hopefully finally be the week that I change my name to retirednowthankstoAvacta

What I am looking forward to this week.

1. CE mark from MHRA for AffiDX.
2. Details of manufacturing partners and capacity in UK.
3. Details of manufacturing partners and capacity in the rest of Europe.
4. Ties in with companies in US and Asia to manufacture AffiDx or supply them with AffiRx.

Other Nice to haves

5. Confirmation that we are the UK Government's sovereign test
6. Confirmation that AffiDX successfully detects Indian variant
7. Something from the Therapeutics side

What a surprise their using Chinese vaccines - as useless as their covid tests