Member Info for 2reincarnated

opportunity after opportunity goes begging, as funds tied up in PF. Today we have seen Carillion crumble by over 40%, at some point it will be a buy.

I have used the example of what happened from June 2013 to Oct 2013 on many occasions to show how a small increase in sales caused the SP to almost triple. If PF can show that Hovis is improving to the point where 1. Gores buys the remaing stake of PF or 2. The whole lot is bought by the likes of Grumpy (Mexico) etc. This equates to cash coming in to reduce debt. If this coincides with an increase in interest rates helping the pension debt, then who knows where the SP could go.

Thanks for your message. I based 75p this autumn on what would have possibly been the SP this march had we not had the profit warning. There is no reason with a decent Q1 that we do not get to 57p again pretty soon. If the Q1 results can demonstrate that PF can grow whilst cutting costs, then who knows? Remember in June 2013, a 2% rise in sales helped triple the SP.

I'm more annoyed at the situation then anyone could possibly be. However, we need to focus now on what may happen, not what should have happened. There simply has to be a twist to this tale.

We can now safely assume Nissin will not be bidding for this company and if another bidder was out there they would have bid by now. The idea behind Nissin buying 20% was to stop a hostile takeover by Mc Cormick at under 75p, because this is what the analysts suggested may get a deal done. Hate Darby or not, you have to credit him with not allowing Mc Cormick from not getting the company below 75p, because GD must have thought the SP would hit 75p by March 2017 and if it were not for the November profit warning, we could have gone from 57p to 75p by March 2017. At this point those who wanted to sell and run could have, knowing they had got 10p per share more than they would have from Mc Cormick. i still feel a decent Q1 could give this share the momentum to hit 75p by autumn and at that point Nissin may well take there holding to the threshold.

shocking.

http://www.talkingretail.com/products-news/grocery/homepride-launches-kids-sauce-range-05-07-2017/

https://www.esmmagazine.com/premier-foods-batchelors-pasta-pots/45817

a few years they went from 20p to about a pound. I think they will drop further, but how low, not sure.

If PF shares rise on the back of flat/good results, then you could easily be in a situation in which you could flog your PF shares and end up with more Debenhams shares than you held in PF. Is it just a matter of time before PF calls a profit warning? will the excuse be the hot summer or a slow start to 2018? I think I may consider selling half my PF shares, but woudn't touch Debenhams yet.

it was 3 years.

that as GD said in May results ''we have made a good start to the year'', if that is the case and we have a good summer, there is no reason why the SP cannot recover to at least the 57p reached last year, before the ''extended summer'' caused a profit warning. Indeed, there must be a company out there that can buy PF and work with Nissin, because all Nissin want is to continue producing under the Batchelors name and nothing else. If the company do not compete with Nissin anywhere else, than they can work with Nissin, however, expect no more than 75p.

Anyone think so?

Prior to the McCormick bid PF were already in discussions with Nissin about a cooperation arrangement. The act of McCormick bidding led to GD tipping off Nissin who would have expressed their desire to buy a stake and were therefore able to buy at 63p. Had GD not tipped off Nissin, we may have seen a "hostile" Mc Cormick bid.

what I cannot understand is if GD knew Nissin were not going to buy the whole lot, why would he allow them to buy a stake and create this ''poison pill'' knowing it would prevent others from bidding?

SP rises to 42p on low volume, yet with a little more volume it is down. I rest my case.

like I said in my post previously, if PF have instructed Credit Suise to find a buyer, we may not have to wait too long. I used the example of Weetabix who were in the same situation and within 4 months they were sold.

and not start making end of the day predictions, we all know what happens when we start doing that!!!

What if they just state the obvious, that is PF be bought by another food manufacturer, but the Nissin stake is a blocking stake, unless Nissin fancy themselves as a Hedge Fund. They bought at 63p let's be reasonable and accept, if no bid comes, we may not get to 60p for years or may get to 30p this year when the weather is blamed again. So let's accept that 70p with no strings attached, is the best we can get. I still fail to see what Nissin would have gained, it is not as if they can make so much out of selling their noodles under the Batchelors brand. This then leads me to believe there may be the prospect of another established food manufacturer entering alongside Nissin and buying a stake.

If PF are at the point where they are asking Credit Suisse for advice on whether they should sell off a brand or sell the whole company, it means Nissan are 100% out of buying the whole company. There are companies out there that may be suitable, but won't make a direct bid for it. However, in Dec 2017, the owners of Weetabix, Bright Foods did the same thing with Goldman Sacs and by April 2017 it was sold. The "layman" would say "why the hell did a company need GS to tell them to buy Weetabix" the answer to that is at this level a companies current capacity needs to be expertly matched to its future. Companies to not have this knowledge " in house" The moral of the story is, there is hope for PF.