Member Info for 1pencil

My choice would unlikely be biopharma as it takes too long to research, HCM is a bit different as I have followed the story for years since Slater Investments purchased their holding.

If I was to diversify it would be into Alibaba where I have benchmarks or parallels for comparison.

This is a huge step amounting to an Olive tree from Chinese regulators, also another separate source of corroboration.

The big drop witnessed last week was caused by panic selling accompanies by media reports of 'unavertable Chinese stocks', indeed JP Morgan as evidenced below sold almost half their holding in tandem with their own bearish note.

My own view is this stand-off has been overhanging the market for sometime, perhaps as much as three years when first mooted, if it gets finally resolved it will demonstrate a huge commitment from the Chinese side to cooperate with the outside world, a big step imo.

A note on arbitrage, it may well be that HK market follows the US to some degree, possibly because its difficult to arb when both markets are not open at the same time, this can be seen with UK until 1.30/2.30 when NASDAQ opens.

Closed up nearly 7% in HK at 33.65, if I have my sums right that equates to UK 3.30

https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Equities/Equities-Quote?sym=13&sc_lang=en

Nice one Hosai, what an opportunity for attracting new talent and customers, very impressive !

This sounds very promising and might explains today's bounce.
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HONG KONG/BEIJING, March 23 (Reuters) - Chinese regulators have asked some of the country’s U.S.-listed firms, including Alibaba, Baidu and JD.com, to prepare for more audit disclosures, sources said, as Beijing steps up efforts to ensure domestic companies remain listed in New York.

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-regulation-usa-audit-idCNL2N2VQ015

Chinese internet stocks in Hong Kong continue to surge amid hopes of easing regulations

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/23/china-tech-stocks-continue-to-surge-amid-hopes-of-easing-regulations.html

This media invented notion that someone needs to counter Matt Moulding is bonkers ino, why would you want to rein in one of the key drivers and successes of the business,.

Crazy..

It amazes me how these journalists suddenly become experts on business they have little or no first hand knowledge of, if they are that good why they not heading up their own 2-3 billion pound enterprise.

Can you imagine putting one of these goons in charge of THG, just see how there share price would react then lol

Crest stock on loan is the best I have found for accuracy over the years, whilst it doesn't show the actual amount sold short it does corelate closely with market behaviour and intention.

After all why would you borrow a company's shares paying a lumpy daily interest charge if not to go short?

Reminder of monthly average stock on loan figures:

7.61% Feb-22
8.39% Jan-22

8.72% Dec-21
7.85% Nov-21
6.19% Oct-21
6.54% Sep-21
2.71% Aug-21
1.92% Jul-21

Solid appointment which will help restore confidence, main thing is another check box ticked on the way to a proper listing opening a path for UK funds.

As with the Chairman appointment, management have been working on this since late last year so hopefully sooner rather than later.

"Foxconn, a major Apple supplier, has “basically” resumed normal operations in Shenzhen, China after an uptick in Covid cases in the area caused it to pause production last week, according to Reuters."

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/21/apple-supplier-foxconn-resumes-normal-operations-after-covid-pause.html

There's some truly eye watering numbers quoted by Goldman Sachs in this article (free to read);

"There is a lot at stake for international investors. U.S. institutions now hold about $750 billion worth of Chinese shares of all sorts, Goldman Sachs analysts estimate, while many individuals also hold U.S.-listed Chinese shares or exchange-traded funds."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-chinese-shares-went-haywire-the-market-is-completely-unstable-11647682202

Without posting the whole reply (would need to ask permission) the below excerpt is perhaps the most relevant in our situation:

"if the issuer has retained a registered public accounting firm to issue an audit report in which the accounting firm has a branch or office that is located in a foreign jurisdiction and the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board has determined that it is unable to inspect"

My interpretation if this to mean the local PWC office where they have conducted the audit for the moment being out of bounds to US inspection committee.

This doesn't sound dissimilar to the audit process for FDA manufacturing plants, both have offices so hopefully easily overcome since there is already a precedent set.

Given the recent response by Chinese regulators I personally do not see this as a major risk especially as they have two years to sort this out, it is after all only a technicality.

Glad to see someone else is in the same page Winston, beginning to feel rejected lol.

He is probably having Breakfast at Tiffany's...

Okay, using Sterling as the base and rounded up to nearest 10k;

NASDAQ trades appx 400k GBP daily v HK at 500k GBP daily

I guess to be fair, it should take into account the FX difference between countries HK dollar being substantially lower than either US dollar or Pound.

If I get a sec will re-run the calculation based on equal currency values (if that makes sense)

I have put a question mark on the above title as most (including me) would automatically consider he NASDAQ most dominant, however daily volumes may suggest otherwise.

Yesterday's NASDAQ real time quote page has the following data for HCM :

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/hcm

Share Volume 582,522
Average Volume 486,047

Rounding this to 500,000 divide by 5 being the number of ADR's per London listing gives around 100k of daily volume.

HK on the other hand traded 5.29M

https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Securities-Prices/Equities/Equities-Quote?sym=13&sc_lang=en

Assuming I haven't overlooked something obvious, Is it really worth paying those high NASDAQ fees just to trade 100k of share each day, recent fund raise supported by many US institutions were happy with HK.

For the first time since monitoring these figures (perhaps Nov/Dec time) there is zero % weekly increase, in fact the Euro spot actually dropped possibly due to FX.

US - Weekly prices of Whey Protein Concentrate

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=sieroproteine

It 's an even bigger banana skin if you factor in their short position of 8,348,005 shares, so not only have they sold around 100m GBP of stock they failed to close their short too.

Received quite a lengthy reply from SEC yesterday, if there is anything of interest will post once digested.