Member Info for 1pencil

Quick tally of current holders, AR does have one or two different figures for instance Weiguo Su 0.79%

CK Hutchison Holdings Limited (1) 38.46%
The Capital Group Companies, Inc. (2) 9.18%
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (3) 6.83%
CA Fern Parent (4)(5) 4.72%
Prudential plc group(6) 3.85%
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (5)(7) 3.11%
Jean Eric Salata (8) 3.01%

Total 69.16%
Johnny Cheng 0.30%
Simon To 0.29%
Edith Shih 0.14%
Weiguo Su 0.04%
Dan Eldar 0.01%
Tony Mok 0.01%
Paul Carter 0.01%
Karen Ferrante 0.01%
Graeme Jack 0.00%
Christian Lawrence HOGG( 1.60%

Total 2.40%

It should hit THG's bottom line straight away as this was their rationale, buy in the spot market to take immediate advantage of prices when/if they drop, those on contracts may still be paying a higher price.

That's good news to see large holder increasing, wasn't aware the price dipped as low as HKD 12.2000?

Someone mentioned the Netherlands spot prices are used by THG, with a reference to recent analyst note, perhaps Jefferies, either way last three weeks has seen steady reductions;

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=siero_olanda

That should be $40m, Dow down another 1000 as I type.

Share price back to 2015 levels

This is the one for CKH or parent , its worth everyone writing as they do read and respond quite quickly

ir@ckh.com.hk

There's also'

"Hutchison Sinopharm: Our prescription drugs commercial services business, which in addition to providing
certain commercial services for our own products, provides services to third-party pharmaceutical companies
in China, grew sales by 24% (16% at CER) to $204m in 2021 (202 $165m)."

I think this financial year they have $40 coming in from a court case won by Sinopharm

Thanks for your reply NoS, yes the valuation has gone too far the other way but again volume is very light. I haven't seen any notifications of share holders selling so assuming the shorts are still impacting the price.

SHPL is interesting as its talked about during their results web cast as being a highly sought after asset, don't forget also HCM have $1b plus in cash sitting on the balance sheet.

I would like to see some support from directors as their remuneration packages are very generous imo, Christian last year received $3.7m including bonus for the capital raising earlier in 21.

Here is the email address for correspondence ir@hutch-med.com

I will reach out to other holders such as Jean Eric Salata and the parent company to canvas feedback.

Thinking about the small monthly reductions it's probably not feasible to close shorts too quickly without substantial price moves, after all you only see the short tracker info positions drop from say 0.51% to 0.48% which again is quite small.

THG is effectively a closed book so market makers will operate a first come, first served basis completing one order at a time.

6.76% Apr-22
6.94% Mar-22
7.61% Feb-22
8.39% Jan-22

8.72% Dec-21
7.85% Nov-21
6.19% Oct-21
6.54% Sep-21
2.71% Aug-21
1.92% Jul-21

Volume on NASDAQ 309,000 or in real money 61,800 shares, so still quite low volume in the scheme of things and super easy to push one way or the other.

Going to spend sometime at the weekend breaking out some of the assets, obvious one being SPL which is likely to be disposed of at some point soon, anyone have comparables valuation wise ?

The Crest data is interesting as it looks like the short side were not expecting the FDA decision either, its pretty illiquid so 2.5% is a fair slug to cancel/close.

On the FDA decision itself, the response to Credit Suisse attendee during call at 26.5m indicates they were not surprised.

Quite a drop for April

Apr-22 4.15%
Mar-22 6.72%
Feb-22 6.69%
Jan-22 7.42%

Dec-21 5.79%
Nov-21 3.37%

A lot of those options will now be out of the money, its worth emailing in if only as a reminder. I'll try writing to Barings and other holders to see if we can get some sort of coordinated response.

FirstMan, see earlier posts around short selling

After all of the years of shareholder support it would be nice to see directors step up to the plate and buy shares.

Jatw, yes, agreed there has been a shift in what is accepted and what's not, this is referenced many times during the web cast by various participant's.

Oddly enough, I see a small positive in that the only reason for rejection was based on data demographics and factory access, if had been due to under performance of the drug itself that would be entirely different.

Hopefully they can put repeat the same design study using US population , fresco2, global phase 11 trial is already mrct.

Its worth reading the New England write up (link in page below) by FDA’s Oncology Center of Excellence, Richard Pazdur as highlighted below, not only does it cover the whole China topic in some detail but raised during the Q and A session (43.42) to demonstrate FDA 's position and non- China bias.

"In hindsight, Tyvyt’s fate was spelled out for it when director of the FDA’s Oncology Center of Excellence, Richard Pazdur, M.D., penned an article in The New England Journal of Medicine in December questioning the use of clinical data generated solely or predominantly in China to seek U.S. approvals."

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/lilly-innovent-hit-fda-no-go-discounted-pd-1-immunotherapys-lung-cancer-bid-after-bleak

I think they simply ran out of time, FDA had to issue a decision notice and without proper factory inspections this was not possible.

It's easy to suggest its a China problem but this is not the case. FDA have been vocal on rejecting applications with insufficient supporting data, Eli Lilly is one of Americas oldest pharms but they still got rejected using similar studies to HCM. You could also argue that if the FDA had approved the drug they were showing favouritism towards China and anti-USA.

There may have been more room to wiggle had they been able to inspect the factories, without this plus the FDA's public statements on supporting data it as a no go.

Just relisting to audio webcast.

Here its spelled out in advance;

Feb 8, 2022

"An FDA rebuff looks almost certain for Eli Lilly and partner Innovent Biologics’ PD-1 inhibitor Tyvyt as an overwhelmingly negative internal FDA review ahead of an advisory committee meeting suggests the agency is unwilling to consider a drug solely based on clinical data from China."

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/eli-lilly-innovent-s-pd-1-troubled-waters-as-fda-review-oncology-chief-comments-portend

Looking at the reasoning behind the decision, this explanation in relation to Lilly and Innovent’s recent application looks far more plausible, indeed the rejection on single study data was anticipated;

Given this maybe HUTCHMED team were overly optimistic and unprepared for a similar outcome.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The FDA took issue with Lilly and Innovent’s use of a phase 3 clinical trial conducted solely in China as the core data backing sintilimab’s application. As Pazdur and his FDA colleagues have noted in two articles and an internal review document published in the run-up to the eventual rebuff, international multiregional clinical trials are the standard in registrational studies, per guidance from the International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH). China joined ICH as a full regulatory member in 2017.

“It’s in the long-term interests of all countries, including China, really to participate in these global trials,” Pazdur said, because they could solve the problem of trial diversity compared with single-country data.

The FDA oncology czar also warned against using data predominantly from one single country and then adding a small number of patients elsewhere to “give the veneer of an international trial.”

https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/its-long-term-interests-fda-oncology-chief-pazdur-defends-rejection-eli-lilly-innovents-pd-1

That should read 'MRCT as the company standard'

https://www.scmp.com/business/china-business/article/3176342/li-ka-shings-hutchmed-plunges-us530-million-stock-rout