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By Kate Holton
LONDON, May 30 (Reuters) - England risks losing control of
the coronavirus pandemic again and is at a "very dangerous
moment" as it starts to ease out of the COVID-19 lockdown,
senior scientific and medical advisers warned on Saturday.
One of the slowest countries to lock down, Britain is now
one of the worst-hit and is just starting to take tentative
steps to reopen parts of the economy, aided by a newly launched
track and trace system that is designed to suppress outbreaks.
From Monday, up to six people will be able to meet outside
their homes in England, some school classes will restart and
elite competitive sport can resume without fans.
But four members of Britain's Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies (SAGE) called the lifting premature, adding that the
track and trace system was untested and unlikely to cope with an
infection rate of around 8,000 new cases a day.
John Edmunds, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical
Medicine and a member of SAGE, said the easing was risky.
"Track and trace was only launched the day before yesterday,
so we can't be sure that that is working effectively yet and yet
we're going ahead and making these changes anyway," he told Sky
News. "I think that that is rather dangerous."
Living with the infection rate at its current level, he
said, would lead to many more cases and more deaths. Three other
members of SAGE and the London mayor, Sadiq Khan, also expressed
their concern.
In response, England's deputy chief medical officer Jonathan
Van-Tam agreed that the country was at a very dangerous moment
and said the easing would only work if the track and trace
system succeeded, and if people followed the rules.
Van-Tam said the more than 50 members of SAGE, which
includes scientists, medics and academics, often held differing
opinions but they all agreed that any easing must be
painstakingly slow and extremely cautious.
"This gets out of control quite quickly if you allow it to,
and it then takes many weeks to get the brakes on it," he said,
adding that the track and trace system would take time to bed
down and people must not "tear the pants out" of the new
guidance.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson's government, which has been
heavily criticised for its handling of the pandemic, said the
slight relaxation of the rules would ease the burden of lockdown
while keeping the virus' reproduction rate down.
Britain has recorded more than 270,000 cases of coronavirus
and says more than 38,000 have died after testing positive for
the illness. The Office of National Statistics and other sources
of data put the figure of fatalities from suspected and
confirmed cases at 48,000.
The government is now caught between the need to prevent a
second wave and the need to reopen the economy and keep
companies alive.
It says that while it may have made some mistakes it is
grappling with the biggest public health crisis since the 1918
influenza outbreak and that it has prevented the health service
from being overwhelmed.
SAGE member Peter Horby said the next three weeks would be
crucial. "Returning to a situation where we've lost control
again is far worse than a week or two (more) of social
measures," he said.
(Reporting by Kate Holton
Editing by Guy Faulconbridge, Helen Popper and Frances Kerry)