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TIMELINE-Germany could soon bury its 'black zero' budget rule

Tue, 20th Aug 2019 16:54

BERLIN, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Germany is facing growing callsat home and from abroad to ditch its self-imposed balancedbudget rule and take on new debt to inject more fiscal stimulusinto Europe's largest economy.

A senior government official told Reuters this month thatthe finance ministry is toying with the idea of issuing new debtin the form of "green bonds" which could help finance a costlyclimate protection package.

As the economy teeters on the brink of recession andborrowing costs hit record lows, Finance Minister Olaf Scholzhas also said that Germany's reduced debt level gives Berlin thefiscal muscle to counter a possible crisis "with full force",suggesting room for extra spending of up to 50 billion euros($55.4 billion).

Below is an overview of events that could soon decide aboutthe fate of Germany's balanced budget rule, also known as theSchwarze Null or black zero.

+++ SEPT 2 +++

Leaders of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives and theco-ruling, centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) meet behind closeddoors to prepare a comprehensive package of climate protectionmeasures that are likely to burden the federal budget massively.

+++ SEPT 10-13 +++

Lawmakers in the Bundestag lower house of parliament debatethe government's draft federal budget for 2020 and the mid-termfinancial planning until 2023. Scholz's opening speech will givemore hints about his commitment to the balanced budget rule.

+++ SEPT 13 +++

Merkel's conservatives and the SPD continue negotiations tofine-tune climate protection measures. The package is likely toinclude a pricing mechanism for carbon emissions and payouts forlow-income families to cushion the effects of the new measures.

+++ SEPT 20 +++

The so-called climate cabinet, including Merkel, Scholz,Environment Minister Svenja Schulze and Economy Minister PeterAltmaier, will seal the climate protection package and decide ifthe new measures can be financed without new debt.

+++ MID-OCT +++

Should the climate cabinet decide against burying the 'blackzero' budget, Germany's deteriorating growth outlook could stillput the final nail in its coffin in autumn.

The government is expected to update its growth forecasts inmid-October. In April, it slashed its 2019 estimate to 0.5%after an expansion of 1.5% in 2018. For 2020, Berlin predicted aconsumption-driven rebound with economic growth of 1.5 percent.

+++ OCT 30 +++

The finance ministry's panel of tax experts publishes itslatest estimates for tax revenues. Weaker growth means weakertax revenues which would limit the government's room for extraspending and a possible fiscal stimulus package.

+++ NOV 14 +++

The Federal Statistics Office releases gross domesticproduct figures for the third quarter. This shows if the Germaneconomy has managed to avoid a recession over the summer.

Germany's export-reliant economy shrank by 0.1% on thequarter from April to June, and another quarter of contractionwould be viewed as a technical recession.

A weak read-out would raise the pressure on the governmentto counter the crisis with a debt-financed stimulus package.

On the same day, budget lawmakers in the Bundestag lowerhouse of parliament put the final touches to the 2020 budget andthe mid-term financial planning until 2023, a marathon meetingthat often drags on until late into the night.

+++ NOV 26-29 +++

Lawmakers in the Bundestag lower house of parliament discussand vote on the 2020 budget. They have the final say on thedecision whether Germany should take on new debt.

+++ DEC 6-8 +++

SPD members will vote a new party leadership at a congressin Berlin. The question of ditching or sticking to the blackzero budget, an invention by Merkel's conservatives, is likelyto play an important role in the race.

Scholz is running on a dual ticket to become co-leader ofGermany's oldest party, and victory would bring him one stepcloser to his dream of becoming Germany's next chancellor.

($1 = 0.9029 euros)(Reporting by Michael Nienaber, editing by Ed Osmond)

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