Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters. You can share your thoughts with Joice Alves (joice.alves@thomsonreuters.com)
and Julien Ponthus (julien.ponthus@thomsonreuters.com) in London and Danilo Masoni and Stefano
Rebaudo (stefano.rebaudo@thomsonreuters.com) in Milan.
REAL ESTATE PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AFTER COVID? (0846 GMT)
The idea is pretty simple. More people working from home (WFH) during and after the pandemic
crisis would mean less demand for office space leading to a fall in real estate prices.
Barclays brings up the subject and forecasts that in the medium to longer term, "the shift
to WFH could lead to a 10-20% structural reduction in aggregate demand for office space, hurting
rental pricing and office valuations."
According to surveys quoted by the bank, nearly 75% of employees considered the experience
of working from home a positive, and almost 60% would do it after COVID, if given the choice.
"If our evidence is correct, it implies an average 2-3 days a week WFH will become the norm
for up to half the working population," a Barclays research note says.
Depending on assumptions about how office space is used, a move to part-time WFH could
reduce office demand up to 30%, it adds.
Arguing for a more moderate reduction in office space demand is the fact that in the U.S.
fewer than 4% of job postings currently allow for permanent full-time WFH.
(Stefano Rebaudo)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: STOXX 600 ESCAPES WALL STREET GRAVITY (0715 GMT)
It doesn't happen so often so it's worth noting that European stocks have managed to open in
positive territory despite Wall Street futures trading in the red.
There's nothing exuberant going on across European bourses, especially after yesterday, when
they had their worst session in three months, but the STOXX 600 opened up a decent 0.6%.
With the UK announcing new social restrictions, travel and leisure shares are holding up,
limiting their retreat at 0.3%.
UK focused midcaps are down 0.3%, which is also arguably better than feared.
It's however not much of a rebound for European banks that are just slightly down after
having tanked yesterday on the new dirty money scandal.
Insurers are the worst performers down 0.8%, with shares in Beazley down 12.6% after the
company said its COVID-19 claims have doubled. It didn't help the sector that the UK watchdog
proposed a ban on "loyalty penalties" at insurers.
(Julien Ponthus)
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ON THE RADAR: COVID-19 STOCKS (0640 GMT)
COVID-19 second waive of fears hit travel and leisure shares badly yesterday and the
pressure on those stocks is high this morning as Boris Johnson is set to announce new
restriction to curb the curve of new infections.
Pubs, bars and eateries across England will start closing at 10 p.m. and operate on table
service only, which will likely weigh on UK-listed chains of pubs and restaurants.
As a sign of the difficulties faced by the hospitality sector, Premier Inn owner Whitbread
said it may cut nearly 6,000 jobs.
But the gloom might nevertheless help stock which have done well during lockdown, such as
Britain's Kingfisher which saw profit rise on a DIY mini boom.
On the other hand, specialist insurer Beazley is bracing for claims linked to the novel
coronavirus pandemic to double to $340 million, with almost all the estimated increase arising
from events cancelled in the wake of a recent spike in infections.
Damage is felt in many industries with A.G. Barr, best known for Scottish fizzy drink
Irn-Bru, reporting a slump in half-year profit, as coronavirus-related lockdowns sapped demand
for its products.
Airlines are also on the front line of the second waive with TUI reducing winter capacity
and Lufthansa announcing further cuts to its fleet and workforce along with a 1.1 billion euro
impairment.
Still in the industry, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said his company would do its best to cut
costs without resorting to compulsory redundancies, but he could not guarantee it.
On the bright side, Hochtief shares are up close to 6% in early trade after it won a San
Diego airport contract.
Talking about coronavirus related moves, there's an interesting story on how
optimism on finding a vaccine has been a key driver in the performance of stock markets and
this will face a critical test in coming weeks, as investors await clinical data on whether they
actually work.
(Julien Ponthus, Joice Alves and Stefano Rebaudo)
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MORNING CALL: TENTATIVE REBOUND? (0534 GMT)
There's no clear trigger on the horizon for a meaningful rebound but European futures are
nevertheless trading in the black, up about 0.8%, despite their Wall Street peers retreating and
a bleak session in Asia.
With Boris Johnson ready to announce new restrictions to tackle the rise in COVID-19
infections, the newsflow isn't expected to be particularly upbeat this morning for travel and
leisure shares.
The dirty money banking scandal will also likely continue to weigh on a sector which is on
the front line of the economic damage unleashed by the global pandemic and whose index is
trading very near record lows.
On the bright side, oil prices are creeping up after their fall yesterday even if worries
about fuel demand persist and should keep a lid on any short-term burst of optimism.
All in all there's not much in store which might help European shares recover from their
worst sell-off in three month.
(Julien Ponthus)
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