LIVE MARKETS-Brexit: More upside yet for UK midcaps?

* European shares up and down in choppy station
* STOXX 600 flat, FTSE 100 up 0.5%
* Results in focus: Saab rallies, Reckitt down sharply
* M&A heats up in food delivery: Prosus makes rival bid for Just Eat
* Dow futures turn lower after McDonald's Q3 results

Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity markets brought to you by Reuters
stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him on Messenger to share your
thoughts on market moves: julien.ponthus.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net

BREXIT: MORE UPSIDE YET FOR UK MIDCAPS? (1246 GMT)
Yep! Sure! But that's obvioulsy ONLY if there isn't a major unforeseen setback on the road
to an orderly Brexit.
And granted, with just a few hours before another crunch vote in parliament, that's a very,
very, very big 'if'.
Anyhow, here are a few quotes making that point from analysts we just spoke too while
refreshing this story from Friday: Brexit nod from parliament to unleash 4% rally in pound,
send UK plc to record high

Here you go:
Evan Brown, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy at UBS AM:
"If a deal is passed, which is our base case, then we expect the news to be positive at the
margin for all UK equities in a global context. This is because many institutional investors
have avoided UK risk assets due to the political complexity and risks. If a no deal is
definitively ruled out, then at least part of the rationale for avoiding UK equities has
diminished."

Peter Lowman, CIO at Investment Quorum:
"If we were to continue along this path, not having major hiccups, then I could easily
see sterling up to about $1.35 and possibly a further rise in the midcaps (FTSE250)."

Helal Miah, Investment analyst at The Share Centre:
"The FTSE 250 and certain sectors will be extremely well off once the uncertainty is taken
away, the housebuilders will continue to appreciate, the UK-focused banks, Lloyds RBS Barclays
to a certain extent have all done well and I think that will probably continue."
(Julien Ponthus)
*****


HOW'S 2019? ACTUALLY, IT'S RARELY BEEN BETTER! (1003 GMT)
With the trade war and Brexit looking less threatening by the day, there doesn't seem to be
much in store to spoil 2019 returns for European equities - that is, if Q3 results don't prove
disastrous.
The STOXX 600 is up over 16% year-to-date and getting very close to year highs.
Things seem to be looking up and BlackRock, which upgraded its rating on European equities
to neutral earlier this year, is sticking to its view that the ECB's "dovish shift" should
provide an offset to the macro gloom.
As this BlackRock's chart shows, European stocks are not the only asset class to be nearing
their 2019 highs, same goes for the S&P 500 for instance.

(Julien Ponthus)
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WHO PERFORMS BETTER IN TIMES GLOBAL GROWTH SCARES? (0929 GMT)
The answer is simple: the U.S. and that's why DB prefers Wall Street over Europe, as it
expect the economy and earnings to stagnate even further.
"Despite the fact that the US is the most expensive market, we prefer it to other regions,"
they say, making a couple of interesting points.
1. The rest of the world is more cyclical: the S&P 500 is only 40% exposed to manufacturing
compared to 52% and 62% in Japan and Europe
2. In prior episodes of weakened global growth, the US has outperformed relative to the rest
of the
world


(Danilo Masoni)
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OPENING SNAPSHOT: OVERALL FLAT BUT PLENTY OF Q3 SWINGS (0733 GMT)
The STOXX 600 opened just slightly positive but most European indexes are now tilted to the
downside.
It seems that this is likely to be a choppy session with Q3 results triggering sharp
individual moves.
The biggest winner is clearly Swedish defence firm Saab which had results well
ahead of market forecasts and is up close to 6%.
On the other end of the spectrum, Reckitt Benckiser is down 5% after hitting its
lowest since May 2018. The British household goods maker has cut its full-year sales forecast
for the second time this year.
See top movers on the STOXX 600 here:

(Julien Ponthus)
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ON THE RADAR: Q3 MATTERS (0659 GMT)
European bourses are now seen opening sideways with a lot of corporate news to digest.
What matters more and could shift the balance at the open is the Q3 season accelerating
towards full speed with investors on the lookout for signs that Europe has started to bottom up,
notably with Netherlands-based staffing company Randstad reporting a slightly
better-than-expected drop of 2% in third-quarter core profit, as previously slowing European
markets stabilized.
With that in mind, there’s a lot of positive news to be found, like Saab swinging
back to profit and particularly in the Swiss corporate universe.
Sunrise Communications Group is expected to rise after it bowed to investor
pressure and scrapped a rights issue needed to complete the acquisition of Liberty Global's UPC
business.
Shares in both banking group UBS and drugmaker Novartis are seen rising at
the open after publishing their Q3 results.
In the tech sector sensor specialist AMS Q3 sales were above its own guidance while
Logitech reported a 4.5% increase in operating income.
Elsewhere in tech, German business software firm Software AG saw a 5% increase in
third-quarter revenue.
Less rosy in Brexit land with British household goods maker Reckitt Benckiser cutting
full-year sales forecast for the second time this year, Travis Perkins, the country’s
largest distributor of building materials, halting plans to sell its plumbing and heating
division, and Premier-Inn owner Whitbread reporting lower profits.
In other disappointing news, France’s Imerys and Norway’s Aker BP cut
their outlook.
(Julien Ponthus)
*****

EUROPE ON THE RISE AMID TRADE WAR OPTIMISM (0626 GMT)
European bourses are seen opening on the rise this morning, following gains on Wall Street
and in Asia as a wind of optimism towards the U.S./China trade lifts sentiment.
As a sign that investors are also confident a hard disorderly Brexit will most likely be
avoided, the pound is up and in touching distance of the $1.30 benchmark.
Spreadbetters at IG expect London's FTSE to open 5 points higher at 7,168 points,
Frankfurt's DAX up 41 points at 12,789 points and Paris' CAC to rise 12 points 5,660 points.
In terms of corporate news, the Q3 earnings season is slowly getting to full speed and today
seems to have brought a few disappointing items such as French speciality minerals company
Imerys cutting its outlook for 2019 or Norway's Aker BP reducing its full-year oil output
target.
(Julien Ponthus)
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(Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Joice Alves, Josephine Mason, Julien Ponthus and Thyagaraju
Adinarayan)