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INSIGHT-Scotland's feuding nationalists seek election majority to keep independence dream alive

Mon, 26th Apr 2021 07:00

* In Scotland's capital, nationalists face key battle

* Polling indicates slim majority now back independence

* Pandemic response and Brexit boost support for breaking
away

* Infighting undermines drive for independence

By Andrew MacAskill and Andrew R.C. Marshall

EDINBURGH, April 26 (Reuters) - For candidate Angus
Robertson, helping his Scottish National Party win a majority in
May 6 elections would be a dream come true. Beyond that lies a
far bigger prize - another referendum and the prospect of
breaking from the United Kingdom.

He only needs to look up for inspiration in his push for
independence that would end the 314-year union between Scotland
and England and profoundly change the course of British history.

Around the lofty room that serves as his campaign
headquarters in Edinburgh, a rallying cry to Scottish noblemen
700 years ago is written in cursive script. It is "not for
glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting," it reads,
"but for freedom."

The prospect of independence is again in play.

Opinion polls point to a persistent, though narrowing
majority in favour of leaving the UK, with Brexit in 2016 -
which Scotland opposed - forefront in many voters' minds.

The SNP is also close to controlling the devolved parliament
outright, and the last time that happened in 2011, Britain's
then-Prime Minister David Cameron bowed to pressure and allowed
a referendum in 2014 that ultimately rejected going it alone.

Robertson hopes that a majority would force Boris Johnson to
do the same, and few races will be watched more closely than his
own to gauge the SNP's chances and, with them, the possibility
of another referendum.

The Scottish Conservatives hold the seat by just 610 votes,
and the SNP needs four more seats to win a majority of 65 in the
129-seat parliament and claim the moral and political right to
vote on independence.

"Edinburgh Central is a hugely important seat for the SNP to
secure a majority," said Robertson of his symbolic constituency
at the heart of Scotland's capital.

He grew up in the area that includes the Scottish
parliament, an imposing castle perched on an extinct volcano and
the richest parts of a city that voted emphatically against
independence in 2014.

The 51-year-old, who talks about independence with the quiet
intensity of someone who thinks it's a question of when, not if,
recalled a time when nationalists like himself weren't even
elected as local councillors.

"The fact that the SNP is in the running to win this seat is
hugely symbolic of how strong the pro-independence movement has
become."

UPHILL BATTLE

Were independence to happen, the United Kingdom - already
grappling with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and
Brexit - would lose about a third of its landmass, a tenth of
its population and a core ingredient of its identity.

Opinion polls suggest that, for the first time, a small,
sustained majority of voters in Scotland favour it.

Anger over Brexit and approval of the Scottish government's
handling of the coronavirus pandemic have bolstered support for
independence, and demands for a second vote. That backing
reached a record 58% of Scots at the end of last year.

But underlining the challenge the SNP faces, support for
independence has since dropped to 51%, excluding undecided
voters, following a bitter feud between SNP leader and
Scotland's first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and her predecessor,
Alex Salmond.

Sturgeon has faced calls to resign for her treatment of her
former mentor during an investigation of sexual harassment
allegations against him.

Salmond was acquitted by a court last year of 12 allegations
of sexual assault and is suing the government over its handling
of the complaints.

The row has cast an unflattering light on the nationalist
movement, tainted by in-fighting, self-interest, and conspiracy.

Salmond started his own pro-independence party in March.
Although the party, Alba, is expected at most to pick up a
handful of seats, this could split the nationalist vote and deny
the SNP its crucial outright majority.

While the SNP is one of Europe's most successful political
parties and is on course to win a fourth term in office, its
membership is the most divided it has been in decades, according
to James Mitchell, a professor of politics at Edinburgh
University, who has written books on the nationalist movement.

He said among activists there is growing frustration over
Sturgeon's gradualist strategy for winning a new referendum and
her centrist economic policies.

A party that wins elections "tends to be happy", he said.

"But the SNP has a bigger goal and that is independence. It
hasn't made much progress on that and this is feeding a sense of
betrayal. That is a strong term, but that is how some people
feel."

THE FIGHT FOR EDINBURGH

In a close-fought constituency like Edinburgh Central, said
Mitchell, disaffection with the SNP could divert votes to other
pro-independence candidates and rob the SNP of a precious seat.

Repeatedly besieged by English soldiers during the Middle
Ages, Edinburgh has proved more resistant to independence than
other parts of Scotland.

It has the highest average earnings of any city in the
United Kingdom after London. Many residents work in finance and
higher education, which could be threatened by independence.

About 60,000 people live in Edinburgh Central.

A railway line bisects its richer areas, with their leafy
Georgian squares and shops selling artisanal coffee or pheasant,
from working-class areas where Polish, African and South Asian
supermarkets serve a diverse community.

Robertson was born in England to a Scottish father and
German mother, and started out as a journalist with Austria's
public broadcaster. He is a prominent ally of Sturgeon and a
former deputy leader of the SNP.

When Reuters visited, Robertson's mail bag contained a crude
reminder that Edinburgh Central is no walkover. He opened an
envelope and unfolded a note scrawled with expletives. "As I
thought," he said.

Robertson's Conservative opponent, a relative unknown called
Scott Douglas, who works in public relations for a local
college, was born in England to Scottish parents.

Douglas believes independence is a distraction from reviving
Scotland's post-pandemic economy.

"Most people I speak to don't see the difference between
being British and Scottish," he told Reuters. "You can be both."

Under pressure to show progress is being made towards the
goal of independence, the nationalists have pledged to hold a
new referendum by the end of 2023 if they win a majority in the
election. As the law stands, to hold another referendum legally,
Scotland needs the permission of the British parliament.

Johnson has repeatedly said he would refuse another
independence vote and the next should not be held until the
2050s because the issue was settled in 2014.

This could set the stage for a showdown: the nationalists
say they will pass the legislation anyway, daring the British
government to challenge the decision in the courts.

But Robertson says the UK government will eventually back
down if the SNP wins a majority.

"The danger to Boris Johnson and the UK government, by
blocking the legitimate wishes of people in Scotland, is that
what has been an independence movement develops into a democracy
movement," Robertson said. "This is understood by ministers in
London."

On Edinburgh's streets below the castle there is suspicion
of both the SNP and Johnson's Conservatives.

Johnson is particularly disliked in Scotland, where his
English eccentricity is seen by some as arrogance. He is
unlikely to campaign for the Conservatives, in apparent
recognition that his presence could do more harm than good.

"Boris doesn't care about a guy like me," said Stephen
McKinlay, relaxing on a bench after a day working on a building
site.

McKinlay said he voted against independence in the 2014
referendum, but is now leaning the opposite way.

"There are big risks," he said, "but maybe now we will be
better off on our own."
(Reporting by Andrew MacAskill and Andrew R.C. Marshall;
editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Mike Collett-White)

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