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GLOBAL MARKETS-Yen, gold gain on trade war angst; Argentine peso sinks

Mon, 12th Aug 2019 18:40

(Adds close of European markets)

* U.S.-Sino trade deal unlikely before 2020 U.S. election

* Yen rises to 1 1/2 year high vs dollar

* Gold remains above $1,500 an ounce

* U.S., European equity markets falter, China's gains

* Argentine peso plunges after primary elections

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, Aug 12 (Reuters) - Investors piled into gold,safe-haven yen and bonds on Monday over nagging concerns about aprolonged U.S.-China trade war and global growth, whileArgentina's peso plunged 22% after voters handed its presidentan election mauling.

The yen rose to its highest in more than a year and a halfversus the dollar on the prospect the Japanese currency couldgain more in the case of a drawn-out U.S.-Sino trade conflict.

Concerns that a trade deal would not be reached before the2020 U.S. presidential election grew after Goldman Sachs onSunday became the latest to cut its U.S. growth outlook and warna trade stand-off would fester past the election.

U.S. stocks fell, following a decline in Europe, to push agauge of global equity performance lower. Stocks in Chinarallied more than 1% after the yuan avoided furtherdrama after Chinese authorities allowed the yuan toslip below the seven-per-dollar level last week.

Stocks in the near term lack a catalyst either from companyearnings, the Federal Reserve or a trade deal, said Rahul Shah,chief executive of Ideal Asset Management in New York.

"The promise of a trade deal coming this year, I thinkthat's becoming less and less likely," Shah said. "That does setup the market possibly for a correction at this point," he said.

Stocks could dip between 5% to 10% but prompt long-terminvestors to enter the market as valuations fall, he said. Halfof Shah's portfolio is corporate debt with remainder tech stocksand shares with solid dividends, he said.

MSCI's gauge of stock performance in 47 countriesfell 0.6% while Wall Street also fell.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 265.06 points,or 1.01%, to 26,022.38. The S&P 500 lost 23.37 points, or0.80%, to 2,895.28 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped52.26 points, or 0.66%, to 7,906.88.

European shares also fell, with the pan-regionalFTSEurofirst 300 of leading European shares closingdown 0.31%, while Germany's export-heavy DAX off 0.12%.

Germany's Ifo survey echoed the growth concerns with itsmeasures for current conditions and economic expectations bothhaving worsened in the third quarter.

Gold edged up, holding above the psychological $1,500 level.Spot gold added 0.6% to $1,505.83 an ounce.

The yen rose to its highest against the dollar sinceMarch 2018 - barring a flash crash in January - gaining 0.32%versus the greenback at 105.35 per dollar.

The euro rose 0.12% to $1.1211, while the dollarindex fell 0.05%.

"The longer the trade war drags on, the more likely it wouldweigh (on) the global outlook and crimp the world economy, anegative for market morale," said Joe Manimbo, senior marketanalyst at Western Union Business Solutions.

U.S. Treasury yields dropped across the board as tradeworries and political tensions around the world in places suchas Hong Kong and Argentina supported safe-haven assets.

U.S. long-term yields have fallen in six of the past ninesessions, reflecting investors' diminished risk appetite. Bondyields in Europe also were lower on the day.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes rose 26/32in price to push their yield lower at 1.6454%.

The Argentine peso collapsed, falling to 55.2545 tothe dollar, after voters snubbed market-friendly PresidentMauricio Macri by giving the opposition a greater-than-expectedvictory in Sunday's primary election.

The Merval stock index fell 30% and declines ofbetween 18-20 cents in Argentina's benchmark 10-year bonds leftthem trading at around 60 cents on the dollar or even lower.

The victory by Alberto Fernandez - whose running mate isformer Argentine President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner -"paves the way for the return to left-wing populism that manyinvestors fear," consultancy Capital Economics told clients.

Oil prices rose despite worries about a global economicslowdown and the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, which has reduceddemand for commodities such as crude.

International benchmark Brent crude futures rose 8cents to $58.61 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI)futures gained 14 cents to $54.64 a barrel.

(Reporting by Herbert Lash with additional reporting by KateDuguid in New YorkEditing by Nick Zieminski and Cynthia Osterman)

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