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FOREX-Euro holds 8-week highs against the dollar as dovish Fed weighs

Mon, 26th Apr 2021 12:10

* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* German Ifo data short of expectations

* German government raises growth forecast (source)

* Focus on Fed meeting ending Wednesday

* Bitcoin reclaims $50,000 bar

* Turkish lira close to all-time low

By Julien Ponthus

LONDON, April 26 (Reuters) - The euro held at an eight-week
high against the dollar on Monday despite a disappointing
sentiment survey in Germany as expectations the U.S. Federal
Reserve will maintain its dovish stance at a policy meeting
weighed on the greenback.

German business morale improved by less than expected in
April as a third wave of COVID-19 infections and problems with
supply of components in the industrial sector seemed to slow the
recovery in Europe's largest economy.

Analysts however kept focusing on the general direction of
travel of the economy, seen firmly on its way out of the
COVID-19 crisis.

"Notwithstanding the slight disappointment in today’s
figures, the April Ifo results combine with other
closely-watched surveys for the eurozone economy...in signalling
momentum improvement at the start of Q2," commented economist
Ricardo Amaro at Oxford Economics.

On Friday, the common currency posted its biggest daily
gains since early February after positive data on European
services and manufacturing activity lifted sentiment.

Adding to the optimism, a source told Reuters that the
German government has raised its growth forecast for this year
to 3.5%, compared with the 3% growth it was expecting back in
January.

The euro had given up the morning's gains by around
midday on the continent, to stand 0.01% lower at $1.2095,
clinging to its highest levels since the beginning of March.

The dollar index was down 0.11% at 90.80, its lowest
level since March 3.

The Fed's next meeting ends on Wednesday, and while no major
policy changes are expected, investors will pay close attention
to comments from Chairman Jerome Powell.

Powell is likely to face questions over whether an improving
labour market and rising coronavirus vaccinations warrant a
withdrawal of monetary easing, but most analysts expect him to
say such talk is premature, which would put downward pressure on
Treasury yields and the dollar.

"The Fed has managed to convince the market that it is in no
position to begin contemplating tapering, never mind raising
rates, for – in their own words – 'some time'," John Velis, a
strategist at BNY Mellon wrote to clients.

The dollar stood at 107.77 yen, close to its
lowest since March 4.

The British pound was 0.1% higher at $1.3894,
adding to a 0.3% gain in the previous session.

In emerging markets, the Turkish lira weakened
to as much as 8.48 versus the dollar, close to its record low of
8.58 reached in early November.

The currency, among the worst performers in emerging markets
this year due to worsening relations with the United States and
worries about a dovish central bank governor, recouped some
losses during the morning and was last quoted at 8.3150.

The onshore yuan edged up to 6.4841 per dollar,
just shy of a six-week high.

Elsewhere, the Australian and New Zealand dollars
rose toward one-month highs.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin reclaimed
the $50,000 mark, jumping over 8% and on course to snap five
straight days of losses exacerbated by U.S. President Joe
Biden's plan to raise capital gains taxes for wealthy investors.

(Reporting by Julien Ponthus; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

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