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FOREX-Dollar starts week on back foot ahead of data, earnings

Mon, 13th Jul 2020 05:03

* Dollar index edges down on cautious optimism on global
economy

* Raft of U.S., China data, corporate earnings key focus of
week

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Hideyuki Sano

TOKYO, July 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged down in
Asian trade on Monday as investors looked to looming economic
data from around the world and U.S. corporate earnings to gauge
whether the markets' guarded optimism on the economic outlook is
justified.

The greenback had ended its third week of losses on Friday
as investors bought into risk-sensitive currencies on bets that
the worst of the pandemic's sweeping impact was over.

The dollar index against a basket of major currencies
slipped 0.2% in early Monday trade to 96.452.

U.S. coronavirus cases surged over the weekend, as Florida
reported an increase of more than 15,000 new cases in 24 hours,
a record for any state, surpassing a peak hit in New York in
April.

"Rising coronavirus cases are not positive but at the
moment, markets seem to think that there is still some distance
to a situation where an overflow of the medical system will
force them to put restrictions on the economy," said Yukio
Ishizuki, senior currency strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Hopes for development of drugs and vaccines for the disease
are also supporting risk sentiment as do economic indicators
that have so far shown a recovery from lockdowns.

"We've seen a rapid rebound after a rapid decline in various
economic data. But looking ahead, the improvement could slow or
we could even seen a deterioration given the second round of
infections," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief currency strategist
at Mizuho Securities.

A weekly gauge of consumer confidence in Australia has
dropped after a spike in infections in Melbourne and that could
be echoed in the United States, where the magnitude of the
outbreak is much larger, he noted.

U.S. consumer inflation figures for June are due on Tuesday
while retail sales, a key gauge of consumption, are released on
Thursday.

The U.S. corporate earning season will start this week,
providing another window to assess the scale of the damage as
well as the recovery, from the pandemic.

"I expect stock markets to remain firm and the dollar to
slightly weaken, but everybody is getting nervous about a
possible correction," said Kazushige Kaida, head of FX Sales at
State Street Bank and Trust's Tokyo Branch.

The euro rose 0.25% to $1.1329, maintaining its slow
uptrend since late last month.

Looming large for the common currency was a planned EU
summit on July 17-18, where leaders need to bridge gaps on
long-term budget and economic stimulus plans.

European Council President Charles Michel proposed a smaller
joint EU budget for 2021-27 than previously envisaged to placate
thrifty countries in the north.

The British pound also gained 0.3% to $1.2656,
edging near its three-week high of $1.2668 touched last week.

The Australian dollar added 0.3% to $0.6969.

The dollar also lost small ground against the safe-haven
yen, to 106.83 yen, staying near two-week lows of 106.635
set on Friday.

Investors also looked to China, where economic recovery is
gaining momentum as the outbreak has largely been contained.

China will release its June trade data on Tuesday and a
batch of other data, including second quarter GDP, on Thursday.

The Chinese yuan gained 0.15% to 6.9987 per dollar in
early trade.
(Reporting by Hideyuki Sano
Editing by Shri Navaratnam & Simon Cameron-Moore)

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