LONDON, March 7 - Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of European equity marketsbrought to you by Reuters stocks reporters and anchored today by Julien Ponthus. Reach him onMessenger to share your thoughts on market moves: julien.ponthus.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net "NO WINNERS" FROM BREXIT (1324 GMT) Unsurprisingly, Donald Tusk's remarks aren't particularly optimistic about the impact ofBrexit on trade. Brexit will make trade "more complicated and costly" for everyone, he saidearlier, with Luxembourg prime minister Xavier Bettel echoing: "there will be no winners afterBrexit". Interestingly Tusk commented specifically on air travel, saying he is determined to avoiddisruption of flights between the
UK and EU, one of the most feared potential consequences ofBrexit. In response to Trump's tariff talk, Tusk also said trade wars are bad and "easy to lose",and announced EU leaders would devote a session to the
U.S. trade threat at their next summit onMarch 22-23.
U.S. stock futures are down 0.6 to 1 percent as investors across the pond price in Cohn'sresignation and renewed trade fears. (Helen Reid) ***** WHEN INDUSTRIAL GROWTH GETS "QUITE EXCITING" (1301 GMT) Philip Dicken, head of European equities at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, is hopingthis will feed through into capex. "Capacity utilization has gone up a lot, and therefore companies are going to have to investin their capital stock, and one man's capex is another man's revenues," says Dicken. "We've been quite stock-specific but we've been taking advantage of industrial growth andGDP growth," Dicken adds. He says they have quite a big position in Kingspan, an Irish building materials firmwhich makes insulation products, and which he expects will benefit from European growth pickingup. They also have a sizeable position in French business services group Elis. (Kit Rees) ***** ADP SALE REPORT PUTS
FRANCE'S 70 BLN PORTFOLIO UNDER SPOTLIGHT (1241 GMT) Shares in French airport operator ADP are showing no sign of fatigue this morningand are now up 5.1 percent at the top of
France's index of top 120 blue-chips. That comes after a local press report said the government is looking to privatise ADP andsell all of its 50.6 percent stake, which is worth about
8 billion euros. Investment bankers and investors alike are expecting French President Macron to launch a newwave of privatisations to finance an innovation fund and ADP seems a plausible way to start. The government directly holds a portfolio of listed companies worth about
70 billion euros(February 23 market value). Many of these companies are regularly at the centre of M&A speculation like Orange, Renault, Engie or recently Thales with the acquisitionof Gemalto. Here's a link to access the French Finance Ministry's portfolio of listed companies: http://bit.ly/2G6pAOJ and a broader one with the 81 firms it has a stake in: http://bit.ly/2D77SXS . Firms in the latter include the national lottery or local airports that could also be fullyor partially privatised. Here's a screenshot of the portfolio of listed companies that you can access from the linkabove: (Julien Ponthus) ***** WILL INVESTORS SWAP
U.S. BANKS FOR EUROPEANS? (1221 GMT) After meetings with 100 investors in
Britain,
Europe and
the United States, JPMorganconfirms its overweight
U.S. over European banks and says that despite all the positive economicgreen shoots in
Europe, stock picking is not that easy. "For European Banks to re-rate, we would need to see positive operational gearing drivingearnings upgrades. In our discussion with global investors, especially the US marginal investorwho spends a majority of their time on the US rather than
Europe going through the issues, theconclusion still remains that US banks will outperform
Europe," analysts at the US bank say. "We agree with that view for now," they add. So where will investors put money in European banks? "A slim picking," they note, although there are still some interesting takeaways: * Less and less interest in the geographically diversified business model such as banks likeBNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Santander and BBVA * More and more a view in the
U.S. that the domestic Spanish banks re-rating thematic hascome to a pause until next year when Euribor may start to move upwards * Ongoing momentum and interest in the Italian banks, especially UniCredit and Intesa Sanpaolo US banks have recovered almost all of the losses they made since the globalfinancial crisis in 2007 as the Federal Reserve has started to raise interest rates and DonaldTrump is cutting down regulation. European banks instead have been left behind, as yousee in the chart. (Danilo Masoni) ***** INCOMING: BREXIT HEADLINES! (1134 GMT) The EU's Tusk is to present the bloc's draft guidelines for a future relationship with
Britain after Brexit at 1215 GMT but the key point has already leaked out: the bloc plans tooffer British-based financial services companies only limited access to the Single Market,according to a draft document quoted by Bloomberg.
Britain's Hammond will get a chance to answer at 1430 GMT when he announces his Brexit planfor banks and how he intends to protect the industry from a Brexit hit. In the meantime, the British banking sector is down 0.1 percent. Notice thatthe pound, which rarely trades in the same direction than the FTSE, is losing close to 0.3percent against the euro. The British blue chip index is down 0.1 percent. Here are the views of Andreas Koening, head of global FX at Amundi, on sterling: "I am short on sterling. They were too positive before Brexit negotiations a couple of weeksago. There are more frictions in the discussions. I think significant detereoration in Brexitnegotiations is not priced in. They still expect some kind of deal which is the most logicaloutcome. But if something negative happens, then we go another 3-5 percent down from currentlevels." (Julien Ponthus and Saikat Chatterjee) ***** #EUROBOOM LOSING SOME OF ITS SHINE (1113 GMT) Figures from Eurostat confirm Eurozone GDP expanded by 0.6 percent in Q4 with both domesticdemand and trade boosting growth, but some signs of weakness emerged. Consumption growth was the weakest in nearly four years, at 0.2 percent, Oxford Economicslead economist Nicola Nobile writes. "These latest numbers do take some of the gloss off the #Euroboom," Nobile says, adding thepick-up in inflation could be the reason why consumers have been more reluctant. Exports growth has remained strong, however, up by around 2 percent over the quarter. "This confirms our view that Eurozone companies have taken stock of the acceleration inworld trade and dynamic domestic demand that have increased capacity pressures in industry, byramping up investment," he says. (Helen Reid) *****
EUROPE Q4 PROFIT GROWTH STILL SEEN BEATING
U.S. (1022 GMT) The reporting season in
Europe is past its mid point and as numbers continue to roll inearnings expectations confirm their solid momentum and still point to stronger fourth quartergrowth in
Europe than in
the United States. Combined fourth-quarter profits of companies in the pan-European STOXX 600benchmark index are seen rising 19.4 percent, against the 15.1 percent rise expected for the S&P500, according to Thomson Reuters analyst David Aurelio. Revenues in
Europe are seen rising 2.5 percent, against 8.2 percent for the
U.S., indicatingthat cost cutting is a key driver for the outperformance. At the country level,
Austria (+117.7 percent) and
Italy (+51.5 percent) are leading theadvance, while the
UK (+15.4 percent) is below the rate expected for the STOXX. Here's your Q4 forecast chart: And here are forecasts for 2018 that show growth slowing to 1.8 percent in the first quarterand climbing back to a peak of 17 percent in the third quarter: (Danilo Masoni) ***** RETURN OF TRADE WAR: HOW WOULD ESCALATING TARIFFS IMPACT
EUROPE? (1018 GMT) The latest episode in a developing trade spat between the
U.S. and the rest of the world hasput a dampener on trading today. "Markets viewed Cohn as a voice of reason on trade policy," says UBS Chief Economist PaulDonovan. "The Trump Twitter feed has denied "chaos" in the administration, but senior staffturnover has been unusually high. This undermines the policy continuity that markets crave." Tariffs on steel alone would pose no great risk to the Eurozone, UBS analysts argue: thebiggest exporters of steel to the
U.S. are
Canada,
Brazil,
South Korea,
Mexico and
Russia. But should a fully-blown trade war develop and impact other areas, this would of course benegative. To assess the potential impact, UBS has collated the biggest sectors exporting to the
U.S. - and therefore most at risk from protectionism (see table below). "Apart from automobiles, pharmaceuticals and machinery equipment rank highly and would thusbe hit hard by
U.S. import tariffs," analysts write. (Helen Reid) ***** AD AGENCIES WPP, PUBLICIS HIT BY P&G SPENDING CUT (0906 GMT) It's the latest bit of bad news for advertising giants WPP and Publicis,whose shares are among the notable fallers today. Procter & Gamble is reported to be cutting its spending on ad agencies by
$1.25 billion overthe next three years, aiming, according to the Telegraph, to "take back control" (where have weheard that before?) from the big agencies and invest instead in internal analytics. Digital disruption of the advertising model has put ad agencies under increasing pressure inrecent years. Below you can see that 2017 was the first year in many that WPP's shares didn'tfollow the market higher, as bigger corporate budgets stopped automatically translating intomore ad agency spending. (Helen Reid) ***** OPENING SNAPSHOT: TRADE WOES WEIGH, ROLLS ROYCE SHINES (0821 GMT) Shares across
Europe are falling and nearly all sectors are in the red this morning afterGary Cohn's resignation reignited concerns over trade wars. But on the corporate front there are some outstanding performers, particularly among
UKfirms, which could be helping the FTSE 100 outperform European peers. Rolls Royce shares are up 10.6 percent after the engine maker reported strong resultswith profit beating expectations. Smurfit Kappa is also a top gainer, up another 3.7 percent after having shot up 20percent on Tuesday. Its suitor International Paper confirmed it had proposed
8 billioneuros for the company. Meanwhile ad agencies' shares are falling, with traders pointing to an FT report thatProcter & Gamble is to cut ad agency spending by
$1.25 billion over the next three years. Publicis and WPP are both suffering, down 2.4 percent and 1.7 percent. (Helen Reid) ***** COMPANY NEWS MORNING HEADLINE ROUND-UP: They’re back. Trade war fears made a comeback last night when Donald Trump made freshcomments on tariffs and his economic adviser Gary Cohn, seen as a bulwark against protectionistforces within the administration, resigned. European futures are lower, in line with Asian indexes and
U.S. futures which are also innegative territory. Wall Street closed too early to digest the news. So it’s mainly about politics today but there’s still some corporate news to animate thesession, including International Paper's confirmation of its proposed takeover of Smurfit Kappa:Telecom Italia promises higher investor returns under 3-yr digital pushRolls-Royce 2017 profit beats, cautious on this yearSmurfit Kappa rejects International Paper's
$10 bln bidSAP execs see margin gains beyond 2020 as cloud costs subsideDeutsche Post DHL eyes further profit increase in 2018RTL sees revenues growing 2.5-5 pct in 2018Novartis,
U.S. partner plan remote trials to boost participation
UK insurer esure's full-year pretax profit rises 35.6 pct
Italy's Carige says can't meet new investor's board seat requestRBS reaches
$500 mln settlement with
New York over mortgage securitiesYNAP in line with 5-year plan, core profit margins to rise in 2018 -CEO(Julien Ponthus and Tom Pfeiffer) **** EUROPEAN FUTURES OPEN LOWER AS TRADE WAR FEARS SPREAD (0710 GMT) European futures have opened lower as fears that new
U.S. tariffs could ignite a trade warspread to
Europe: (Julien Ponthus) ***** MORNING CALL:
EUROPE SEEN OPENING LOWER AS TRADE FEARS RETURN (0617 GMT) Fears of an imminent trade war had eased during the previous session, allowing shares torecover but the resignation of White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, seen as a bulwark againstprotectionist forces within the Trump administration, means we are back where we were. Financial spreadbetters expect
London's FTSE to open 18 points lower,
Frankfurt's DAX down36 points and the Paris CAC down 16 points at the open. (Julien Ponthus) **** (Reporting by Danilo Masoni, Helen Reid, Kit Rees and Julien Ponthus)
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