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LONDON MIDDAY BRIEFING: Ryanair, Aer Lingus And IAG Dance Steps Up

Tue, 26th May 2015 11:21

LONDON (Alliance News) - Airline stocks were grabbing attention in London, after Irish discount carrier Ryanair Holdings reported surging profit and the Financial Times said the Irish government may approve the EUR1.3 billion sale of Aer Lingus Group to British Airways-owner International Consolidated Airlines Group as early as Tuesday.

At midday, Ryanair shares were up 6.5%, while shares fellow budget airline easyJet were up 0.7%. IAG shares were up 0.8% and Aer Lingus shares up 2.2%. The airline stocks also were benefiting Tuesday from a decline in world oil prices Tuesday.

Ryanair Holdings said its net profit for the financial year to the end of March beat its upgraded guidance on the back of stronger revenue and higher customer numbers and as its load factor improved.

The airline said its profit after tax for the year to March 31 was EUR867 million, up 66% from the EUR523 million reported a year earlier and ahead of the upgraded guidance it issued in February for net profit of EUR840 million to EUR850 million. That guidance upgrade was the third the group had made since its half-year results were published in November, as it was boosted by falling fuel prices which eventually resulted in its net margin improving to 15% from 10% a year earlier.

Ryanair reiterated its continuing push for the UK Competition and Markets Authority to reverse its ruling forcing Ryanair to sell down its stake in Irish flag carrier Aer Lingus to 5% from 29.8%. In April, the CMA said there had been no material change in circumstances or any special reason to reverse the ruling.

Ryanair initially made the request for the ruling to be reversed in February, arguing that the bid made for Aer Lingus by IAG, and the period of time since the decision was initially made in August 2013, constituted a material change in circumstances and that the competition regulator no longer had the power to impose a divestment remedy on Ryanair.

On Tuesday, Ryanair said it was "amazed" by the CMA's decision not to reverse the ruling and claimed that should it fail to do so in the future, the CMA would be "totally discredited".

On the Aer Lingus deal, Ryanair said its approach to the bid by IAG remains unchanged, saying it would consider any offer from IAG on its merits.

Aer Lingus itself, in its first quarter results, said it remains strongly in favour of the IAG's offer, but the bid still needs to gain acceptance from both Ryanair and the Irish government.

The Irish cabinet is set to study the recommendation at its weekly meeting on Tuesday, according to Prime Minister Enda Kenny, the FT said. Sources close to the matter cited by the newspaper said the government believes it has won significant concessions from IAG on the future of Aer Lingus' take-off and landing slots at Heathrow, a key stumbling block standing in the way of the deal.

The advisers are understood to have told the Irish government that IAG's takeover bid is fair, the FT reported, though even if the government approves the deal Tuesday, it will still face a parliamentary vote, amid fierce opposition to the deal from opposition political parties.
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Markets: UK stocks are trading slightly but broadly lower, having opened flat to higher, with the heavily weighted oil and banking sectors weighing on blue-chip and mid-cap indices, while concerns about Greece's financial position drag down the euro. Futures indicate Wall Street for a lower open, with the DJIA down 0.1% and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 down 0.2%.

FTSE 100: down 0.2% at 7,015.33
FTSE 250: down 0.1% at 18,178.78
AIM ALL-SHARE: flat at 766.88
GBP: down at USD1.5413
EUR: down at USD1.0916
GOLD: down at USD1,195.52 an ounce
OIL (Brent): down at USD65.21 a barrel
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Top Corporate News
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AstraZeneca said Amgen has terminated their co-development and commercialisation deal for monoclonal antibody brodalumab after observing "suicidal ideation and behaviour events" in the programme that might result in "restrictive labelling". Brodalumab was developed by Amgen and was in development for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, and axial spondyloarthritis. The two companies entered into a collaboration deal in April 2012 for five monoclonal antibodies from Amgen's clinical inflammation portfolio, including brodalumab. AstraZeneca said it will confirm its decision on the future development of brodalumab as soon as possible based on further review of the data.
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Royal Dutch Shell executives have said the oil reserves the company is hoping to find in the Arctic are unlikely to brought into production before the 2030s due to the difficulty involved in securing environmental approvals, the Financial Times reports. Marvin Odum, head of oil and gas production for Shell in the Americas, told the FT the company's success or failure this year and in 2016 in making a significant discovery will be critical for the future of oil development in the Arctic region.
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UK telecommunications regulator Ofcom outlined plans for the auction of 2.3 gigahertz and 3.4 gigahertz spectrum bands, and launched a consultation with potential bidders on how to proceed with the auction. The spectrum bands are being released for civil use and could be suitable for providing high data capacity.
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Cineworld Group reported a rise in revenue in the first 19 weeks of 2015 as sales grew in each of its divisions, and said it is confident it will meet market expectations for the full year. The cinema operator said total sales in the 19 weeks to May 14 grew 26.8% on the year before, with the box office growing 23.8%, retail rising 27.9% and other income up 47.1%. Cineworld said that all the territories in which it operates showed year-on-year growth, with the exception of Slovakia which had a small decline. Total revenue in the UK and Ireland grew 8.8%.
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Nostrum Oil & Gas said its earnings and revenue dropped in the first quarter of 2015 as the low oil price offset a rise in production for the Kazakhstan-focused oil and gas company. Nostrum said its earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation in the first quarter to the end of March was USD48 million, down 41% from the USD81.5 million it posted in the fourth quarter of 2014. The earnings were dragged lower by a 38% fall in revenue in the quarter, down to USD100 million from USD161.3 million, though Nostrum said additional revenue of around USD13 million from the quarter will be recognised in the second quarter from export gas sales.
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Software company Micro Focus International reiterated its full-year guidance on a pro-forma basis including its acquisition of The Attachmate Group Inc, saying the result "reflects a strong finish" to its recently ended financial year.
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Secure Income REIT said it has exchanged contracts for the sale of the freehold on the Madame Tussauds site in Marylebone Road in central London for GBP332.5 million. Secure Income REIT is selling the freehold on the site to Fubon Life Insurance Co, the Taiwan-based life insurer. The property is let to Merlin Attractions Operations Ltd, a subsidiary of FTSE 100-listed Merlin Entertainments.
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Stonegate, the owner of the Slug & Lettuce and Yates's pub chains, is understood to have been sounding out bankers about a London stock market listing, Sky News reported. TDR Capital, the private equity owner of Stonegate, has started talks for a float which could emerge in 2016, Sky said, with the company set to be valued at around GBP1 billion.
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AIM Movers
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Inditherm, up 63%. The heating products company has proposed a reverse takeover of medical device distribution firm Inspiration Healthcare Ltd, a share consolidation, and changing its name to Inspiration Healthcare Group. The proposals include a share consolidation of every ten existing ordinary shares into one new share, following which the vendors of Inspiration Healthcare will receive 25.56 million new shares or 83.3% of the company's enlarged share capital as consideration for the reverse takeover, which values Inspiration at GBP7.2 million. Premier African Minerals, up 22%. The company's shares have jumped after it said it remains on track with the RHA Tungsten project in Zimbabwe. Coms, up 22%. The company has agreed to sell the business and some assets of its telecoms operations to Timico for an initial GBP2.5 million, with a further GBP1 million payable depending on the trading performance of the business. Following the completion of the sale, Coms will be comprised of its remaining infrastructure business Redstone and London video production company Darkside Studios. Eden Research, up 21%. Shares in the company are up after it announced that its first product 3AEY has been authorised for the treatment of botrytis in table and wine grapes from the Regulatory Affairs Directorate in Malta. ScotGold Resources, up 17%. The company's share price has surged after it said the total ore reserve estimate for the Cononish gold project in Scotland has nearly doubled. It said the total ore reserve estimate, provided by Bara Consulting Ltd, has been increased to 198,000 ounces of gold, nearly triple the previous estimate, and 851,000 ounces of silver. The life of mine has been increased to approximately eight years, the company said, at a processing rate of 72,000 tonnes per year. The average annual gold equivalent production for Cononish has been increased to around 23,000 ounces per year.

William Sinclair Holdings, off 18%. The horticultural products company has warned that it will face a funding shortfall over the summer and is considering options on how to raise cash, as it said it has appointed an interim chief executive officer. Minds + Machines Group, down 11%. Shares in the company have fallen despite it reporting a rise in pretax profit for 2014 as a result of gains from participating in auctions for new generic top level domains during the year. The company also announced the departure of Executive Chairman Fred Kreuger. Keith Teare has been appointed as non-executive chairman. Publishing Technology, down 11%. The publishing software and services company has proposed a discounted share placing to raise up to GBP9 million and an open offer to raise a further GBP1 million, which it plans to use to pay down its debts, as it posted a swing to a pretax loss for 2014.
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Top Economics And General
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A Greek government spokesman played down suggestions by two leading cabinet ministers that the country is about to default on its debt, saying all efforts were being taken to repay a looming IMF loan on schedule. Gabriel Sakellaridis said Greece would maintain repayments to its EU-IMF creditors for as long as possible. He also rejected the idea of possible capital controls that would restrict money transfers and access to savings. On Sunday, the country's interior minister had said Greece does not have the money to make a repayment to the IMF by June, and New Democracy MP Dora Bakogiannis had said on national television that the government may be forced to impose capital controls in banks if it fails to reach a deal with international creditors before the upcoming three-day long Pentecost weekend.
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British Prime Minister David Cameron and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker on Monday began renegotiating the terms of Britain's EU membership ahead of an in-out referendum. Cameron hosted a dinner for Juncker at Chequers, the prime minister's official residence in southern England, officials said. Cameron is to travel to several European capitals this week, including Paris and Berlin, to push his case for reform. He is expected to give more details to his plans for the referendum in a speech to the state opening of parliament on Wednesday.
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Meanwhile, Cameron told Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday that the two nations must cooperate to implement the Minsk ceasefire agreement on Ukraine despite "deep differences" between them. Cameron told Putin by telephone that "they would continue to have deep differences but that the priority now must be to deliver full implementation of the Minsk agreement," his spokesman said.
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British retailers posted strong growth in sales this month and their outlook for sales and orders improved at an even stronger pace in the year to June, the quarterly Distributive Trades Survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed. A balance of 51% said sales increased in May, up from the prior month's balance of 12% and expectations of 40%. Sales were well above average for the time of year, to the greatest extent since April 2007, the survey showed. Retailers expect sales volumes to grow again next month, as the balance rose to 58% for June. The business lobby said expectations for next month are at their highest level for 27 years.
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The Chinese government has decided to cut import tariffs on consumer goods such as cosmetics, shoes, clothes and diapers in June, in a bid to boost domestic consumption amid slowing economic growth. Import taxes on some products will be lowered by an average over 50%, starting June 1, the Ministry of Finance said in a statement on Monday. Tariffs on imported clothes will be slashed 7-10% from 14-23%. The levy on imported cosmetics will be reduced to 2% from 5% and the tax on imported shoes and boots is set to be halved to 12%. Import tariffs on diapers will be cut to 2% from 7.5%.
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Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of JPY53.44 billion in April, the Ministry of Finance said on Monday. The headline figure beat expectations for a deficit of JPY386.8 billion following the upwardly revised JPY50 billion surplus in March (originally JPY3.3 billion). Exports climbed 8.0% on year - also topping forecasts for an increase of 6.0% following the 8.5% jump in the previous month.
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Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi hit back at criticisms of his country's security forces over the fall of the western city of Ramadi to Islamic State jihadists. A day after US Defence Secretary Ash Carter said Iraqi forces had "showed no will to fight" over the capital of al-Anbar province, al-Abadi said that the city would be recaptured "within days." The jihadists had only captured "a small area inside Ramadi," while government forces had gained ground outside the city, the prime minister told the BBC.
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A tornado and torrential rains hit northern Mexico as well as the US states of Texas and Oklahoma Monday, killing at least 18 people and leaving thousand of homes damaged, news reports said. Thirteen people were killed in Ciudad Acuna on the border with the US by the tornado, and about 1,500 houses were destroyed, the mayor of the town told Mexican media. A further 5 people were killed over the border in the US states of Texas and Oklahoma by floods on Saturday and Sunday, local media reported.
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Hundreds of anti-government protesters took to the streets of Burundian capital Bujumbura on Monday after an opposition politician was killed at the weekend. The government has denied involvement in the killing of Zedi Feruzi, leader of the small opposition party Union for Peace and Democracy, but demonstrators were not convinced.
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Afternoon Watchlist (all times in BST)

13:30 US Durable Goods Orders
13:55 US Redbook index
14:00 US Housing Price Index
14:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
15:00 US New Home Sales
15:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
15:00 US Consumer Confidence
15:00 US New Home Sales
15:30 US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index
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Wednesday's UK Corporate Events

Brewin Dolphin Holdings - Half Year Results
De La Rue - Full Year Results
Telford Homes - Full Year Results
HSS Hire Group - Trading Statement
Wizz Air - Full Year Results
McKay Securities - Full Year Results
Urban&Civic - Half Year Results
Arrow Global Group - Q1 Results
Caledonia Investments - Full Year Results
Scapa Group - Full Year Results
Fusionex International - Half Year Results
TR Property Investment Trust - Full Year Results
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Wednesday's Key Economic Events (all times in BST)

00:50 Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
01:10 US Fed's Lacker speech
07:00 Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey
07:00 Switzerland UBS Consumption Indicator
07:45 France Consumer Confidence
11:00 EU EU Financial Stability Review
12:00 US MBA Mortgage Applications
15:00 Canada BOC Interest Rate Decision and Statement
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By Tom Waite; thomaslwaite@alliancenews.com; @thomaslwaite

Copyright 2015 Alliance News Limited. All Rights Reserved.


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