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Q4 sales up 1% vs forecast decline of 1.6%
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Analysts say "mixed bag" results unlikely to impress market
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2025 has started 'rather well,' CEO says
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Louis Vuitton seeing double-digit growth
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By Mimosa Spencer, Tassilo Hummel
PARIS, Jan 28 (Reuters) - LVMH has made a good start to 2025, CEO Bernard Arnault said on Tuesday, after the luxury conglomerate posted a slight rise in fourth-quarter sales, though analysts cautioned it may still fall short of heightened market expectations after recent share gains.
The owner of Louis Vuitton handbags and Bulgari jewellery said fourth-quarter sales for the three months to end-December rose 1% to 23.9 billion euros ($25 billion) in a further sign the luxury sector is recovering from a recent downturn.
But analysts cautioned the sales beat was largely priced in after the stock gained more than 18% since the start of the year, largely buoyed by expectation-beating results from industry peers including Cartier owner Richemont and Burberry.
"I think the result would have needed to be even more solid to justify the stock market gains we've seen, so I wouldn't be surprised if there's a little dip tomorrow morning," Bernstein analyst Luca Solca told Reuters. The group's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) were down 4.5% at $151.68 on Wednesday.
"It's not going to become a habit, I won't announce record results," Arnault said as he presented the full-year figures, but added cautious optimism, saying the group still had "all it takes to further improve our position as the market leader."
The sector has been wrestling with its slowest sales in years, with consultancy Bain & Company estimating they fell globally by 2% last year, weighed down by China's sluggish economy.
Arnault added the new year started on a more dynamic footing, with double-digit growth rates seen at its flagship Louis Vuitton brand and jeweller Tiffany among some other brands. "2025 has started well," Arnault said.
"LVMH has delivered a mixed-bag set of results," said Piral Dadhania, analyst at RBC, pointing to the group's profit margin which fell short of expectations due to higher costs.
Finance chief Jean-Jacques Guiony said the group's margin was weighed down by "a number of one-off effects," citing increased staff costs due to LVMH's role in the Paris 2024 Olympics and an employee share scheme, among other nonrecurring events.
LVMH's overall fourth-quarter sales growth outpaced an expected 1.6% decline, according to a consensus forecast cited by Morgan Stanley.
LVMH's fashion division, home to its top-earning Louis Vuitton and Dior labels, reported fourth-quarter sales of 11.1 billion euros, a year-on-year decline in organic terms of 1%, but beating a consensus forecast for a 3.3% fall.
The division accounts for almost half of LVMH revenue and three-quarters of its recurring profit.
Arnault said Dior faced a "difficult environment," adding he remained "confident" in the brand. "I won't call it optimism" because one must always remain cautious, he added.
Dior, led by the CEO's daughter, Delphine Arnault, grew rapidly during the post-pandemic boom but finance chief Guiony told journalists the unit performed at a slower pace than Louis Vuitton last quarter. "There has to be a bit of a pause at some point," Guiony said.
'WIND OF OPTIMISM' Asked about his view of the U.S. market since President Donald Trump took office, CEO Arnault said he was struck by "a wind of optimism going through the country" which he said was a contrast to the mood in France.
Arnault and wife Helene Mercier, as well as two of his children, Delphine and Alexandre, attended Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20 alongside other billionaires. The family's prominent placement at the ceremony was seen as a sign it is well positioned to protect its business in the U.S. despite Trump's threats of import tariffs across industries, on which Arnault declined to comment.
LVMH sales rose 3% last quarter in the U.S. and 4% in Europe, while they declined 10% in the Asia region, less than the 16% drop in the third quarter.
Luxury shares, which have been volatile since the winding down of a post-pandemic boom, have risen sharply since the start of 2025, with Richemont up 25%, Hermes up 15% and LVMH up 19%.
