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STOXX 600 Europe up 0.1%
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Oil stocks rise after Saudi output cuts
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Euro zone business growth slowed in May
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U.S. stock futures mixed
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INVESTORS IN (MOSTLY) BULLISH MOOD (1035 GMT)
Global equities are at their highest level in 13 months, recently getting a boost from the AI-induced tech rally, and sentiment across different regions is improving.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up 33% year to date, while most major equity markets in Europe, the U.S. and Asia are posting strong returns in 2023.
Proprietary data from index provider Qontigo showed investor sentiment improved in most markets they track in the last week, after the resolution of U.S. debt ceiling negotiations and the avoidance of a catastrophic sovereign default.
"Investors ended last week in a bullish mood in six out of ten markets we follow, with demand for risk far exceeding supply, indicating that further upside is likely in the short term," writes Olivier d'Assier, Head of Applied Research, APAC at Qontigo.
According to d'Assier, markets are in a chicken-and-egg game, trying to guess whether the strong economy will force central banks to keep raising interest rates or whether higher interest rates will force a recession.
"Risk-tolerant investors are focused on the defiance of the economy while risk-averse investors are focused on the consequences of higher interest rates," d'Assier says.
"Unfortunately for the latter, markets have decided that for now, the chicken happens to taste better."
(Samuel Indyk)
SLOWING GROWTH + LESS LIQUIDITY = 10% CORRECTION (0911 GMT)
Morgan Stanley sees a torrid summer for European stocks.
And to translate its pessimism into numbers, the U.S. bank expects the combo of slowing growth and deteriorating liquidity to result in a 10% contraction for the region's equity market.
"YTD equity resilience is likely to become increasingly challenged over the next 3 months as economic momentum disappoints and liquidity conditions tighten further," write MS strategists led by Graham Secker.
Less bearishly, however, they note how even though "investor sentiment may be low... positioning is more normal" and relatively low valuations should limit downside to one tenth.
But whereas they anticipate short-term pain for Europe Inc, the future may be brighter. This means the coming months may offer an "attractive" entry point for long-term investors.
"Medium term, we think Europe's relative performance is reasonably protected by a low starting valuation and more resilient EPS trends. Longer term, the region could benefit from global investors rebalancing portfolios to increase exposure to 'International Value' where Europe is arguably the best proxy".
Its new 12-month index target for the MSCI Europe is 8% above current spot levels. MS now sees an EPS decline of 6% for 2023 to be followed by a 6% growth in 2024.
(Danilo Masoni)
STOXX UP, ENERGY RALLIES, TELECOMS BOUNCE
European shares inched higher in early trading on Monday, boosted by gains in energy stocks on rising crude prices and a bounce in the telecom sector following Friday's rout on reports of low-cost competition from Amazon.
The region-wide was 0.1% higher as gains in energy and telcos, up 1.2% and 0.9% respectively, more than offset weakness across big luxury stocks, led by LVMH , and tech.
Here's your opening snapshot:
(Danilo Masoni)
EUROPE SET FOR MIXED START (0633 GMT)
European shares were set to start the week without clear direction, as the boost from the U.S. payrolls report on Friday fizzled out and after Saudi Arabia pledged big output cuts, which lifted crude prices.
Futures on the commodity-heavy FTSE 100 index added 0.3%, EuroSTOXX50 contracts traded just below par. S&P 500 futures were muted, while in Asia, shares caught up with Friday's global rally and found support from data showing China's services activity picked up in May.
Corporate newsflow in Europe was thin so far, although there was some minor dealmaking activity.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management made a $600-million bid for Norwegian aquaculture service group Froy, while Novo Nordisk said it started talks to buy a controlling stake in French medical device designer Biocorp.
In banks, UBS expects to complete its takeover of Credit Suisse "as early as June 12".
Finally, streaming company Viaplay replaced its chief executive after cutting its growth projections.
(Danilo Masoni)
HAWKISH PAUSE FOR THOUGHT? (0548 GMT)
All eyes are on interest rates to start the week, in Europe as well as the United States.
Chris Weston, head of research at Australia's Pepperstone, called Friday's U.S. payrolls report a "nirvana" of strong job creation and weaker wage growth, and it continues to colour everything.
The dollar remains on top on the view that a probable "skip" by the Fed next week just cements a hike in July, and any thoughts of rate cuts this year are getting cleared from the table.
Asian equities are carrying on the global rally, setting Europe up nicely to do the same.
The Fedspeak that has been such a big driver of markets in recent weeks, will go quiet in the days ahead with officials in a blackout period.
Not so for the ECB, whose chief Christine Lagarde gives introductory remarks today at a hearing before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs.
There's been a slight pullback in expectations for further tightening after last week's data showed euro-area CPI cooling more than analysts predicted.
Lagarde said that day that there was still "ground to cover" in the tightening cycle.
The latest comments from an ECB official are more dovish though, with Bank of Italy governor Ignazio Visco saying a decline in energy costs should help cool inflation.
For today, Saudi Arabia is doing its part to keep crude oil away from those late-2021 lows of recent weeks, pledging an additional 1 million barrel-a-day production cut on top of an OPEC+-agreed pledge to restrict output that's seen Brent back to just below $79.
Elsewhere, Turkey's lira continued its sharp descent since the re-election of President Tayyip Erodogan, despite the weekend appointment of highly regarded Mehmet Simsek as finance minister, in a signal the country is moving away from unorthodox interest rate cuts in the face of high inflation.
The lira weakened more than 1% to 21.12 per dollar in thin Asian trading, approaching the record low of 21.80 marked last week.
Key developments that could influence markets on Monday:
Germany trade data
Switzerland CPI
Spain, Italy, France, Germany, euro area, UK PMIs
Euro area PPI
US PMIs, factory and durable goods orders
(Kevin Buckland)
