Last checked at 
* Two biggest oil firms have finished major projects
* Exxon, Shell able to cut 2015 spending
* All oil majors face 2015 negative cashflow
* Set to increase borrowing easily to cover shortfalls
By Ron Bousso and Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON, March 10 (Reuters) - The world's two biggest oilfirms, Exxon Mobil Corp and Royal Dutch Shell,may withstand the oil price collapse better than their rivalsbecause they are closer to finishing expensive investmentprojects while others must keep spending.
The near halving of oil prices since June is likelyto send all the biggest listed oil companies into negative cashflow this year, and has sparked a rush to cut costs across thesector as a result. But depending on where they are in theirspending cycles, some companies are finding those cuts easier tomake than others.
"Both (Exxon and Shell) had already entered a lower spendingphase, with major projects reaching completion and coming onstream over the next two years," Moody's rating company said ina report.
Exxon started eight major oil and gas production projectslast year in locations ranging from Papua New Guinea to the Gulfof Mexico and Abu Dhabi.
Shell started four big production start-ups last year in theCardamom and Mars B oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico as well asother oil fields in Nigeria and Malaysia.
As a result Exxon, the world's biggest publicly traded oilcompany, was able to cut its 2015 project spending by 11 percentto around $34 billion without significant impact on itsproduction. Shell, the second-largest, opted for a $15 billioncut over the next three years and maintained its 2015 capitalspending at $35 billion which will also not affect its output.
Chevron and Total, on the other hand, areboth in the midst of large project spending cycles, and willhave to tap into more debt in order to stay afloat, Moody'ssaid.
Elsewhere BP, despite cutting costs and jobs andfreezing salaries, still faces sizeable outgoings related to its2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill fine and its stake in Russian oilchampion Rosneft.
Most big oil firms announced cuts of 10 to 15 percent totheir 2015 budgets versus last year. Some suspended sharebuybacks, revived dividend payment via company stock, known asscrip shares, and maintained dividends flat in order to boostcashflows.
While all companies are expected to keep paying highdividends by increasing borrowing, Anglo-Dutch Shell andTexas-based Exxon appear to be most able to cover both spendingand dividend payouts if oil prices stay at their current $60 abarrel.
They are also likely to be able to pick up bargain assets,while the price collapse shakes the sector out.
"Those who have stronger balance sheets would be able toacquire more assets in the downturn, for example distressed andcheap U.S. shale producers," said Kirill Pyshkin who helpsmanage over $400 million in global and U.S. equity funds atMirabaud Asset Management in London, including shares in Shell.
Pyshkin noted too: "If oil prices recover they won't have tosacrifice their growth budgets and hence will be growing fasterthan peers in future."
LOWER BREAKEVEN
Exxon and Shell also lead the rest of the pack in terms ofwhere their cashflow breaks even. They can survive on a muchlower price of oil to cover project spending, operating costsand dividend payments.
According to analysts at Jefferies, Shell and Exxon bothhave 2015 breakevens of around $75 to $80 a barrel.
While that's still significantly higher than the average2015 Brent price of around $56 a barrel, it's healthier thanChevron, BP and Eni's breakevens which Jefferies forecast ataround $95, $100 and $120 a barrel respectively.
For some however, while Exxon is a safe investment, itsdividend is relatively low compared to its peers and its sharesoffer little upside because of the steady course the firm is nowon. Other peers and smaller companies offer better returns.
"Although it (Exxon) retains significant defensive strengthsshould oil prices dip again, we think the market is nowbeginning to deploy its investment dollars in higher riskplays," BMO Capital Markets analyst Iain Reid wrote in a note toinvestors.
Reid's key pick is Shell, which still has "plenty offirepower to deliver further upside via more aggressiverestructuring". Total, which is further behind in the spendingcycle may however also offer higher returns for investors in thefuture, Reid added.
According to Reuters data, 15 out of 23 polled analysts areneutral on Exxon shares, while 5 rate it a "buy". Shell is moreattractive for analysts, with 10 out of 20 recommending a "buy"and 9 a "hold".
Total remains the most robust stock, with 17 "buy", 16 "holdand 2 "sell" recommendation.
BORROWING UP
All of the big oil firms are expected to see negative cashflows this year, according to Moody's, and will turn toborrowing in order to cover costs.
All have indicated they would have no problem increasingborrowing this year, given their debt-to-equity ratios below 20percent.
"The majors with their AA and AAA ratings still have accessto attractive sources of funding. Their balance sheets have thecapacity to absorb one or two years of low prices," said WoodMackenzie analyst Tom Ellacott. (Additional reporting by Claire Milhench; Editing by SophieWalker)
