The Georgian Election

Edison Research publishes the results of a public opinion poll on pre-election sentiments
https://www.interpressnews.ge/ka/article/623313-edison-research-i-cinasaarchevno-gancqobebis-shesaxeb-sazogadoebrivi-azris-kvlevis-shedegebs-akveqnebs

Two opinion polls have appeared since I last wrote about them. The first comes from Edison. Must give a warning here. Looking on Wiki at the list of previous polls, Edison always gives GD a much higher mark-up than the other polling companies. In their previous polls (excluding their first one), they always give GD a % in the mid to upper 30's. The other polling companies usually place them in the 20's. Edison are an international company with a decent reputation - but it does look iffy.
(To see Wiki's election page, go to www.wikipedia.org and look for '2020 Georgian parliamentary election').

These are the figures. They include a new party, Strategy Aghmashenebili(SA), which is already the 4th largest, and 2 other tinies (shown as others), which don't show up on the Wiki page as Wiki haven't changed their display to be able to show them! :-
Party id. % (after exclusion of non-voters) Number of proportional seats won if % is correct

GD 47.4 57
UNM 22.4 27
EG 6.6 8
SA 5.3 6
SLP 3.9 5
APG 3.9 5
Girchi 2.6 3
Lelo 2.6 3
DMUG 1.3 2
Citizens 1.3 2
Others(4) 2.6 3

GD/Opposition % total 51.3/48.7
" MPs 62/58

The next poll is by IPSOS.
Although GD are up here on the previous IPSOS polls, their nasty little friends, APG, have declined, and so there is very little change in the GD/Opposition ratio. Here are the figures, ordered as above :-

GD 39.7 48
UNM 27.0 32
EG 8.0 10
SA 7.7 9
SLP 3.2 4
APG 1.8 2
DMUG 1.1 1
Citizens 0.8 1
Gerchi 4.1 5
Lelo 4.1 5
Others (1) 2.6 2

GD/Opposition % total 41.5/59.5
" MPs 50/69 (1 lost in rounding).

So, depending on the pollster, it looks like either a safe opposition victory; or a small GD one. Either way, it should be a vast improvement on the current crushing GD majority. Fingers crossed.

US Embassy & EU Delegation: Georgia Needs Parliament Able to Address Immediate Challenges

"Georgia needs a parliament able to play its role to address the immediate challenges; all political sides need urgently to take responsibility for ensuring such an outcome," reports the joint statement released by the US Embassy and the EU Delegation in Tbilisi.

The statement notes that a credible and inclusive legal process is needed to correct substantiated election violations.

"We call upon all Georgians who plan to exercise their right to assembly on 8 November to do so peacefully and with respect to COVID-19 precautions, and call on the Georgian authorities to assist in providing for such an environment.

"With regard to the ongoing electoral process, we encourage political parties to continue addressing allegations of electoral violations by using the legal means within the democratic processes that Georgia has built over the past 20 years.

"A credible and inclusive legal process for remedying substantiated electoral violations is necessary to ensure that the will of the voters is respected, that public confidence in the electoral process is assured, and to ensure the public can accept the election results as legitimate. We stand ready to contribute as required to achieving these objectives. A credible and inclusive legal process for remedying substantiated electoral violations is necessary to ensure that the will of the voters is respected, that public confidence in the electoral process is restored, and to ensure the public can accept the election results as legitimate. We stand ready to contribute as required to achieving these objectives.

"Georgia needs a parliament able to play its role to address the immediate challenges of economic turmoil, a pandemic and regional tensions, as well as to enact additional reforms to improve the country's democratic, legal and electoral processes for the future. All political sides need urgently to take responsibility for ensuring such an outcome," reads the statement.

07 November 2020 21:05

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/22967/US-Embassy-%26-EU-Delegation%3A-Georgia-Needs-Parliament-Able-to-Address-Immediate-Challenges

UNM Leader Urges Opposition to Immediately Move the Process to Negotiating Table

Grigol Vashadze, one of the leaders of the United National Movement, has released a statement regarding the ongoing political processes and street rallies in the country, calling on all the opposition parties to immediately move the process to the negotiating table.

"Let's replace the street with a tribune of legislators of all levels," this is the main message of his address.

He said that neither the government nor the opposition, despite the well-founded arguments and protests of the opposition, has the right to tolerate the development of unruly processes.

The online edition New Post first published Vashadze's statement. The "National Movement" has confirmed that his statement is authentic, however, they refrain from talking about additional details.

"Grigol Vashadze's statement was not a position agreed with the party leaders and the political council," Khatia Dekanoidze, one of the UNM leaders, said on Facebook.

"It is unfortunate that the party chairman is making such a statement without discussion. We are not against negotiations, only with terms shared by the entire opposition spectrum," she noted.

Initially, the National Movement was among the parties that did not recognize the results of the October 31 parliamentary elections and called on the people to protest. They said that they would not enter the parliament and demanded both early parliamentary elections and a change in the composition of the Central Election Administration.

Later, Grigol Vashadze released an explanation regarding his statement.

"I will further explain:

Citizens' protests must continue;

A political component must be added to this protest immediately - through the mediation of strategic allies in the form of negotiations on the implementation of the principles of fair elections;

Until/if the negotiations are successful, we will neither participate in the second round nor enter the Parliament;

"Once and for all, we should all work hard so that in the future street protests do not replace the normal process due to election fraud," Vashadze was quoted as saying by the party's press service.

Rallies have been held since the announcement of the October 31 Parliamentary Election results in Georgia, declaring the ruling party Georgian Dream as the winner. Opposition members and supporters claim that the election was rigged and demand the re-appointment of the elections and the resignation of the CEC chairperson Tamar Zhvania.

By Ana Dumbadze

10 November 2020 15:02

http://georgiatoday.ge/news/22991/UNM-Leader-Urges-Opposition-to-Immediately-Move-the-Process-to-Negotiating-Table

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