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Good Morning All - just a quick note before I go off with the dog enjoying this wonderful sunshine.
Having done a bit of research this morning, I must admit I am glad I sold out on Friday - my strategy going forward will be to have very little in the market overnight just in case (having learnt from my experiences during the financial crisis) and just try and trade the shakes and spikes if possible on Ocado - ie buying at £10.00 and selling at £10.60 would have been quite profitable - S - you'll need to keep your chart skills honed on IG going forward.
Anyway, Chinese PMI data has been released overnight and I think someone said they're the worst ever (nor surprising really seeing as a large part of the country has been in lockdown).
Composite PMI Actual 28.9 Vs 53.0 Previously
Manufacturing PMI Actual 35.7 Vs 50.0 Previously
Non-Manufacturing 29.6 Vs 54.1 Previously
I'm reading a lot of comment that the rest of the world PMI's will only start to show decline from April onwards, that there is likely to be a global economic recession brought on by the virus that will last until late 2021, and as a result of that, oil could drop to as low as $28 later this year, there will be a sell off of gold to bolster balance sheets so that is likely to drop to $800, and that finally the S&P will fall over time down to 1800 which is still higher than its low in the financial crisis.
I'm not saying all the above to scare monger anyone - the weekend is sometimes the best time to do your research, plan your strategy and have a clear head rather than be shocked/scared into doing something that would be the wrong thing for you/your portfolio.
I think investing in "safer" sectors like Ocado being in food will be a good thing - the volume/volatility is starting to pick up here quite dramatically so I know it sounds a bit mercinary, with the volatility brings great opportunity.
"A week is a long time in politics"...Harold Wilson.
Certainly agree with being out of stock over the weekend (2 days is a long time in trading), but not so sure about being out overnight. Yes, buying OCDO at £10 and selling at £10.60 yesterday would have been great. It just goes to show that the possible 6% gain is completely hidden by the headline rate of -1.5% change in the Thursday close to Friday close.
Weekend home work is a great idea. Trying to do it in trading hours is dangerous particularly if looking at a stock that is moving fast. I have made a short list of about 15 stocks to keep an eye on, probably invest in 5 or 6 hopefully some time in next month or two. IWG is a tricky one. Dixon has invested much of his own money about 11 million shares to date and also started a fair size buy back, currently about halfway through. Then it more or less capitulated from around £4.5 to £3.5 yesterday. It is very exposed to this virus being a global office space renter. Wework a similar US company had to pull its IPO late last year being rated at 12 times the value of IWG and not even profit making. IWG has been trying to franchise its operations with some success. The big USA deal never came off as far as I know, and news not forthcoming. Dixon is convinced he has created a no brainer, but they could end up with a lot of empty space. So even back at £3.50 not too sure. Workspace , a smaller UK company has done really well after I sold out, so far not reacting to the current blood bath. Definitely keep an eye on IWG, but too early yet I feel. We are at a cusp according to one US investor. It could bounce back or it may be just the start of a bear market. To be honest it always feels like that to me. Most crashes tend to come out of the blue. This one has been a good year coming and much heralded. So like the virus we may all be over cautious, but stay extremely vigilant.
S - the only reason I said about being out of the market overnight is with this virus, any news can come out at any time, so I'd rather treat each day as a new day if I can rather than have a potential shock like yesterday - taking your suggestion on board about buying in tranches though is a good one, and as much as I try and get in the habit, I sometimes forget so its just a routine/habit that I really need to get into quite quickly with the volatility I'm expecting over the next few months - be all good fun though.
O - you seem to like to invest in growth companies rather than trade - I do watch Bloomberg quite a bit and WeWork was on there quite a bit leading up to what ended up being a failed/withdrawn IPO - from what I understand/what Bloomberg were implying were along the lines of the company being a bit of a ponzi/pyramid scheme if I remember correctly. I did read what you were saying last night about some of your experiences and that you read The Naked Trader - I know he has a lot of followers and a lot of people rate his book - its something that I must get around to reading myself.
I found a twitter account earlier - IGSquawk - it gives information about the futures market on Monday - at the moment they all seem to be down at least 1%, but given the data out of China this morning, I wouldn't be surprised to see a larger sell off first thing so opportunity should be there.
I did respond to a post on Ocado on Friday (which I'm not going to do again - I'm banning the site!) confirming that I also had an email from Ocado saying that they were getting extremely busy and encouraging people to book delivery slots - maybe the start of a very busy period for them.
You're right in what you're saying O in that no-one knows whether this is really only a blip and things will rebound, or whether a full blown crisis is going to develop so thats why I'm trying to watch, listen and learn everything I can about the short/medium/longer term implications of this virus because that is what is going to drive the market sentiment over the next few months. I got badly burned in the financial crisis - partly due to my own naiveté at the time, and partly down to how quickly things changed after Lehmans were allowed to go down, that these days I am far more cautious in what/how I trade and I like to know as much as I can so that I can anticipate/am more prepared for what may be ahead of us.
You're right, weekend research is better, the distance away from the "action" is calming.
I remember Dixon of IWG now, I think he started the company and has personally resisted a couple of takeover attempts. I will continue to monitor them, 350 is a good price but perhaps as you say, it is a little early to be putting a toe into the water.
I need my head examining but I was looking at Novacyt NVCT, perhaps I am trying to replace the excitement of NMC!
Ha, have a good weekend.
Yes you do need your head examining if you're thinking of NYCT.
I think there's going to be a lot of volatility over the next few months so you'll be spoilt for choice looking for the replacement to the excitement of NMC - I think travel companies/airlines/hotel groups will be the ones that are going to be affected the most and are therefore likely to be the most active.
Don't blame you for trying NCYT at all. as tempted myself. Its got more in common with a bucking bronco. When it first took off someone suggests £7 by the end of week and finally a target of £22! as it slid back to 60p. The main issue for me assuming all these warrants have raised enough cash to put it into production was will there be any need for it once a vaccine has been discovered or we have a full blown pandemic. All the time there are these uncertainties 30% - 100% daily movements making some a mint and others have got burnt. Gl . I still think Ocado will be a £40 share eventually but this was trending down too long for my liking before the virus thing kicked in. Anyway GL with it. Maybe we could have a share club here, where we pitch in ideas and pool our researches, bound to have some crossover but also some different ideas too.
Good evening all, I have just watched a film called "Betting on Zero" (on Netflix) about a battle to prove whether Herbalife is a ponzi scheme. Interesting battle between shorts and longs as well as an important human interest story.
Trying to set some Limits for selling tomorrow and can't come up with suitable numbers. I guess I will have to wait until the open. I have to be out of the house by 8.30 am tomorrow so I will be a bit squeezed. Of course I can apply Rule 8 (and Rule 9 ) and do nothing. FTSE future currently +1.25%
I like the idea of a share club, sharing ideas and research on shares. I would have to give a serious wealth warning on my suggestions though, I tend to be a bit impulsive.
Hopefully I've learnt some lessons on impulsiveness. It is only suggestions for companies to look at. As the naked trader says 'please don't buy shares on the basis of what I have bought because I may have sold them again already. In fact he has already updated his site on shares he has reduced, which is good of him. Even though he thinks the market is over reacting. I expect a lot of traders are thinking that way , but some institutions are obliged to sell when the markets get like this. US futures current down 400. Ballin Gifford appear to have bought back the shares they sold in OCDO the previous week which is slightly surprising although in the numbers the deal in probably got them about a million cheaper than they sold them. Be nice if we could make a million a week on two trades in the same shares. Assumes that they will return to level they sold at which is looking a little fragile tonight. Going to be another jaw dropping week I suspect
Good morning - what a change a few hours of manipulation can bring - from all futures being mega down last night to being mega positive this morning you would have thought that everything was well in the world!
I know The Naked Trader is more knowledgeable/experienced than I, but this sell off does remind me very much of the beginning of the financial crisis back in 2008 - a gradual but persistent sell off. I can't believe that he thinks the sell off is overdone considering the impact that the virus has had on China's GDP in such a short time, and the likely effect it will have on global GDP for a few months yet - I think I prefer to listen to the likes of Mohammed El Arian and Nuriel Roubini - I'm not normally a pessimist but I prefer to air on the side of caution as I think that will be the watch word until the virus shows that its under some sort of control.
According to Bloomberg just now, France's Finance Minister has just said the French economy will take a significant hit from the virus so that's going to be worldwide.
S - looks like the weather will be nice for you for your week off.
Good luck everyone.
Yes the weather looks not as bad as it has been lately but rain every day where we are going.
Still, it looks like the sun will come out somewhat on the market today unless or until there is some more bad news on the virus problem.
I guess you will be trying to get back into OCDO on the slightest shake or will you just watch from the sidelines for the time being? I am looking to buy back but I did only sell about half of my OCDO on friday, now, I wish I hadn't of course.
Shame about the rain S.
The one good thing about the uncertainty with the virus is that volatility has picked up significantly which make a massive difference when you're trying to trade the same share on a daily basis - yes, looking to buy back into Ocado today - I may not get it right all the time, but as long as I'm ahead by the end of each week then I'm happy. I hope we'll have volatility now for quite a while as it does make a massive difference over the longer term.
My strategy will still be the same as I mentioned on Saturday though - I'd rather not be holding very much overnight if I can help it as I think the markets will be a bit schizophrenic over the next few months.
According to Bloomberg this could be short covering before the next attack - although I'm disappointed to miss out on the gains on Ocado and MCRO this morning, I slept well which for me is the important point.
Have to wait for Ocado and MCRO to drop a bit - hopefully later.
Margin traders out I force this morning. Will be closing trades pretty quick later. Slightly les daft than trading with a credit card I suppose but I really think they should scrap TR trades. I remember an acquaintance doing this back in the nineties . Ended up having to double his mortgage to pay off losses poor bugger!
O - That's what got me in trouble in the financial crisis - I hadn't been trading that long really by the time the s**t hit the fan so to speak so had to borrow short term off a family member which was not a nice experience - until S said, I thought that all trading platforms were cash on account only these days.
Well I hope S is having a nice relaxing break rather than trading at the moment - I am quite happy so far today as I've been able to buy back my MCRO shares at £7.03 after selling them on Friday for £7.11 - I haven't bought back into OCDO yet though - not a surprise to see the markets down again - airlines/travel being hammered again I see.
Looks like the reports in the press about people panic buying and making huge online orders is making a difference to the Ocado share price today.
T. Doing nicely despite credit Suisse downgrade. Dow futures up 500 at one stage this morning now down 100. One or two share I really fancy but just don't think its worth the risk yet. Hope we haven't missed the boat with OCDO. Take out the Rose sale, Ballin Gifford fannying about, Corona virus and the downgrade and what are you left with ? Rising SP lol
O - I think we need to take it as an omen - the last time Ocado hit a bottom around November last year I think it was, I got fed up with the share price going down, thought I'd nip and buy some Tullow Oil as it had dropped over 20% odd to £1.36 ish, only to find about an hour later that the share price picked up and rallied by about £1 while I was gone - a bit like Friday/today.
I'm obviously a little upset that I missed out on just under £1 a share gain, but if last week we did actually hit that triple bottom that I've been saying about for ages, then I don't mind because there will be so much opportunity over the next few months to trade the share with the increased volume/volatility then good money should be made.
If I had of noticed it, I would have bought back in at £10.73ish, but before I knew it the share price was around the £11 mark so I'm happy to wait until tomorrow - doing a bit more research I have uncovered that the food sector should be shielded to a certain degree from the effects of the virus so I hopefully haven't lost too much my tomorrow.
I hope your day is going well - did you say that you were considering buying that pharma company on Friday or was it just S contemplating it?
We are in a cafe overlooking the sea, windy but sunny outside. I should have been trading today, I could have sold LLOY, saga, but and especially FEVR. Doh! Still, it is nice here.
Enjoy your "time off" - remember Rule 8 - there's loads of others you could have been trading too - MCRO and Ocado would have done well today if you bought/sold at the right times but could have been a nightmare if you didn't (like me on Ocado!).