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Whoops, my post copied/pasted a name from a couple old days ago "June Sarpong" for some reason - that was the first host of your face or mine ( a question off twitter!!! )
Meant to have been shift V not ctrl V !!!
Not trading OCDO yet - bought in at start of fall so over £2 /share down, hurts to sell at that loss, and not seen much movement in spikes / shakes that I would trust myself!
Traded MCRO a couple of times, generally goy the spike ( e.g. 805 on thursday or Friday ) but then had a "learning occurrence" - had set a buy limit at 760 thinking they probably wouldn't get that low before I could watch manually but they did .. so bought more shares at 760 - 3% - so down on those for now .. watching and waiting but if stay low will hold for the ex-divi in April.
I am the same as you with OCDO, two tranches both about £2 off the money.
I think I need to go back to Treacle's course on recognising spikes and shakes on OCDO. I seem to lost that part of my head.
Just done another SELL on NMC at 893 (fourth today) so am waiting for an opportunity to buy back in maybe below 875. Somebody on the NMC board mentioned that a lot of automatic NMC share trades were happening at 875/877 level so maybe that is a support level now.
Well I timed my walk well (not) -got soaked and the dog literally ran all the way back - normally she's not bothered about getting wet/muddy but it was blinking cold.
Anyway, back to OCDO - my theory has been that the share has been going through a "triple bottoming" process and needs to hit £10.75 before it can go forward. Part of me still thinks this is the case because I think a lot of this trading malarky is all about patterns/trends/technical analysis, but the other part of me is concerned about the corona virus - its now confirmed that someone on Tenerife has it - apparently they have been on the island for 6 days in a hotel with 1000+ people so you can just imagine the potential ripple effect that will have.
People will still need to eat food regardless, and perhaps because of the way that orders are filled in CFC's, Ocado may not be hit as hard as other retailers if the virus gets a hold here, but I really have no idea what may happen - I think its going to be a question of selling on what your confident is a spike, and buying on a shake - with a bit more volume those will become more obvious going forward.
I meant to say V, whilst you're probably a little disappointed in not getting the best price for MCRO yesterday, the price difference must have given you a nice additional number of shares, and obviously with the dividend due in April, the more shares you're accumulating at this level then the better it is as its not a bad dividend.
The mid june 2018 low of 1087 almost exactly matches price right now although a smidgen off the low on 12 Nov of 1075. The "neckline" at about 1350/1360 seems quite apparent. If you were certain of this being (almost) a triple bottom, are you planning to buy in again at that level? I understand if the virus problem uncertainty is too great to commit to buying.
I will be buying back in/trading it but am waiting for signs of a change in direction - if you look at the graph over the last few weeks (well since 15/1) its just been constantly down with only I think two days where there have been reasonable rises during the day.
I think you are seeing with NMC the benefits of trading in an up trending share and how much of a difference it can make to your income over the week - I've bought FRES for now just because I think that may start to go up quite a bit, and am still trading MCRO, but if I see a change in trend on OCDO I will be back in like a shot as I do think, virus allowing, that there will be good gains to be had there over the next few months - just my patience has worn a bit thin with it lately.
Yes, agree about the benefits of trading an uptrending share. I think I will hold off FRES, I just cannot get my head around yet another share. As you know my portfolio is so large I am thinking of calling it the dog tracker fund except it would be unkind to dogs! FRES has things going for it in these uncertain times, good luck.
I am still in MCRO (as is V) so would appreciate any guidance when you think they are a BUY/SELL. Thanks.
I am expecting a serious assault to beyond the 900p peak of NMC soon. If one of my tranches (I have 2 currently) is in profit by about 16.10 or 16.15, I will probably sell, even for £50 profit.
I think you're right to minimise the number of shares that you are monitoring - focusing on one rising share will bring its benefits rather than trying to spread yourself too thin - look at what you've achieved already - probably already hit your target seeing as you said this morning you had nearly reached this weeks figure already.
Yes I'll give you both the nod if/when I trade MCRO no problem, and considering how far the share price has come, I think you're taking the right approach with NMC - people will always have their own figure in mind of when they are going to take a profit and tomorrow is always another day.
Not much you can do S, V when over £2 down, it might take 6, 8 months, a year even - just have to hang on for Ocado to come back.
Even in Italy it is STILL mainly 84 year olds dying, who would probably die from severe flu too. It's a great excuse to spook the markets and scoop up bargains
Hi T, those other idiots having a go at what was said on chat room are pathetic, talking as if they paying for the priviledge...nobody stopping them commenting on Ocado and sharing their WEALTH? of knowledge.
Hi G - nice to see that you've found us - I know what you mean about free speech etc but its just not worth the hassle posting there any more - at least we all know/trust each other here and thats the important bit for me.
Is your place any where near the affected areas in Italy? I can kind of understand where you're coming from in respect of the elderly/people with pre-existing conditions that are likely to suffer the most from the virus, but its the uncertainty it creates which is what's impacting the market - and it could potentially get a lot worse for the market before it gets better - its just definitely a watch day by day situation.
I've been thinking of you in respect of both your OCDO and IAG shares - I know you're down on both of them, and I know I've tried to encourage you to trade just a tranche of them (obviously when market conditions permit) but it may well be worth your while considering it. I remember you saying a couple of months ago that you were working out your CGT liability for last year, and whilst it may not be palatable to you, it may be worth you taking a financial loss on some of your holdings so that you can start trading them again or protecting yourself from deeper losses - any loss you take now can be offset against capital gains for the next 7 years on a rolling basis so it may actually be quite a sensible move for you.
Obviously you know your own situation so maybe play around with a few calculations/scenarios so you can work out if it would be beneficial to you especially as there's only about 5 weeks of the tax year left.
Hi T, hope you well.
I'm down a ridiculous amount, so just putting head down, there is no way to trade out of this and CGT not worth binning shares to save £1000-1500. Just have to learn a lesson...obviously. I did tell myself FTSE 7600 was high probably drop back to 7000 at some point, well before the virus appeared...but didn't heed my own advice, nor did I keep back money as I told myself. Not really any proper logic to what I've been doing.
You did say you had been burned in past so I suppose you become more conservative in investing? more risk averse?
Our place is 1 hr from Pisa, just contacted someone I know and so far not the same panic there as reported near Venice.
Police over there ALWAYS have their machine guns out waving them at people, virus or no virus
Hoping to still go in April, but if some kid of rationing starts or shops/restaurants closed it might not be much fun..I'm not really expecting that...I mean we'll get the same in UK
Thousands of Chinese working in city of Prato next to Florence... that will be a hot bed if anything kicks off.
Despite everything, I'm still a bit surprised Ocado down quite so low. No idea where bottom is, but possibly slowed a little.
I'm down more than l like to admit to myself. I am making a bit of profit here and there but quietly ignoring the fact that most of my holdings have been reducing in value. I justify it by not selling, ii.e. not realising the loss. That will have to stop sometime.
I plan to go to France in April for 3 months, my usual routine but this virus business might change that I suppose.
G - yes, I've been well and truly burned over the years with shares and whilst I don't think I've been more conservative with my "trading pot", I make sure that I don't keep adding capital and rather just trade the number of shares that I have instead - I've also learned over the years about the range movements in a share price, and to look at what the graphs are telling us and I try not to let emotion get in the way - I don't always get it right but I always think tomorrow is another day - sometimes its FOMO that gets us all in trouble which in fairness is the only thing that caught you out.
One thing I will say though, which is something that you need to consider carefully, is whilst I understand your feelings about your losses, how would you feel if the losses were to double because of a big stock market sell off because of the virus - I'm not saying this to cause alarm, it's just something I wish I had considered/realised/thought of when I had my bank shares and when I first started trading - I bought a lot of my shares over a number of years at varying prices through different employee schemes - they peaked at £7 odd and my other half didn't want to sell because it was thought they were going to go higher. They dropped to £5, and again didn't sell even though I was still in profit, but thought I don't want to lose out and they'll get back to £7, which was the same at £4, £3, and £2 - I should have bitten the bullet and sold at £5 because they actually went down as low as 10p and they've never really recovered. In respect of my "trading pot" and when I first started trading, the shares were relatively steady at £2 odd and everyone thought that the financial crisis was just a blip and that the shares would recover - that was when I really got burnt because I bought shares on an extended settlement and then they crashed. The whole point of my saying this to you is perhaps you need to think of the maximum figure that you are prepared to see your capital reduce by and have the discipline to act should it come to that - I think there was something like Rule 6 - don't be afraid to take a loss if the market changes which was my biggest learning from the financial crash.
Hopefully the virus will peak within the next few weeks, and considering we've had six weeks of declines with Ocado, waiting a couple more for them to settle and hopefully start to turn around isn't going to hurt - fingers crossed that they don't go down much more.
If everything is to be believed in China, they've started allowing people out again now so hopefully by the time you're due to go to Italy everything will have blown over - fingers crossed anyway.
S - I think some of your shares like Tullow and HUR have been longer term holds - whilst its painful at the minute, I have read somewhere that HUR are expected to reach 32p so I don't know where that sits against your buy in price, and that Tullow may well reach 52p in the not too distant future - something to do with them selling something or other (according to Twitter it has been RNS'd somewhere but not at Tullow yet).
Thanks. That's positive news that I hadn't heard about HUR and TLW. I guess like G I'm holding on to a lot of holdings waiting/hoping for a recovery. I can afford to wait but starting to realise that maybe the funds could be better used elsewhere. It's funny really, I don't seem to be able to pick the winners as easily these days. A more disciplined (and focused) approach is needed. I still think your system can at least be the basis of that.
I did also lose money in 2008 as well and no, the banks have never recovered, but they are totally transformed beasts. I think even if IAG went to 4 or even 350 it wouldn't be out of the realms of possiblilities to return to 6 within a year, yes it's going to take a hit, but not an insurmountable recovery. If Ocado can stay above 10, then there is confidence that with some better news later in year, it could come good again.
I've got most of my money on Ocado and seeing that it's not related to the virus, that bothers me most, with such a change in sentiment so quickly. All is not lost just yet, as we saw with Easyjet last year, a company can recover from 850 to 1500 in a matter of months.
Good luck to everyone.
G - it was painful back in 2008 I think we can both agree - and we are different times now thankfully.
I totally agree with what you're saying in respect of both IAG and Ocado - the danger especially with IAG is if the virus gets worse and all of a sudden there's an international travel ban - extreme I know, but something to consider, then why sit and watch the share price go down when you have the option to take control of the situation and perhaps sell and then buy back in cheaper a few days/weeks later - I think its a bit like last year when they peaked and then fell back.
I'm really hoping that Ocado mirror what Easyjet did last year as I've said before - be lovely if they could double in price over the next six months - that would definitely put a smile on all our faces.
Well it looks like another down day today, FTSE -0.9%, down 62 points. That's 3 days in a row and will put us well below the important 7000 level.