Hi Ramborai - sorry I've only just seen your posts today!
I've basically been trading the FTSE every day this last few days, taking a few quid here and then always on short positions. I judge how the day is going, then when theres been a decent rally, I'll stick a short on and take small profits. Not been a bad strategy!
rod - think your first description could be right! "Not gone".....but I hope not of course!
US equities taking a right pasting again tonight :0(
rodhull-read your predictions from june - you were predicting the ftse to be at 6200 in july!
in 2003 the ftse was in the 3000's and personally i think its worse this time round and only going to get worse for the next year at least. oil has slid back from previous highs but will go up in the long run causing chaos to the shares that have recovered slightly and banks/retail/manufacturing have a fair bit further to fall.
don't you think the only way is to go short on the ftse till it is at least in the 4800's if not lower?
Not posted on here for a bit because I've been mulling over which way I think the FTSE is going!
Up until 2 days ago, I thought we had quite a bit of upside left.....but my current thoughts are that 5470 ish looks like a bit of a technical resistance level as I've seen quite a severe bounce back off from this point a couple of times now. I have not checked a chart but just observed the levels by watching each day :0)
Now wondering whether to go back to my original strategy of waiting for blips up, then shorting the FTSE again for small profs on the way down, then wait for the blip up again and so on and so forth!
We're not posting much in here at the mo are we? I guess we're all completely consfused by this market - for every one person you talk too who thinks it's bottomed and we're on the way up, there will be an opposite view that we've further down to go.
We've pulled back sharply these last coupla days from the latest rally and I agree with Rod about the sub 5000 level - I think it would take another major bank failure to go through this point, soooo......waiting... watching.... trying to guage the current trading levels at not really getting anywhere at the mo! Lol
hello guys & girls. I dont think we have seen the end yet. Problems have not been solved yet, but markets have been eased. Ive been confused also, trends are changing too fast. Consensus i can see from all credible articles that i've read is that oppurtunities are showing but capitulation is still yet to arrive. IMO we will not see a large upwards rally to 6000 until fannie & freddie saga has been sorted. It is still a daytraders market at the mo.
One thing i have found interesting in the newspapers recently is the changing demographics in UK, too many pensioners will bring us down lol! One to watch for a future uk stagnation in 10 - 20 years time.
this deflationary recession is causing demand for all goods to fall recently, even oil and gold. Although gold is seen as safe haven, the strengthening dollar has brought it down and it will also be the demise of the djia. US weakened the dollar in the past decades to make people feel artificially rich, this pushed up the djia. If you actually compare the djia in value of gold (inflation proof) or even say the british pound, the djia is hugely down overall. We are seeing a huge correction occur, especially today.
We really should use this more....I set the bloomin' thing up but I keep forgetting it's here - lol!
Anyway just checking in to give my ten pennenth as obviously the Dow, S&P and FTSE have all slid last coupla days......watching non-farm payrolls data today, thinking if the numbers are bad, the markets may freefall again and might be a good time to go long! Not sure yet as ya have to watch these markets every minute as any bit of news sways 'em.
Think the falling oil price is no longer helping the indices as folk pile out of the oil shares and also out of commodity and mining plays as they fall along with oil, so don't feel oil etc. is so much of a factor now as it was a few weeks ago :0)
all signals in the mid-term are suggesting down to me however i may be totally wrong. the line of companies expecting a government bail-out is growing further, with lehman now in the queue joining a host of others such as GM. Market is totally underestimating the pain at which the previous F&F bailout will cause, they have taken on an extra 9 trillion dollars of debt. The ball is with the asian economies. although they are also affected by the current economic woes, if they were to pull the plug on the US dollar and trasuries due to lack of confidence or even political means they would send the US into economic collapse.
What i am expecting in the next few months is for the dollar to devalue and US treasuries to weaken harshly on lack of confidence (including all fannie & freddie debt).
I do not expect to see oil to rally on a weak dollar due to demand destruction. although oil and gas prices have dropped, do not expect the energy providers to reduce the burden to the consumers which is why i believe inflation will be here to stay for a while. articles have suggested that inflation should vastly drop, but they are taking into account spot prices rather than the willingness of energy providers to reduce costs to the consumer. They will play the wholesale cost card for a long while forward.
Dont be suprised to see gold 2.0 though, i can see another bull run coming taking up with it any other valuable commodities. This will come at the expense of the DJIA which i can see going to 9000 to 10000 levels.
This is just my opinion but im currently feeling like a grizzly bear which has swayed my decision to the negative. Whatever happens there will be a breakout from the trading range we have seen in the djia and ftse since july soon enough, just be equipped for it.
It seems that US may possibly cut rates further 50/50 has been priced in, it is said they may be looking to inflate themselves out of this problem but this will only halt the pain for later on in time. From what i understand, the main reason for dollar rally in the first place was due to the fact that europe and UK economies etc were weaker than expected and was assumed that they would be cutting rates in order to shore up their economies. However since inflation looks to stay a while longer (energy providers may boycott against UK stance on energy), i would be surprised if UK or EU decides to cut rates before inflation indicators show a fall. If US were to cut rates further before the UK and EU then possibly lack of confidence may kick into the majority of people who have parked their cash into US currency and treasuries. Currently that is the area where all the smart money is flocking.
Regarding the strong dollar, it may be in US best interests to weaken it on purpose to increase export-led growth since they will perform poor on import-led growth. I am a strong believer of capitulation and believe that a strong dollar may actually be the demise of the Dow. Its actually a catch 22 at the moment, strong dollar = cheaper oil, commodities. benefit to consumer. weak dollar = gdp growth/exports. If GBP falls below 160 against USD and EUR falls below 130 against USD, it may end up as a serious disadvantage for the US.
There was a good report on CNBC regarding technicals on S&P 500 which probably tracks the same as most global indices. Bottom support is at 1200, if it was to test and break through this then it is possible it could go to anywhere between 1000 - 1100. Possibly something may spur it on? Such as lehman if it doesnt get taken over and may force nationalisation hand? we'll see
numerous articles flying round that henk paulson is begging the banks to take out lehman. This will not be good for the opening on monday. People would think that there would be worth in lehman, even if it is bought at 0p. But it seems many banks do not even want to touch it. Could we see a retest of July lows?, and a large breakout downwards if a deal fails to capitalise by sunday end? Watch the asian markets as that will be the first indicator.
hi guys long time no see! been doing technical research recently, october 22nd seems to be the date. If we make a high on oct 22nd we could be in a bear market till 2011. if we make a low then it is possibly the end of the bear market. so dont get sucked in if there is a rally to 11k on the dow!
Interesting walk through the last few months, hard to believe you guys were talking about going long with the Dow at 11,000 and winning, also the winning trades were getting bigger as the indices came down, guess the volatility has shot through the roof these days!
Are you guys still trading the indices? I have had a go but am struggling with the big stop losses that you seem to need these days, always seem to get stopped out before the trade gets going if they are too close. Do you guys have any tips on how you decide where to place them?
Also, are you mainly trying to predict a reversal in the trend or are you getting on when it seems to be in full flight.
Like you rightly say volatility has shot through the roof lately - my advice is that it's not the right time to get into trading the indices unless you have been following them for at least 2 months solid (preferably much longer........) - you really need to understand what makes the markets shift and these last few weeks have proved very difficult...
Excuse me if I'm teaching granny to suck eggs (I don't know your experience in these matters) but watch the Citigroup story and the the big 3 US automakers story as these are real market movers at the moment. In my view, Paulson caused the last market slide as he changed the terms of the TARP and the Obama phenomenon created a little rally at the end of last week as he announced a favourable replacement treasury secretary. The markets may bounce a little more when he announces his whole economic team but watch the Citigroup and US Automaker spokes in the ironworks and the jobless claims........they were bad last week and even though folk reckon these markets have this doom priced in, I'm still not so sure.
When the markets have been bouncing along the bottom for some time and it stops reacting to bad news and the banks begin lending againing, I would view that as a safe time to go long but it's all about entry levels and you need to watch the markets everyday to accertain those!
As for me - I'm on the sidelines at the moment for all the reasons above! Suggest others do the same :0)
Didelo , good to talk about the ftse , etc , here. I am actually just off to bed but will get back later today. Read through some of these posts , most if not all posters posting here are experienced and helpful.
AndyDB - I do think that global indices have recently come off their lows in reaction to world wide support to prevent a meltdown. This could be an adjustment by the bulls to correct a sell off in light of having a regained confidence in such global tactics or a classic bear rally. Either way , the market is looking for direction and at the moment showing little signs of a further spurt and in many ways and profit taking from the recent rally is evident.
With reference to the UK joining the Euro that was mentioned , with sterlings sell off and overal weakness , I consider that the UK not joining the Euro would have more of a negative impact on the FTSE than joining.
I remind myself that we are not a manufacturing powerhouse , not a global exporting wonder and remain an Island largely reliant upon imports.
Most FTSE 100 companies have divisions that trade in dollars and euros and as our national structure is more often than not governed by our European membership , it would make life easier to throw in the towel and take up the currency , especially as we are at an all sterling time low with little ability to export higher volumes due to a slowdown in the economy and lack of ability to do anything about it.
The interesting thing is whether or not the UK would be accepted ... my understanding is that to adopt the Euro , national debt should not exceed 3 x GDP and my understanding is that with recent events we have exceeded that and are likely to hit double this or even 7 x GDP , but as I am no specialist in such matters , I am sure that this is only 1 method and we may get 'browny' points for being so important to europe in other ways.
Didedo ,you have pretty much answered your own question.
The Dow Jones has a significant pull on the markets in general and sectors within. For example , the initial positive vote the other day re the US car industry bailout lifted index's globaly and sectors within more so and more so again , individual stocks most likely effected. Other associated sectors such as car parts and oil also lifted. When the senate said no , down they all came like a stack of bricks , the index's , sectors within , individual equities and associated car parts and oil. Shares that are dual listed also follow on , its like a clock and once you are in its circle it becomes very clear. Trading sharply at hours that the markets decide they want to change is where ops arise. I get alerted when the markets are shifting out of pattern and tend to leave it alone when its stable. The Asian markets may tumble during the night and these , if there are factors within that effect other global economies , will drag down futures elsewhere. I do not tend to hold stocks as a rule as it does not interest me. If someone said , as is often the case , for example Lloyds is over sold and will be worth x in days , months , years down the line , it simply does not interest me. Lloyds , for example , is worth x today and that is that to me. I will intraday trade a stock at a reasonably high volume if I feel it is relatively safe to do so and may hold on overnight or for a few days if the trend is maintained. Sometimes I get wrong footed and I will trade the position until in profit and then close. With financials , I will always close the same day , even if at a loss. I mainly traded financials when you could both long and short , as it gave me an ability to hedge a position on short term weakness , etc , and I was very good at it. When the shorting ban came in , I had to look at other sides of trading that I was doing OK at but also enjoyed. I sooner be out than in so to speak and be able to trade , in whatever direction and sometimes both if I am unsure , and step in and step out when I feel comfortable to do so. I will happily trade , almost fully now by spread bet if available, several index's many times a day. If you are tuned in and able to do so without distraction it is not anywhere as near as risky as some investments or investors make out, but it takes time so tread gently , but the tools are there to be used and time should always be on your side.
FTSE will drop off circa 85 points on Friday- watch this space- will then track down on Monday until luch - finshing day slightly up
Happy New Year to All!
Anyone thinking of shorting the FTSE soon?? I am wondering how high the usual new year optimism will take the FTSE/DOW etc. before theres a wobble back down a bit........4650 looks a level to watch - if we get through that with any vigour, I'll wait a bit before shorting, but depending on news flow etc. etc., I may short the FTSE soon - not sure yet!
I think the coppper price is lifting the miners and the oilers are getting lifted due to the Gaza and Russia/Gazprom issues and as these are a big portion of the FTSE we are seeing a lift. Also seeing Industrials put on some meat and the Retailers following todays Deb and Next updates, but I don't think this optimism can last.......
Any views out there?
well I'll talk to myself - lol! Was right in my views that the FTSE rise could not last...........now wondering whether to go long at some point but not sure where this downward flow will end..........sub 4200.....???lower??
Anybody else here? Wheres the usual indices crowd??