Wow, looks like FTSE 100 sliding into 5700s again........?Anybody shorting at this level or going long? Grateful for views .
Me again! Looks like I was right - FTSE at 5793...... where will this go from here?
well looks like we're in freefall mode ;0( Didn't put a short on as I was not sure which way things would go today!
TandH, the markets in caos at the moment, I think. Personally the overview of the market I think is for it to test new lows, but can't guarantee anything as I would be rich if it was that easy. As the FTSE is not to far from it's last low, I have decided to go long and then scalp with shorts to cover the long positions if the FTSE falls further. If it will work I'm not sure, but hope it does. I've lost a good bit over the last month on stocks. With indices I've made some money, but lost it all and more due to my equities. So I've finished equities and will just do the indices now as they are much easier to daytrade than stocks and have a nice tight spread.
I think you might be right and I'm pondering going long on the FTSE today too perhaps on a July future, in case theres a bit of downside before it turns back up.... Not gone in yet though - I do ponder for rather a long time!
hey rodhull - glad you've joined us, we're a gang of three now lol!
Yep I've got a long on a FTSE future at the mo, not mega quids in, but quids in :0)
Well done rod! Bloomin' oil speculators spoiled the the US rally by close ;0( Anyway, still left my FTSE long on as it's a future contract....we'll see what Asia Japan and all do tonight.
closed FTSE long for 28 points gain after about first 3 minutes of trading as a bit unsure how today will go what with the tanker drivers strike etc. etc. If oil starts to sky rocket again, I think stocks will take a hit, plus I'm out all this morning so don't like not being around when I'm playing the indices! :0)
Hiya all , well done TandH for setting this up. I will not post unless I feel that there is anything relevant... thought that the new rules of declaring shorts over 0.25% might have some interesting results. Whilst not comming into force until next Friday , that gives 4 days for institutions , hedge funds , big players , to get their house in order. The reason why I feel this to be relevant is that I would not be surprised if many large investors hedge their long term positions and whilst this is a natural undertaking to do so in my book , it could be very embarrassing to some , especially if they are shorting their own stock , influence board decisions, say one thing and do another , invest in stock for others , ie. pensions and then short and not declare those related positions that could cause a few raised eyebrows at shareholder meetings , etc.. it will , imo , change investment practice within the ftse 100 at the top end and as such , in my book , will only assist in lifting the ftse 100 in the short term as a result.
rodhull - jammy! I'm bloomin' short on the FTSE at 5820 (Aug Future though). Can't understand why our market is rallying following the US futures when our own CPI inflation data was dreadful!
Hi Mark Expat! Sorry, only just seen your post - lol!
rodhull - me too. I'm tending to just spread bet the FTSE at the moment. It's been a strange day today! As you know I placed a short at 5820 and saw it drift to a 125 point loss at one point today but now it's back to a 55 point loss and I'm leaving it there as it's an August future.
Got an idea though! I'm wondering about placing a small long too at a similar level to the short (but in a seperate bet obviously!). My idea is to catch profits as the FTSE swings either way. For example, if the long is in profit, I might take the cash and leave the short running......if the market drops back, take profits on the short!
Errrr it all sounds far too simple of course, but I might try something like this out.......
agree rod. Not sure where the market will go tomorrow so at least these two best give me more thinking time. i.e. if the market has a strong start, I might close the short or vice versa.
Thank goodness for FTSE shorts! Made a 40 point gain on my short today :0) Would you believe I missed about a 40 point gain yesterday as I came out of the FTSE short with just a 6 point gain, thinking it was gonna go up!!! Arghhh!
Anyway, just got the Sept Future Long on now - only a tiny bet with far away stop loss so I can forget about it for now....Looking for the next opportunity to pop the short back on!
Hope you took your profs Rod when the FTSE went down first early today :0)
I stayed on the sidelines as I really wasn't sure....I was going to place a short late today at about the same level as you did but at that time the US seemed to be doing OK. Now their market has closed flat - I guess we're stuck waiting for the FED decision or at least that's what the US market is waiting for....and forever watching oil!!!
Anyway, revisiting this tomorrow.
Errr no! I didn't get a short on!
Looks like your timing was perfect today. Not sure the slide will continue though as there seemed to be resistance around that 5585 ish mark? Although having just said that, I can see the US futures are now pulling us down.
Only think I have a different opinion to you on is oil - I believe oil is killing these markets and therefore if the oil price came crashing back down, I think the FTSE would go up :0)
just closed my latest short (ftse) at 5558 for 94 points! Not sure if I should have left it a bit longer but I'm thinking, surely we can't slit our throats for much longer???? Anyway, waiting for a little lift then back in a short again.
Still got the weeny long on ;0(............
hi rodhull. oil up 314 now. ftse and dow actually defying oil a little today considering they usually move more on oil sentiment. I just have a hunch feeling that ftse and dow will fall alot further when dow opens after 3pm. whats your feeling?
Thanks heavens for FTSE short hedge positions on days like this..........
Hi TandH at what level do you think the run on ftse 100 will end. i believe support is at 5350. If it breaks 5350 then anything is possible. We have to remember though shell, bp,hsbc, gsk, rio tinto, anglo american,bg group, bats are 9 of the 10 most capitalized shares in the ftse 100 which have not been affected really by the downturn. which makes me think all the others esp banks & retail and any others that use oil have been seriously killed already and if they are killed even more then then they pose too much of an oppurtunity. We know now that there is a large shift in weighting (capitalization) in stocks e.g bp being worth 108 bill whereas lloy only being worth 16bill. That wealth will need to be distributed back over time, the ftse is too uneven at the moment. BP, shell etc are worth too much whereas others are worth too less! back to the days where we have to light a candle lol.
looks like ECB will increase rates hence oil up, dow down, ftse down. People think ECB is doing the wrong thing but Ben is the stupid one cutting interest rates to save the banks when he should let them fail. He didnt take the example from Japan and now they are in 20 year stagflation. Possible it could happen to US because of debt burden. What my hunch is now is the wider the discrepency is between ECB and FOMC rates, the larger falls in the dow hence the ftse will follow. Until FED plans to raise rates we wont see any strengthening of the dollar which means there will be continued speculation in oil meaning he is putting the DOW in a worser position. So until we see dollar strengthened, oil wont come down. He has a big decision to make, it would be best for him to allow the economy to fail in order to start the next cycle by raising interest rates rather than increasing the debt burden on the economy by throwing more cash at already failed banks causing a long tiring stagflation.