If you want to talk about Oil , this is the place to do it.
are oil prices going to start going up again soon....will they cut supply so that they ( oil suppliers) can increase the prices...and why is oil price dropping when inflation is high
Just in case this gets talked off the UEN board, I thought I best also add in here
Remember you posted this on Tuesday..."electricwarrior was definately a good source of info back on Dec 2nd and 3rd - he definately deserves a pressie from the investors here"....I pushed this share on Monday due to info received....seems they coincide with URALSIB FINANCE acquiring/disposing of shares, or is that too obvious
4 Dec 2008 Uralsib acquired 6.4 mill shares to bring their holding up to 9.79 million.
By 11 Dec 2008 they had reduced holding to 8.415 million.
On 16 Dec they disposed of 4.9 million UEN shares through Hannover, but still hold 2.71 million.
They will be used (IMO) to play with the price between now and next July. Time will tell.
I guess this is directed mainly at Chart Trader 7 or Mark Expat but any one else's input would be appreciated. Following OPEC meetings and Russia's comments that it has reduced production (before OPEC mtg)and the lack of impact their reduction has had on the price of oil do you think that oil will drop to $25-$30 per barrel (re Bloomberg report). I noted that the price of oil was mooted as one of the reasons the economy in UK may pick up Q3 next year(Newsnight) when the impact of the lower price has filtered through to the economy ie. retail prices, fuel, energy costs etc. Any views?
I’m actively, shorting most of the market right now, where-ever possible!
[I had a chat with M-E the other day where I noted: where I was long and short, but I can’t remember where, right now! – It was a high-tech company but I wouldn’t put my pocket money there!]
If you catch some of my postings on the “Main Menu” you’ll see my thoughts.
I’m actually LONG on oil, some pharmaceuticals, “selective” miners, nickel, gold etc.
…………and SHORT on ……….hmmmmm just about everything else [well not quite]
Hold off until you are sure!
I’ll, perhaps catch you on the individual boards
PS Things will really quieten soon, for the hols, but still, as always, money to be made. Take care!!!
Oil is a cartel - 'A combination of independent business organizations formed to regulate production, pricing, and marketing of goods by the members.'
It would seem that global politicians , whilst they like their cut ,want to put the lid on runaway oil prices.
The worlds biggest business is oil. Oilers will have to , in my book , get used to declining demand , lower their expectations and change how they operate their gravy train.
Blue , the share is SNR , Senior.
a general feed if you not have it , the article is of no value , as such , but oilvoice has some interesting news.
an interesting general article that highlights the problems that oilers could face should both decline and price continue to weaken.
Does anyone here have any experience in trading the ETF Epic CRUD?
Global recession fears batter oil price
Robert Lea, Evening Standard
23 December 2008, 10:52am
The oil price is poised to end the year at barely a third of where it was at the start of 2008 and registering an extraordinary 75% crash from its all-time peak in high summer.
Crude was on the wane again today amid latest news of slumping Asian demand and the gloom of forecasts of a deep global recession in 2009.
The price of oil in New York traded down 57 cents at $39.34 a barrel against the record $147.27 set in early July and a price of about $98 a year ago.
Brent crude traded in London was priced at $40.80, down 65 cents from yesterday. Weighing heavily on oil was downbeat economic snapshots from around the world.
Not the least of these is a final revision of US gross domestic product statistics later today which is expected to show how deep in trouble the US economy is.
Investors have also been rattled by a sharp decline in exports from Japan, the biggest Asian economy, as well as by a big reduction in imports of crude.
Oil imports in South Korea are also sharply down.
In addition, the fifth interest-rate cut by China in recent months was not seen as a positive financial stimulus for the world's largest emerging economy, and highlighted fears that the Beijing government is overseeing a slowdown in the march of the dragon economy.
While the Saudi Arabia-led cartel of major producers has said that it will cut demand by up to 5% to counter the collapse in the demand, the market is now largely ignoring any attempts to put a false floor under the cratering price of oil.
Hi Mark. No doubt you picked up on Russia's threat to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine and therefore Europe this winter which may cause a hike on gas prices. Thanks for your interesting posts. Best wishes to you and yours for Christmas and the New Year *<(:o)}.
Hi Dededo , happy xmas and a prosperous New Year to you and yours to. It would look as if Putin sees gas as saviour of the Russian economy
A stronger gas cartel would surely equal stronger gas prices as I understand that folk do not like to go to Russia just to sample the vodka.
Natural Gas for January '09 delivery is currently $57.11 to sell $57.56 to buy via IG Markets and via TD Waterhouse Spread Bet $57.46 to sell $57.94 to buy but this is for February '09.
I need to look into whether or not there are other methods of trading gas as there must be better ways as this could be one of the main rescources to trade.
Very sad to say , but when bombs fall out of the sky over any part of the middle east , the price of oil will surge.
Hi Mark, Happy New Year. Not for some though eh? See gas supply problems from Russia via Ukraine continue (another cold winter for them). As you posted gas prices will rise. Did you see CT7's post re oil on his board? Good post I thought..what's your view? Same principle applies to gas ie. finite resource needed by all which even if it does drop in price has to rise ultimately.
Gas price hit a recent high(Tues) and then "softened" due to milder weather on Wednesday(reuters). Now that supply via Ukraine cut-off by Russia will prices go up again?
Happy New Year to you to Didedo.
My view on oil for this year remains factual in that the overal trend of oil price will be governed by demand and as demand continues to fall that any short term recovery will only be bought about by potential supply concerns either by conflict or restriction via the likes of OPEC and/or other political pressures via the turning down of the taps , and investment speculation.
To think that oil could be stored in leased tankers at sea to prevent it being sold at current market prices would certainly add to the arguement that some serious traders expect or would like to think that the price of oil will go up by some large percentage , but to me further demonstrates
continued oversupply and weakening demand.
The last round of production restrictions was not modest and cracks were certainly becoming evident amongst members as to how far some within OPEC will go to support the price of oil ....it simply comes down to supply and demand and there is evidently an over supply to meet current demand with reserves and exploration in place.
Future demand is obviously tied into the recovery of global economies and again , it depends on which side of the fence you sit as to how you see these recoveries fall into place.
My personal view , is that we are going to see a period of long drawn out global contraction.
The reason why I say this is that we have had long periods of sustained growth with only very short relative contraction periods , all of which remained inflationary in the UK.
We have not , in the UK , seen deflation since the end of WWII and this , in my book , is not sustainable given our current economic and financial health backdrop.
A period of deflation could very well be on the cards towards the end of this year and should this deflationary period arrive , the length of its duration and how far it spirals will dictate how long it will take for economies to recover as I believe that , should it arrive , that deflation will not just hit the UK.
I have never experienced deflation , and unless you were born in the 1930's , no adult in the UK would have. All I know is that it is feared by some and more by others the longer it remains.
There is no doubt in my mind that whilst we face such prevailing winds that there is no reason for oil to recover aside from conflict or manipulation because the end user will not be demanding it in the volumes the oil industry has been used to.
This does not mean though that oil is not attractive to trade when it is being supported for whatever reason or on its return to weakness but trading short term trends is not , as you are well aware , a long term investment strategy.
Whilst the infrastructure of gas delivery into Europe is reliant upon the likes of Russia , again , in time , such reliance will dwindle as new gas fields are developed and more dependable pipelines are scourced.
So , the same applies to gas as with oil. If Russia wants to flex its arm to get a better deal and manipulate in whatever way it sees fit , then yes , this will efect the price of gas in the same way as such factors effect the price of oil.
What will happen to the price of such energy resources medium term ie. 1-3 years will remain in how the world recovers but longer term , take note of this.
As of January 2009, the world's population is estimated to be about 6.7 billion and on its current growth trajectory, is expected to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2042.
Whilst , imo , I think we can only just manage with what we have on our planet now , the amount of energy and food needed to meet such a population increase demand alone , would certainly bode well for long term future prices if nothing else is viably scourced.
I think the comment on finite resource has serious validation and hope that Gas has abundant reserves as it is much cleaner and easier to distribute than oil. I also hope that the production of hydrogen gas by the breaking down the elements of water and other forms of energy being put to use today will also , hopefully ,all mature and come into play over the next few decades.
input always needed ... keep posting.
I agree with pretty much most of your post and indeed nearly posted the same re supply/demand (I type a lot but don't actually post..a good tool I learned some time ago with company EMail).
I heard the word depression re the car industry used for the first time today (radio4) and they emphasised they meant a depressed industry not a recessed one. (They said that Britain is ill equipped to deal with a depression which could hit Britain far harder than it did in the 30s). In the real world, people I know are finding it very hard indeed and those that have companies are relying on their cash to get through. If PB's wheelbarrow scenario plays out then it will be dire indeed.
Re oil/gas they are a finite resource and I agree with you regarding manipulation re supply/demand...there is so much manipulation these days. I like CT7's approach on oil; it made sense to a numptie like me! (By the way I'm a numptie and proud of it! I was once married to someone with a mensa IQ -enough said).
If the next few months throw us into a deeper recession/depression then everything will freefall again (stating the obvious and being proud of it). I see posts saying this is more or less the bottom but I believe there is more to come yet(fjp73's opinions would be good here as he saw it coming and it nearly cost him his job..he reminds me of a younger PB..and would be another good source/analyser as to when the upside is due).
Re alternative energy sources if there are any scientists on here please explain why we are still running cars on technonolgy that is over 100 years old. Surely the time for hydrogen cars is now. I'm an avid New Scientist reader and await the restart of the LHC at Cern. Bring it on; lets find some alternatives.
Re gas reserves I think I saw the UK relies on 5% of it's energy resources from Russia and as such does not have weeks of reserves..rather days. Germany etc have weeks of reserves but I think they are more dependent on the Ukraine pipeline.
I post on SSE sometimes but not many frequent those boards much! Would you be interested in opening a discussion on another board re alternative energy, viability of wind farms, green power etc? I know CT7 thinks that's the future..any takers? Anyone know for example who is looking to develop hydrogen outlets? I know Mercedes are launching their hydrogen cars in the next few years so they must be sourcing/developing outlet/ suppliers.
One thing's for sure for the conspiracy theorists this current situation is certainly weening us off oil isn't it? Global warmimg could be behind us or at least deflected for now. On another off-topic note have you heard of Moore's Law? It says that by 2017 microprocessor circuits cannot get any smaller without burning out and that unless we switch to carbon/gas/liquid circuits there will be another economic slow down! (Just to cheer you up!!)
Hi Mark, article in FT: Golman Sachs say the inventory of oil stocks in the developed world will continue to rise reaching their highest levels for a decade in the next two months pushing prices towards the investment bank's target of $30 per barrel for the first quarter of 2009. Goldman reiterated it's forecast for oil to reach $65 by the end of 2009.