Tower Resources #TRP, Hardman & Co and Edison speak at London South East’s Oil & Gas event Watch Now
Friday, 24th January 2020 13:52 - by Malcy
WTI $55.59 -$1.15, Brent $62.04 -$1.17, Diff -$6.45 -2c, NG $1.93 +2c
The short week will end down as a combination of factors identified yesterday remain in place. The only addition to those facts were the overnight EIA inventory numbers where against the API numbers reported an albeit modest draw overall and at Cushing. Even products were mixed as gasoline built by 1.7m bbls but distillates drew by 1.2m whilst refinery utilisation fell by 1.7% to 90.15%, at last you cry.
Well,this takes some analysing as CERP announces that it has completed interpretation from the Lower Cruse portion of the current Saffron well, its primary target. Reading the RNS the only certainty is that the company needs to test this as well as the other targets before making comments of a bullish nature.
Whilst this is clearly a holding announcement and to me the management are clearly, and with correct responsibility, being conservative here there would have been hell to pay if they had gone the other way. With the testing kit ready to go shareholders havent got long to wait, I wouldnt be short of this one…
At first glance this looks very much like a profit warning, the revenue figure is undoubtedly disappointing at £6m (£8m) as is the EBITDA number at £0.6m – £0.8m (£1.1m). The bad news is spearheaded by the lumpy nature of the contracts which again overran the year end, they must learn to close off these contracts before they cause too much grief.
We also know that they are transferring slowly to a ‘full and diverse sales pipeline’ which opens up new ‘new clients in new regions’ and this month have already won a new ‘Super Major Globe Customer’, all of which are going in the right direction.
Underlying there are other positives, cash grew as did the order book whilst costs continue to fall, a very Getech thing indeed. Finally my initial thought that margins must have suffered are not proven, they have been ‘at least maintained’ at c.47% which bodes well for the company. For a high quality business this is indeed a warning but if taken heed of the shares are probably too low.
Sundry news this week for UK quoted onshore players has been good, starting with the Wressle oilfield planning overturn the news should, when underway in around six months time give 150 b/d for Egdon and 137.5 b/d from Union Jack. The field has attractive economics and both companies will at long last celebrate the return of Wressle after what has been local Government incompetence of groundbreaking scale. BTW for UJO holders its surely not long before action at West newton, a proper jewel in its crown, along with Reabold Resources. Meanwhile Egdon has been busy elsewhere too as they announce a farm-in agreement with Shell on licences P1929 and P2304 pertaining to the Resolution and Endeavour gas discoveries, with a carry Egdon get paid and get to keep 30%, nice work.
Over at IGas Energy the news from Wressle must have gone down well as the Ellesmere Port appeal is awaiting the Secretary of State’s decision. National energy policy should indicate that emissions are not per se objected to nor will a net zero carbon economy be hydrocarbon free. That makes interesting reading as does the following part of the policy. ‘With that background and given the continuing role of fossil fuels in providing for UK energy needs during the transition to a low carbon economy, the proposed extraction of hydrocarbons is consistent with national energy policy’.
It was a good week for UK onshore, not before time…
The Writer's views are their own, not a representation of London South East's. No advice is inferred or given. If you require financial advice, please seek an Independent Financial Adviser.