Bunzl Share Price (BNZL)

Another rec from me, I particularly liked the point that it'll outlive the orange moron, that is also my stance too and see this price as a gift for anyone looking long term.

Velo, that was a superb post, and I'm surprised that no-one else has given it a rec.

Like you I've been following the share for a while, and it has always seemed to me that it was oversold last April. I bought 400 today - less than I normally buy for a new addition to my SIPP, but I can top up later when funds permit. Having bought at £23.22, I'm pleased to see that that share price didn't promptly drop 2% by the close.

I too, have had a long interest in Bunzl, without ever placing it on a watch list. However, before choosing my moment to invest there are a few caveats that concern me.

First off, the massive one-day drop in April as a direct result of the profit warning within the trading update, means that I don’t personally expect sustained bullish performance visible in the SP until after next year’s full year trading results, circa spring ‘26.

Any apparent SP break-out’s this year, I suspect will come be viewed as ‘unreliable’ and eventually will be reigned in.

In the meantime investors making partial tranche top-up’s at perceived ultra lows is okay for committed long term holders - but as an investor yet to make an initial holding in Bunzl, I am in no hurry to buy before next week’s trading update. And might prefer from late summer /autumn lows, onwards, instead.

Before the April profit warning, Revenue and Net profit guidance for ‘25 was £12.1b Revenue & £660m Net Profit.

After the profit warning, market guidance was downgraded to £11.746b Revenue & £570m Net Profit.

As the adjusted market guidance shows Revenue only a slight tad under last year’s revenue and net profit greater than last year’s, one might think that all will be well - if achieved.

The only thing is, North America was mentioned in the profit warning as of particular concern in contributing to the downgrade and makes Bunzl liable to be considered ‘at risk’ from the sociopathic mad orange man in the US, and thus the market has yet to agree that companies with significant reliance on contribution from their US exposure, are not out of the woods. And even if trading meets the lower guidance, there are concerns of will the SP languish? - Due to the US anti-competitive restrictive tariff influence.

However, longer term, Bunzl will outlive the orange man, so playing for the long game I’m only going to (try) and buy the v deep dips only (easier said than done) and not expect some sustained SP progress until after spring next year.

Not a forecast; just a personal opinion :)

PS. Director buys: Note the CEO made the largest buy of all directors by a considerable margin of £1.1m - on the day of the profit warning trading update.

- Would have be very impressive but for the fact he (the CEO no less!) sells a week later, three quarters of that buy - (and at a 2p lower SP price, therefore suffering a small loss) but nonetheless he sold £858,000 worth, after just 6 days!

Since April there have been 5 director sells since the profit warning - two in 6 figures. The others mostly in 5 figures.

Personally, not convinced anything overtly positive can be read in to the directors share transactions.

Reentered BNZL earlier this week, lots to like about this business, follow the director buys. Another £100,000 bought by CFO / persons known to them today? Promising confidence in future growth. DYOR

Lots of directors buys this year