Westminster Group Share Price (WSG)

Yes I did state initial revs, they will be more than $10mill in first year.

Peter says it will be very profitable from day 1. So with opex and capex initial year or so margins might be 25-30% but as the operation is geared the more passenger revs goes straight to bottom line and margins go towards other MSCs at 50%+

DrMaccers,

I think if you read the DRC RNS its $10m revenues in the first year. Not profit.

So £8m revenues.

Staff to pay, kit to instal, office space required, training academy to fund. x how many airports.

Will it be project based finance with presumably a high interest rate to reflect the risk or will it be another placing or combination of both

If they get no other new business and just run this DRC deal, the future is likely to be fantastic.

Here is a balanced assessment

Risks first...

DRC war - there is a spot of trouble around Goma with Rwanda but DRC is the size of Europe. A large scale war would clearly not be good

Global pandemic or local epidemic - clearly a Covid mark 2 would not be good for air travel or a more localised one. There was Ebola in 2018 but that was isolated to a small eastern region away from the big airport.

Some sort of coup - If the DRC contract is unilaterally stopped there is provision for international arbitration to impost 5 years revs as payment

Positives

The contract is now signed and it is starting, nothing is stopping that

Revs are paid by international airlines not DRC gov

The initial $10mill in first year revs comes from an historic embarking passenger number of 400k. This is very likely to be higher now and will certainly be higher going forward. Qatar have started flights, Air France are increasing, BA will start post next airport audit in Nov. Dubai etc are looking to start routes. The international passenger growth will be huge and in line with other african countries. As the contract is geared, the more passengers embark, this goes straight to the bottom line as the costs don't increase

Cargo screening will be coming after the international passengers have been sorted. DRC can't scan its own cargo leaving adding huge cost and time.

Domestic pax numbers are x2-3 that off international pax which should lead to a doubling of the international revs.

All in all, after 2-3 years with international growth, cargo screening and domestic travel, the contract will be paying $25mill in revs with say even 50% margins to give $12.5mill or £10mill profit.

£10mill profit on a PE of 10 is a 10 bagger from here. How nice.

There are risks but the reward is huge. No one is making anyone buy and frankly the weird negative ex holders here need some medical attention but ive a large bet and im happy to wait for the numbers to come in and the value to be attached.

One has to choose the right moment to invest. It looks like they are getting things right now. Not promising £1 but there is genuine promise here of sp recovery. Crucially the contract was signed publicly and is in US dollars . No back room deals. I know that representatives of UK Export Finance were at the signing. Government backing always takes time but looks like it could be on the table. The company has managed finances well recently with £.85 million in the bank and so it can start the process of getting the infrastructure in place right away.

The only experience this company has it taking the sp from nearly a pound to one penny. its going no where