Market is pricing in risk imo18 Apr 2024 12:57
In my opinion, the market wasn’t previously pricing much risk into this stock.
It was on a very posting trajectory, but now we’re seeing trading ‘falling below expectations’, so the reality is that we’re seeing a decline in profit margins, due to:
• A rise in the cost of wages (surely they were aware of this beforehand though?)
• Discounts on shoes (which implies an a lack of pricing power and a lack of demand - is the competition increasing?)
• A rise in container shipping costs
• Increases in property costs, as they renovate the existing portfolio, close existing stores and open new stores (surely this is going to harm the bottom line for the next few years?)
Then in the near future, we may see the pension deficit come back with a vengeance if interest rates start declining. That would also result in many consumers having more disposable income, which is bad news for budget retailers.
All things considered, I think a lot of investors will be looking to cash in on their investments here (well done by the way, especially to those who bought in a few years ago), whilst others decide that the outlook is too bleak/risky for them.
If this was cheaper (£1.50 or below), it would really start appealing to me, but I think it’s a bit of a coin toss for the foreseeable future. Don’t get me wrong, I don’t see bankruptcy as a risk, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the share price falls significantly over the coming months and years, especially if the NYSE experiences a correction/crash
All in my honest opinion. Do your own research.