Summary from today18 Mar 2024 14:26
Summary:
* Production rates steady but low and also attracting a lower commodity price.
* sidetrack at Sabria W-1 not for at least 6 months (sometime in Q4 maybe)
- Long lead items on order and costing less than previous highs
- Drill rigs difficult to get in Tunisia and needs to be the right type. Could delay it further (remember last time!)
* Sabria N-2, 55% partner is not receptive to any further work. Unlikely to happen this year as they want progress on pumps which is waiting on W-1 working with end of year timescale. They claim to be in discussion on this well but looks a complete non starter at present.
* Moftinu has at least a couple of years life left.
* Rates being kept low due to low commodity price and excessive tax regime in Romania.
* Did mention that they own the gas plant ($7.5m) and it can be moved.
* No plans to explore...
I can understand the reduction in production rates in Romania while the prices are low and taxation is high. But to not be planning a drill 9-12 months down the line because of this does seem short sighted. The last 3 drills have all failed to produce (commercially) in Romania. If there was to be a peak in prices or a change in fiscal regime then presently SENX are in no position to take advantage of it. It would take them 12-18 months to have anything in place on a success case. And by then they would have probably missed a lot of the benefit. They don't seem to be very proactive on this front.
The Tunisian assets could be huge but this should have taken off last year. Now it will be 2025 before any increased benefit from them.
For now the production will pay the bills and their inflated wages. However as an investment case it is not looking to rosy for the coming year.
Hopefully people will use there votes wisely again at the AGM to prevent this board from having any free reign. And possibly even see some being voted off.
Not sure today warrants a 10% drop based on the assets but that's the market for you.