Gulf Keystone Petroleum Share Price (GKP)

"got an inside line into those high level iranian conversations have we dumgrano?"

Andy1022, I do not think Belgrano needs to have inside knowledge of the Iranian regime - you can get that from reading the informed comments of expert commentators on Iran - former British ambassadors/charge d'affaires, specialists at our universities that have decent Persian Studies departments (Oxford, St Andrews, Exeter, Durham, SOAS, etc.) and from Iranian specialists working at think-tanks that advise Western governments: Carnegie Endowment, RUSI, etc.

The best theories about the behaviour of the Iranian regime are the ones that join up the most dots. Common sense tells you the regime is brutal, is concerned about its legitimacy being undermined, is dependent on exploiting difference with the West to unite its people and is hellbent on projecting power throughout the region in preference to lifting the living standards of its citizens. It also invokes religion to bolster the power of the government. The regime is stable until it collapses, and it is probably foolish to try to predict when that will be.

Suffice it to say, the regime is intent on eradicating Western influence on its citizens (does not want to compete with seemingly more attractive value systems) so it will spend its vast natural resource wealth, on among other things, buying Iraqi politicians to try to get rid of us out of the Middle East altogether. Belgrano's posts are spot on.

Pepe Escobar sounds like a conspiracy theorist claiming Israel launched a plane carrying an atomic bomb that was shot out the sky by the Russians before it reached Iran (Aliens built the pyramids and conveniently left no trace and all that stuff). Israel's interest in retaliation on the Isfahan region was probably designed to give the Iranian regime a reality check about Israel's capabilities without escalating the conflict, a small enough retaliation not to rile Israel's allies who had urged restraint.

Although I cannot stand Netanyahu (Sarkozy called him a liar, which sounds right), I have no problem with them attacking Iran's consulate in Damascus to kill one of the people orchestrating trouble throughout the Middle East. John Bolton seems to me to be one of the few Americans who gets Iran right, and I have lived and worked in Iran. I think Belgrano's posts are excellent. Also Investrat's posts demonstrate more realism about the region than anyone else's. JMV.

@nobull,

don't take it personally, it's only business.

The central government is interested only in re-establishing their rights in KRI as sovereign authority, with SOMO in charge of all external sales and marketing of crude oil & derivatives.

IMO it's going to get even messier, with the KRG trying to wriggle out of their payment obligations.

'While there is no defined timeline, we continue to actively engage with government stakeholders to secure a solution to unlock significant value for all stakeholders.”

Roll out the barrel, we'll have a barrel of fun!

Biscuit barrel, that is.

Well it could be worse.

Although its not exports starting, these actual words from the report are highly encouraging for us investors. please read below.

Local sales volumes have rebounded since the beginning of 2024, with year to date gross average sales of c.33,300 bopd and March to date sales of c.43,000 bopd. We are more than covering our monthly expenditures and have significantly reduced accounts payable, with all invoices now current. Free cash flow from current robust local sales demand is being used to further improve our liquidity position. Looking ahead, we remain resilient with upside potential from the restart of exports and normalisation of payments. While there is no defined timeline, we continue to actively engage with government stakeholders to secure a solution to unlock significant value for all stakeholders.”

21 March 2024

"Not all KRI produced crude will find its way into the export pipeline"

That may be true, but there comes a point where the actions of the FGI against us amount to creeping expropriation, something we ought to have some legal protection against; otherwise, we would not invest there.