Compelling BUY26 Jul 2023 09:54
I do think the market has already priced in what was published this morning.
The outlook has a lot of green shoots !
Gresham Technologies (GHT.L, mkt cap: £119m, corporate): Interims - Enviable contracted visibility. H1 organic revenue growth of 5% y/y (cc.), driven by continued positive momentum in Clareti revenues (+11% y/y). 5 new Clareti contract wins alongside 16 upgrades, have all contributed to strong top-line growth, with performance also underpinned by a NRR of 103% (+1pp h/h). Cash adj EBITDA was £1.7m (H1’22: £1.8m), with net cash of £3.8m (H1’22: £6.3m). The key highlight is contracted forward-looking revenue visibility of 95%/FY’23e (at Jun’23), leaving an undemanding c£2m revenue to find in H2. Even given macro turbulence and rapid base rate rises which drove major disruption in HTM bond book values and subsequently across global financial services institutions (GHT’s core market), GHT’s market-leading proposition continues to capture healthy demand and “a strong pipeline of opportunities”. Rapid and accurate reconciliation software becomes even more critical in our view, with cadence of deals having potential to accelerate in H2 onwards (not in forecasts). Looking forward, we model cash EBITDA margins of 15% by FY’25e (FY’22: 9%) driven by GHT guidance for 40%/new ARR dropping through. Couple this with projected 14% sales CAGR to FY’25e and FCF yield moves sharply higher to 5%/7% by FY’24e/FY’25e. That’s compelling.