Evgen Pharma Share Price (EVG)

It’s now ten weeks since the dispute notice was issued. What on earth is going on here? You would think that this would be resolved in a phone call, have we fulfilled our commitments for the $500k milestone payment or not? If not what have we not done?

The good news is that Stalicla have not pulled the plug.

I’m starting to think that Stalicla are reluctant to pay any money as they want to buy out EVG, it would save them a fortune compared to the $160m milestone payments plus royalties. Could that be why EVG acquired a new company and raised cash in order to show Stalicla that they won’t be pushed about and EVG are in no hurry to sell cheaply? Is it why we’ve finally seen some of the board finally buy some shares? It feels like Stalicla paid the original $500k to test out SFX-01 and then make a decision to scrap the deal or buy out EVG.

The above could be totally wrong but it is possible. It’s risky buying in here but I’m going to buy back in, only a few hundred thousand shares. I’m not encouraging anyone else to do the same, but just thought I’d share my views.

I would agree that the Stalicla deal is still extremely important, particularly for the short term, however I do not agree that if the deal was pulled it would be game over. With the cash available from the raise, Evgen would still have time to complete on another deal. However, Stalicla pulling out would put significant pressure on not only the share price, but also management. The lack of any deals subsequent to Stalicla would raise concerns around the likelihood of another one being competed in time before cash runs out.

I do have to agree that it seems like Stalicla wanted SFX-01 on the cheap, a feeling I had when the news first dropped of the dispute, but maybe we're being too cynical and there really is something that Stalicla believe Evgen has missed to receive the payment. And if this was the reason for the slow payment from Stalicla, I would imagine that they will now rethink as the possibility of getting SFX-01 on the cheap has passed for now. With enough cash for circa two years, administration is off the cards for now and I doubt the majority of investors would support a lowball take-over bid. An offer of a least 5p may get support, but if management are confident in their ability to ‘add shareholder value’ over the next few years, than they may not recommend such an offer to shareholders.

I do not, however, agree that losing the Stalicla deal would benefit Evgen, such beliefs, in my opinion, are fanciful at best. The Stalicla deal is only for indications in neurodevelopmental disorders and so does not limit the ability to licence SFX-01 for other indications. Throughout the rest of the year I would like to see the Stalicla issues resolved and another deal completed on for confidence to return.

It’s a fair write up xxxinvestorxxx. It is a fair balanced view you’ve given and I can understand you wanting to be positive and optimistic.

I do agree with LWHL that everything does rest on the Stalicla deal, if that was to fall through then this is worthless and the fact there is some problem is alarming. On a positive note it’s almost 10 weeks since the dispute was issued and Stalicla haven’t pulled the plug but god knows what is going on. I am of the impression that Stalicla have a deal in place costing $160m plus royalties but have realised EVG is worth peanuts and why not try and pick up EVG for next to nothing if the SFX-01 is effective and save an absolute fortune. Maybe that’s why they are not paying the $500k and delaying moving this into phase 2?

That certainly is a splendid phrase, although I reckon that you would do well to get yourself a tin foil hat here...find someone to swap for your rose tinted glasses if you can....and put that saved money into a stock worthy of investment :)

Gallows joking aside - good luck to you and your fellow longs. If a miracle happens, at least I might be able to take a smaller loss on my rump holding left here.

Maybe the Stalicla deal raised some interest from other Bigger Pharma ?

Perhaps Stalicla pulling out would actually enable a bigger better deal to land on the table

Tin foil hat and rose tinted glasses in full effect ;-)