Chinese Property Market6 Aug 2014 07:55
China property: Dragon’s den: Between the end of June and the beginning of July, the MSCI China property index rallied by over a fifth, making up in one month all the ground lost since January.
Non-index member Greentown more than doubled that return, bouncing by nearly a half from June lows. By comparison, blue-chip China Overseas Land and Investment returned only 26% – better than the index, but worse than its lower-quality listed affiliate China Overseas Grand Oceans. COGO managed a rise of 34%, despite a profit warning in mid-July. But recent results (and warnings about them) have made grim reading.
On Tuesday, Greentown said that first-half earnings would fall by two-thirds, making only 14% of Barclays’ full year earnings estimates. Semi-annual sales, announced early July, did not reveal the 6% drop in first half gross margins. The shares dropped nearly a tenth. COLI and COGO announced earlier, at the end of July. COLI, with good-quality exposure to China’s biggest cities, reported a fall in earnings per share just shy of a fifth. EPS at COGO dropped almost a third. Since then, COGO is down 17%. COLI is down only four.