Carclo Plc Share Price (CAR.GB.PL)

Pressure is building… The bid is 12.5p and the ask 17p. That’s a 26% spread. The price suppression feels to me again to be part of the technical picture. Carclo, as of next Wednesday, will not only be above the trendline on the weekly chart but also above the monthly. This is potentially huge. And the buying pressure reflected in the ask price is to me a very strong indicator that we are sitting on a volcano that is about to explode.

BUT DYOR and GLA

Hi all. New here. Long-time lurker, first-time poster. This is an exciting juncture for Carclo and several other businesses I’ve been watching that have taken a big hit in recent times (PHE and TGP on the LSE and NANO on the TSX). But it’s Carclo I find most compelling of a very interesting bunch.

The share hit a high (a classic double top) in January 2013 and went on a dramatic slide. When that downtrend was broken, in December 2014 and at about 90p, it went on to double over the next 30 months to about 180p, before resuming its downtrend. That slide that commenced in June 2017 has endured five-and-a-half years. It hit peaks in May and November 2021 and September 2022, without ever breaking out.

Yet next week, just by dint of time, (barring a calamity in price today) the share looks like opening above the trendline on the weekly chart for the first time across those 67 months. That is quite important, and the share - which has provably traded very technically - looks like it is making a bit of a move today.

It would take nothing to double in price (to where I initially invested with my SIPP and family funds) and that is why I have bought again today.

Still more intriguingly, though, are the Fibonacci levels in this recent downtrend. A retracement to the 50% Fib would take it to 91p, tantalisingly close to the several equal highs at 94p, and to the ICT fair-value gap to the swing low at 101p.

I consider these modest targets. In the longer term, the swing low at 316p should also be achievable.

The reason I think this is that there could be a tremendous amount of growth around the corner for Carclo with just a little bit of a pivot in what it does. Carclo has been active in the aerospace sector for 100 years. Its specialism there is, inter alia, applying technical plastics to electronic components and aerofoil blading.

Now consider this. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated one thing more than any other: the value of drones. Small, cheap drones and thousands of them. Currently these are sourced from China, which is hardly a reliable partner in a major defence-procurement exercise.

I would guess that, through a tweak of its existing capabilities, Carclo could quickly be in a position to deliver cheaply mass-produced, British-made drones to the MoD and other NATO partners, whether directly or as commissioned by a major defence contractor.

I am a humble retail investor with no inside knowledge whatsoever, but if management are not actively exploring this potential already, then they are letting shareholders down.

If they are, however, then the possibilities for Carclo are tremendous, and a 2000+ percent increase in the market cap (to c£200m) could be eminently achievable. In that event, the current fears over gearing and the pension deficit would become a negligible sideshow.

This is, to my mind, one of the most undervalued shares on the market.

BUT: DYOR and GLA.

Cheers,

?Testudo

Frank, since when has there been logic on the alternative markets :-(

A few weeks ago we had atrading update:
1. Trading ahead of expectations for the 1st 4 months.
2. Despite headwinds trading performed strongly.
3. Order intake (visability) good.
4. Framework agreement moving into production on time and to budget.
5. Aerospace early signes of recovery, (now US opening) orders ahead of production.
6. Cash generation good and ahead of prior year. New pension initatives.
7. Share price !
Update 44p. Now 34p
where is the Logic?

It's a discrace that the new listing was announced at lunch time.
This is market sensitve news and should have been posted at 7am.
Then ALL SHAREHOLDERS not just a few who were around and happened to see it would have been free to buy or sell the shares on a level playing field.