Barr (A.G.) Share Price (BAG)

Yes, I agree heavy buying by the CFO in normal circumstances would be indicative of a positive outlook. But disagree for contrarian reasons on this occasion.

Unfortunately both BAG execs and (from my own personal experience) 99.9% of LSE posters utterly fail to take in the significance and severity of profit warnings and how the market treats them. IMO the SP from the day of the profit warning has now become wholly unreliable and will mislead until at least summer next year, where, only then will it be more "safer" and not a green light, that concern over the SP is over. Until then, I believe the SP will alternate from disappoint to delight - both will be unreliable.

The data by academic researchers shows that if you have researched the stock well, and have full confidence in it's long term recovery then you can look at the inevitable dips to come as topping-up opportunities, otherwise the general advice is to sell on the day of the profit warning, or short it on the day.

I had posted elsewhere (behind a pay wall) of a possible worst case scenario of 420 being a possibility - at the worst. I'm not forecasting it, neither was the poster your post references who mentioned 420, but merely highlight it as a worst case potential possibility. If I knew for certain it was heading there then I would say here that would be my entry vicinity into BAG. But that is a strong support level and before that is a less stronger one in the 530's, which coincidentally brings me to the point of this post, and a suggestion of 530's as far more likely a floor (presupposing the SP does visit the 500's at some point in the next full year).

And it's because of the (forward) P/E ratio.

BAG has always been awarded a premium P/E ratio by the market for its perceived growth potential. Just before the profit warning it was running at near double the industry average at well over P/E30+ And back in June it was in the high 20's at P/E28. Right now with the reduced profits warned for H2, the forward PE ratio is down to P/E20.2 Only thing is that's still sporting a premium rating to the market - as the industry median is fwd P/E17.5

Hardly "severe punishment" by the market is it? Just to bring the SP down to the industry median would still not be a real downgrading; only bringing BAG into line with the industry average. And that for the SP would be 536p just to give BAG a P/E of 17.5

So 536 and STILL the P/E ratio would only be 'average'. Also it fits rather neatly with the 50% Fibbo retracement level of 530's area. However down below that is the ultimate 61.8% Fibbo retracement of the 420's.

So my first stop-over for considering either an entry or a top-up would be the 530's.

It's all to do with the profit warning as the CFO and his early purchase may well soon discover to his cost - or not if you believe that him buying, tops all other opinions including how the market treats profit-warning hit shares.

All above IMO

Sales looking good of soft drinks

plus first non alcho pub in UK opened by Sainsburys

Have some faith

When The Finance director Stuart Lorimer has been buying over 10000 shares in the last three days .
Its Hardly an indication the the share price is Heading towards £ 4.20 LOL .

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/share-research/201907/ag-barr-sales-fall-on-****tail-of-woes

Well to awnser my own question.......

I was willing to disregrad my own predjudices with regard to Barrs food quality.

I mean colourings and additives may be allright for fag smoking peep who do not care

about their working class 'elf' or 'toof decay'.

But something said to me this stuff is all so in the past.

The trend now is quality no additives no artificial etc.

No sucralose no saccahrin no e colours no aspartame etc?

Of course I realise its difficult to industrialise mass produce affordable prouducts without cutting corners.

But...............................

France for example seems to be quite able of producing tasty lemomnades sans all the garbage

sausage roll next company .