Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited Share Chat (ZIOC.GB.PL)

EX, spamming both boards with your Headmaster attempt at micro dissection of posts . You have posted a lot of nonsense recently!

Hows the Congolese football team doing these days any update?

ATB

Hi MM,

From 1st July.."This tallies with a corporate jet arriving in Brazzaville today [@ 4.30pm] having flown from Abu Dhabi via Dubai..."

And which flew back to AbuDhabi today 2nd July dep BRZ @ 10.30am.

The only flight meeting your specs is a Gulfstream G550 Reg HB-IIW owned by Jet Aviation Business Jets, a Basel-based provider of jet services owned by General Dynamics.

It spent the previous 2 weeks in AbuDhabi, the two weeks before that in Basel/Salzburg, the 10 days before that between London, Milan and Warsaw.

As with HB-IIW, you've previously suggested (30 May) a big private jet's movements were relevant to/implied supportive of the ZIOC investment case :

.."Readers at this point may be interested in the May movements of a corporate jet of some size.

London > Jeddah > Brazzaville > Nairobi (where and when President Nguesso was attending the African Development Bank's annual meeting). From Nairobi it was headed back to Brazzaville before diverting to Luanda, Luanda being the Portuguese-speaking city where Vale are thought to be quietly hanging out..."

These dates and destinations aren't compatible with those of HB-IIW - which in any case shows traffic appropriate for a high end taxi service - so one or other is wrong, possibly both. As a comparison of the two IDs would have made obvious.

Anyway, I was reminded of this when checking on PP-FCC (confirmed Asperbras ownership and hence the Lula/Nguesso connection), which flew

- Penapolis > Sao Paolo > Cascais on 26 June;

- Cascais > Libreville > Franceville >unknown on 30 June; and

- unknown > Libreville on 1st July [arr.1900]

There's no playback for the flight to 'unknown' on 30th, the partial flight playback on 1st July extrapolates straight-line to a departure from Brazzaville ( ...or Zanaga) earlier in the day.

Big Den may or may not have been in BRZ at the time, having flown back from Russia on the 1st.

More grist for the (rumour) mill !

Hi Jiving,

Thanks for this.

I imagine there's a lot of bluffing and posturing going on - the apparent 'resurrection' of EPP in the latest A/R... and maybe - coincidentally - today's news on t'other board re Sundance/Nabeba concession settlement agreement?

To me, ZIOC is signalling 'we have options', maybe the Chinese are doing the same.?

In both cases, I guess the Q in counterparts' minds will be 'are they serious'?

And do the Gulfies have 'options' - other than play 'tag-along' - if they want to have a say in the whole supply chain (as seems to be Ma'aden's mantra) ?

I don't have a sense for how assertive the Japanese/Koreans might be in what is largely AIUI unfamiliar territory, Jindal is already carving its own path, could a.n.other throw their hat in the ring ? One of the Aussies ?

How much store can we set by Marty's apparently firm conviction that FEED WILL start Q3 ?

Interesting times, for sure.

ATB

Hi Extrader

Thats an interesting observation that Saudis/UAE/AD Ports may have been trying to snooker ZIOC. Elphick then IMO played the China card with the 2024 FS being so China facing & focussed - in terms of clout in RoC the Saudis cant muscle out the Chinese. It looks to me like Elphick/Glencore have since July 2023 tried to set up a Saudi vs China bidding contest based on the 2024 FS.

It is likely that those bidding - as a consortium or single buyer - for a full buyout will want/need a miner on board as developer/operator. The Saudis, given their strategic stake in Vale's non-iron subsidiary, surely have an inside track with Vale, but I dont see why Vale could not act in that capacity for other potential buyout bidders. The Chinese would likely want to go it alone, as they have done with their portion of the Simandou project. I remain sceptical about the Marty start-up attracting a strategic investor in a buy-in. There is seemingly as yet no taker for 'just' the $20+m needed for FEED - surely a low cost/low risk option for an interested party? Maybe Marty with his development/green emphasis is pitching to the Europeans - lets hope so, the more the merrier.

Subscriptions and Shard Sale

Zanaga Iron Ore Company announces that, further to ZIOC's announcement at 07:05am this morning, the Company granted Shard Merchant Capital Ltd ("SMC") a waiver from the share trading limitations imposed by the equity subscription agreements in respect of a sale by SMC of a block of ZIOC shares and it has been informed by SMC that it has conditionally sold 14,380,953 shares of the shares to be issued to it pursuant to the Shard Facility at a price of 5.25 pence per share.

> Those 14,380,953 conditionally sold shares have now all been printed - see 7 blocks at 5.25p below:

Time Price Volume Value

08:53:34 5.75 1,000,000 57.50k O

11:37:24 5.6276 904,762 50.92k O

08:13:46 5.25 1,619,047 85.00k O

16:47:04 5.615 280,000 15.72k O

16:34:08 5.25 380,952 20.00k O

16:34:04 5.25 952,380 50.00k O

16:32:38 5.25 476,190 25.00k O

16:32:27 5.25 1,000,000 52.50k O

16:32:24 5.25 2,095,238 110.00k O

16:32:21 5.25 7,857,146 412.50k O

> £755,000 worth, £717,250 after Shard's 5%, for c.$915,000.

>> That's the Glencore loan cleared and then some, with Glencore's $300,000 and Elphick's $20,000 yet to be printed.

>>> Of HUGE note is we have moved from 'conditionally sold' to actually printed with a single trading day. ZIOC now debt free and solvent way ahead of the 31st July deadline.

The Company have got this done without a moment's delay, strongly indicating that hard news is imminent.

This tallies with a corporate jet arriving in Brazzaville today having flown from Abu Dhabi via Dubai.

Deal time.

Ex-Well that’s tranche 3&1 complete!!

I’m in agreement with Nibj on the other board,

“Rather have placement done at a 20% discount than drip fed over a prolonged period of time(weighing the share price down).

We should get back to the 7-8p trading range before weeks end.

Overall strange feeling, down on the day, but feeling more positive than ever!

Gla.

Hi Driving,

What's your EOD take, now that those late trades are in ?

;->

Hi Jiving,

Your ref to the flurry of activity last spring; the 'rushed' AD Ports Concession signing; and the subsequent 15 months of 'masterly inactivity' it does seem that the move may have been in part a blocking tactic to discourage/frustrate a rival group emerging ...with the hope of forcing ZIOC/GLEN into a cheap take-out.

I see the Elphick/GLEN share purchases as a signal to everyone that the 2 parties are still in lockstep; resurrection of the EPP as a signal to everyone that there's a 'plan B' (or maybe 'plan C'); and comment that the AD Ports discussions 'continue' a signal/reminder that there's no 'done deal' yet.

While the Shard hi-jinks today are (I suspect, re allocations) the reason they were promoted 'immediately' to Joint Broker as recently as the March 2024 Project and Funding update.

GLA

Yes, I agree.

That there are multiple Strategics engaged, both singly and as consortia, means we will surely reach to the NPV in the competitive bidding situation that now seems assured.

It's worth doing a roll call of names that could bid for the entirety of Zanaga: Baosteel, Nippon Steel, BHP, Vale, perhaps an Indian conglomerate.

Hi Jiving - FWIW I am much more confident in my timeline of events than I felt able to post. Necessarily I have made some generalisations and left out a few details.

In the meantime here's another soundbite from today's RNSs - '...continued engagement with strategic partners.'

Clifford Elphick, Chairman of ZIOC commented: "I am delighted to inform ZIOC shareholders that Glencore and I have purchased further shares in ZIOC today, demonstrating our further support for the continued development of the Zanaga Project, and supporting management's continued engagement with strategic partners."

Hi MM,

Hi MM, interesting observations & timeline. As ever there is no right/wrong in the extrapolations we try to make from what little info we receive from the company. But overall I feel the 2024 FS process that has cost us all (including Elphick/ Glencore) time, money & dilution must be for a substantial reason - ie a significantly increased price for a buy-in or buyout vs what was available in 2023.

I am completely at one with you in believing a Saudi/Gulf consortium has been an active bidding party since early 2023 (& their likely interest may even have spurred the Glencore stake merger deal). The sudden flurry of activity that took place between the Saudis/UAE & Denis in Spring 2023 leading to the AD Port announcement amongst others, suggests something was 'up'. Here is where I wonder if there was a basic price disagreement between the Saudis & ZIOC - ZIOC hoping pricing would be based on a 2014 FS ++ (allowing for positive changes since since 2014) but Saudis sticking to the 2014 FS.

Hence the big July 2023 announcement of a 2024 FS that would move pricing talks to a different, higher updated level. But the key aspect of the 2024 FS for me was the blatant pitch to China - Chinese contractors, Chinese power, maybe Chinese port (as alt to AD) - ie Chinese everything but ownership of the mine & offtake. Potentially bringing a Chinese bidder into the picture in direct competition to the Gulfies. It is competition that will drive a price closer to the 2024 FS numbers & what this delay IMO has all been about. Whatever, I believe today has cleared the decks for a bidding contest, where the 2 main likely bidders already have all the relevant info & have had plenty of time to determine what price they will bid. We are hopefully - at last - in the final stage.

Jiv- waiting on EOD to answer that question..let’s see how many black/late trades get reported.

Ps good call on the “running on fumes”.

Gla.

Sadly looking at the market price & volume (6.8m so far) it looks to me like a big chunk of the shares (ex Glencore/Elphick) have simply been dumped back into the market.

Ex-interesting thought.

Makes sense since the previous 2 tranches were traded as large black trades.

So I guess we are waiting on a 6m(ish) black trade to conclude the placement, then off to the races!..

Gla.

Hi Driving

My guess FWIW would be Elphick's sub-radar 'core ' investors from the JPM days, Garbut etc....

Mm- a very good summary.

Who do you speculate acquired the 14m shares?

Ps-Just for the record you called me an idiot for suggesting that glencore would convert the loan to equity.

Still got a gut feeling glencore are about to reveal their hand…

Gla.

Hi Jiving - as I understand it:

In Nov 2022 ZIOC negotiated executive control of the project with Glencore stepping back. This was at the instigation of a particular group of Strategics.

Jan 2023, Manara Minerals was formed by the PIF and Ma'aden of Saudi Arabia. AD Ports got the PN extension concession in April, though the new mineral port remains under discussion and pending. Our Chinese EPC got started on reworking the project.

By Sept 2023 the company were confident enough of a deal to stipulate an end 1Q24 deal dateline. The management took shares in lieu of salary in October, and the dateline was restated in the company's Investor Presentation of November. The deal was live in January, hence AT's excitement at the FMF in Riyadh.

This is where things got complicated. Marty Knowth joined as ZIOC CEO in Dec 2023 since when he has been instrumental in introducing new Strategics to the project as well as rekindling old flames. This means that our end-March 2024 'Strategic' (which I take to have been a Gulf consortium) now has direct competition for Zanaga.

March 20th 2024 was key. On that date Ma'aden announced to the Tadawul that the close on Manara's deal with VBM was delayed. By their own admission, Manara wouldn't pursue other deals until VBM closed. It eventually closed at the end of April. However the 'Gulf' consortium had lost their exclusive. Of this I am 95%+ confident.

HOWEVER....by the end of April the Feasibility Study had been reworked and was then presented to the whole suite of Strategics - Marty's 5 country roadshow which included China and Japan.

Where we stand now is that the roadshow has been completed and the Strategics have been providing feedback. This is informing the progress of pre-FEED, the clues of which can also be seen in Marty's LinkedIn likes.

This consultation process is now finishing (perhaps has finished). The next step is for ZIOC to lay out the specific ground rules and procedure for the decision makers (executives and money men) in the various consortia (plural) and single entity Strategics to make specific expressions of interest. This process is imminent.

The sensitivity of the position forced ZIOC to react to the specifics within the This is Money article. The article was accurate so the details could not be denied. However ZIOC sought to deflate immediate expectations (and assuage Strategics' sensitivities) by issuing a non-denial denial; the best the could manage was 'at this time' for an 'active deal'. AT the time of their deal RNS last week they may well not have started the deal process, but they could and likely will start it any moment now.

This state of play was confirmed this morning when ZIOC announced that '....the Company expects to be in a position to repay all of the Glencore Loan on or prior to its due date of 31 July 2024 and be debt free - a positive step in enabling the advancement of further discussions with potential strategic partners. '

Deal time.

Just added, not sure if through stupidity or tactical investing, either way, the way I see it ZIOC have had plenty of opportunity to clear the decks prior to today, so why NOW !!

Given 'insider' reports, true or not, can there really be that much longer for this to trundle on as is !

aimo & dyor

Its a big positive they did this in one transaction - clearing the debt & raising an additional $200k for expenses. Disappointed they did the sale at such a big discount to market but 'life is life', and they must have wanted to clear uncertainty prior to the key strategic discussions.

I know you have commented recently on this MM, particularly after last weeks events. My thinking now is that all detailed negotiations with strategic investors were essentially put on hold this time last year until the 2024 FS figures were finalised (whilst of course keeping all parties aware & updated on progress). Because ZIOC would want to make those the 2024 FS simultaneously available to ALL interested parties & set into motion essentially an auction process - & Marty just delivered the presentation to them all in person to start the auction. Which would also explain why they might not have engaged in detailed discussions with 'A' strategic investor, because that would have potentially crippled their ability to offer a level playing field for ALL interested parties. Now whichever strategic investor offers the best terms based on the 2024 FS gets the deal. 'Insider' in the Mail could thus be correct in expecting interested parties to submit (pre-prepared) bids, whilst the follow up response would be correct that no single strategic investor was currently in detailed discussions.

Get them while you can

Debt free going into those active discussions with Strategics.

Immediate Shard overhang dissipates.

BOOM

14,380,953 shares at 5.25p = £755,000

plus

$300,000 from Glencore and $20,000 from ZIOC chairman Clifford Elphick.

> THE COMPANY EXPECTS TO BE IN A POSITION TO REPAY ALL OF THE GLENCORE LOAN ON OR PRIOR TO ITS DUE DATE OF 31 JULY 2024 AND BE DEBT FREE - A POSITIVE STEP IN ENABLING THE ADVANCEMENT OF FURTHER DISCUSSIONS WITH POTENTIAL STRATEGIC PARTNERS.

01 July 2024

Subscriptions and Shard Sale

Zanaga Iron Ore Company ("ZIOC" or the "Company") (AIM:ZIOC) announces that, further to ZIOC's announcement at 07:05am this morning, the Company granted Shard Merchant Capital Ltd ("SMC") a waiver from the share trading limitations imposed by the equity subscription agreements in respect of a sale by SMC of a block of ZIOC shares and it has been informed by SMC that it has conditionally sold 14,380,953 shares of the shares to be issued to it pursuant to the Shard Facility at a price of 5.25 pence per share (the "Shard Facility Sale") ("Trade Price").

In addition, Glencore and Mr Clifford Elphick (Non-Executive Chairman of ZIOC) have subscribed for shares at the same price, involving share purchases of US$300,000 and US$20,000 of ordinary shares respectively (further details provided below).

The approximately US$300,000 proceeds of the Subscription by Glencore will be applied to repay an equivalent amount of the Glencore Loan. As a result of the Shard Facility Sale and the Subscriptions by Glencore and Mr Elphick, the Company expects to be in a position to repay all of the Glencore Loan on or prior to its due date of 31 July 2024 and be debt free - a positive step in enabling the advancement of further discussions with potential strategic partners.

https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/rns/announcement/2c2152da-29e3-49e4-8c19-7fb63b25ce2e/