Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited Share Chat (ZIOC.GB.PL)

6.09p trades, the highest for 5 weeks since the Glencore loan coverage at 5.25p.

Is that the best MM can come up with? While it's very welcome it's a shame there aren't several more buys of a similar amount to send the SP past 10p. It's about time ZIOC suffered from too much interest rather than too little! And there's a tipping point somewhere north of 10p where excess demand will lead to huge gains as the very few shares in public hands becomes apparent.

08-Aug-24 08:03:17 5.954 600,000 Unknown* 5.32 5.98 35.72k

Yep, as I suggested looks like yesterday big buy order filled today that was reason for +10% close.

aimo & dyor

Could you imagine, panicking and selling up or reducing during the recent dip. What a mistaka to maka :-)

Nice buy! 👍

Just printed

600,000 BUY at 5.954p at 08:03:17

Someone knows something

Hi NewKOTB

I think someone stuck in the 5.64p bid just before the close

Yes MM, very strange, we moved up ~9% just BEFORE the close, with auction UT taking us to +10.48%. Guess we could have a buy order being filled over several sessions maybe or a fat fingered friend !

aimo & dyor

Yes, that's a 172,523 Buy at 5.64p

07-Aug-24 16:35:01 5.64 172,523 UT

What Is a Virtual Data Room?

A virtual data room (VDR), also known as a deal room, is a secure online repository for document storage and distribution. It is typically utilized during the due diligence process preceding a merger or acquisition to review, share, and disclose company documentation

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/virtual-data-room-vdr.asp

Adding it all up and in all rational scenarios, Zanaga is about to get developed.

Our SP is but temporarily stranded following the Glencore repayment that makes us debt free, but no matter.

For me there are only 2 questions; When will an offer be made and for how much?

The nearest NPV is at $3.8bn, which equates to £4.40 or so.

That will be the starting point of the bidding.

The total resource at Zanaga is likely ***IN EXCESS OF*** 6x the reserve used to calculate the NPVs given in the recently reworked Feasibility Study.

The interested Strategics will know this. 100%

When? Any day now.

...and Australia cannot supply it:

IRON ORE’S BIGGEST CUSTOMER CLEANS UP ITS ACT

China is the largest importer of Australian iron by a hefty margin. Australia shipped 736 million tonnes – more than 80% of iron ore exports – to China in 2022. Last year, China’s steel mills made up the majority of global steel production. But they were also a major polluter, accounting for about 15% of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

They’re now facing a double whammy of decarbonisation pressures.

At home, the Chinese government has mandated the steel industry reduce its emissions as part of China’s wider “dual carbon” goals. These will require emissions to peak before 2030 and for the country to become carbon neutral by 2060.

And internationally, upcoming tariffs on carbon-intensive steel imports are set to make producing “dirty” steel much costlier.

AUSTRALIAN ORE DOESN’T MAKE THE GRADE

Making steel with low-grade iron ore isn’t at all carbon friendly. For one, it consumes vastly more energy in the traditional steelmaking process. My analysis shows that using one tonne of low-grade ore can emit over 200 kilograms more carbon dioxide in a blast furnace than high-grade.

A high level of impurities in low-grade ore also significantly reduces the efficiency of the process.

Reducing the use of low-grade ore has become a priority for Chinese steel mills, significantly affecting iron ore’s demand profile. Much of the iron ore exported by competing nations like Brazil and Guinea is high-grade, containing more than 65% iron. But most of Australia’s current exports fall below that threshold, between 56% and 62%.

https://cosmosmagazine.com/technology/materials/chinas-green-steel-could-crush-iron-ore-exports/

As Vale themselves were saying just this May:

DECARBONIZATION IN THE STEEL INDUSTRY CREATING TWO-TIERED IRON ORE MARKET

The iron ore market is expected to diverge into two segments in line with the steelmaking industry’s march toward reducing carbon emissions, Fastmarkets learned at the 2024 Singapore Iron Ore Forum (SIOF) on Tuesday May 7

May 10, 2024 By Norman Fong

Iron ore

Eduardo de Mello Franco, Marketing Manager of iron ore pricing at Vale said that structural undersupply of high-grade iron ore, which is projected to tip 70 million tonnes by 2030, is expected to drive a wedge between mid-grade iron ore sinter fines and high-grade iron ore.

STRUCTURAL SUPPLY-DEMAND DEFICIT SUPPORTS LONG-TERM PREMIUMS ON HIGH-GRADE GREEN IRON ORE

Franco added that the expansion of carbon neutral steelmaking feedstocks like direct reduced iron (DRI) in response to the establishment of more rigorous carbon reporting and pricing is expected to put a strong premium on specialized ores that help to reduce emissions vis a vis other mid-grade ores.

Speaking in the high-grade iron ore panel at the SIOF, Renato Hendrikson, head of strategic marketing at Samarco said that the fundamental tightness high-grade iron ore supply amid the expansion of global DRI production capacity necessitates a differentiated pricing approach compared with direct shipping ores (DSO).

DIVERGING FUNCTIONS OF IRON ORE USAGE

Hendrikson added that the predominant function of high-grade pellet feed is vastly different from most DSO, which require a coal-intensive process of sintering to be used in blast furnaces (BFs).

High-grade iron ore pellet feed, which typically has an iron content of 67% and above and a combined gangue (silica + alumina content) of less than 3.5%, is commonly the feedstock in the production of direct-reduced (DR) pellets, which are then in turn used to produce DRI – a feedstock for steel production with the electrical-arc furnace (EAF), alongside scrap or pig iron.

https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/decarbonization-in-the-steel-industry-creating-two-tiered-iron-ore-market/

31st July 2024

Stausholm cited the "enormous" impact of China's green transition on steel demand, for solar cells and the expansion of wind power and electric vehicles, which he also expects to feed into higher consumption of high-grade iron ore.

That will benefit customers as its high-grade iron ore Simandou project in Guinea starts production late next year, Stausholm said.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/rio-tinto-reports-largely-flat-first-half-profit-2024-07-30/

> Rio's boss observing the 'bifurcation' of the iron ore market into two parts: high grade iron ore for 'green steel' with 'enormous demand' from renewables (plus all things consumer related in response to carbon taxes), lower grades for ships, construction etc..

A hectic week in Brazil and Chile last week saw the Saudis touting bi-lateral investments, both in their own mineral wealth and that of South America.

Some reported that the Saudis are interested in investing in Vale's huge Carajas complex, citing 'iron ore'. However 'iron ore' is an unlikely quarry for a number of reasons; Vale already own the ore so the Saudis wouldn't achieve the stellar margins available elsewhere (wink), Carajas averages 65.4% fe, below the 67% threshold for DR iron production, and Vale are looking for expansion opportunities outside of the Amazon given permitting issues; tailings, environment and natives. Carajas does have opportunities in their other side gigs; manganese, copper, tin, aluminium and even gold. These would be of interest to Manara Minerals through their recent JV with Vale Base Metals, and hence where I think the Saudi interest lies.

What was intriguing, and perhaps very relevant to 'Zanaga', was the interest shown by minister Bandar al Khorayef in Vale's iron ore mining expertise and whether it could be transferred, such as this tweet:

@balkhorayef Minister of Industry and Mineral Resources

3:46 pm · jul 28, 2024

I visited the Carajás mine complex of the Vale company in the Brazilian amazon forest, which is one of the largest iron ore production complexes in the world, and I learned about their pioneering experience in extracting and processing minerals, and discussed ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in this field, in addition to discussing the company’s future plans in the kingdom.

https://x.com/balkhorayef/status/1817572237714563145

and this report:

'..during the visit, al Khorayef was briefed on the modern technologies used by Vale in extracting and processing minerals in these huge mines, including remote mine management technology and transporting mining materials with trucks without a driver. He also discussed with company officials ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in the field of mining, especially with regard to mining in rainforests while preserving the environment, as Vale has pioneering experience in balancing the exploitation of iron ore in its mines located within natural reserves and preserving the amazon forests and their living organisms, in addition to building an effective partnership with the communities neighboring its mines.'

> So specifically, mining huge iron ore deposits in tropical rain forests and the ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in these fields.

> These are the precise attributes that be needed on any vale-saudi jv at zanaga.

Now stir in Vale's long-frustrated West African ambitions from Simandou days coupled with Saudi demand for high grade iron ore to feed their proposed green steel industry and we have the perfect co'cktail for a Zanaga bid between the two.

Bandar's helicopter tour of Carajas video:

https://x.com/mimgov/status/1817888013549969642

a hectic week in brazil and chile last week saw the saudis touting bi-lateral investments, both in their own mineral wealth and that of south america.

some reported that the saudis are interested in investing in vale's huge carajas complex, citing 'iron ore'. however 'iron ore' is an unlikely quarry for a number of reasons; vale already own the ore so the saudis wouldn't achieve the stellar margins available elsewhere (wink), carajas averages 65.4% fe, below the 67% threshold for dr iron production, and vale are looking for expansion opportunities outside of the amazon given permitting issues; tailings, environment and natives. carajas does have opportunities in their other side gigs; manganese, copper, tin, aluminium and even gold. these would be of interest to manara minerals through their recent jv with vale base metals, and hence where i think the saudi interest lies.

what was intriguing, and perhaps very relevant to 'zanaga', was the interest shown by minister bandar al khorayef in vale's iron ore mining expertise and whether it could be transferred, such as this tweet:

@balkhorayef minister of industry and mineral resources

3:46 pm · jul 28, 2024

i visited the carajás mine complex of the vale company in the brazilian amazon forest, which is one of the largest iron ore production complexes in the world, and i learned about their pioneering experience in extracting and processing minerals, and discussed ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in this field, in addition to discussing the company’s future plans in the kingdom.

https://x.com/balkhorayef/status/1817572237714563145

and this report:

'..during the visit, al-kharif was briefed on the modern technologies used by vale in extracting and processing minerals in these huge mines, including remote mine management technology and transporting mining materials with trucks without a driver. he also discussed with company officials ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in the field of mining. especially with regard to mining in rainforests while preserving the environment, as vale has pioneering experience in balancing the exploitation of iron ore in its mines located within natural reserves and preserving the amazon forests and their living organisms, in addition to building an effective partnership with the communities neighboring its mines.'

> so specifically, mining huge iron ore deposits in tropical rain forests and the ways to transfer knowledge and expertise in these fields.

> these are the precise attributes that be needed on any vale-saudi jv at zanaga.

now stir in vale's long-frustrated west african ambitions from simandou days coupled with saudi demand for high grade iron ore to feed their proposed green steel industry and we have the prefect ****tail for a zanaga bid between the two.

bandar's helicopter tour of carajas video:

https://x.com/mimgov/status/1817888013549969642

The financing of ZIOC's FEED phase would seem to fall within the IFC's criteria, see

https://www.ifc.org/en/what-we-do/products-and-services/how-to-apply-for-financing; and

https://www.ifc.org/en/what-we-do/products-and-services/ifc-project-cycle

IFC involvement would also be a significant mitigant to country risk, esp if the IFC's support included fellow World Bank group member MIGA support, see

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multilateral_Investment_Guarantee_Agency

.."The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is an international financial institution which offers political risk insurance and credit enhancement guarantees. These guarantees help investors protect foreign direct investments against political and non-commercial risks in developing countries.[2] MIGA is a member of the World Bank Group and is headquartered in Washington, D.C. in the United States..."

Doing a bit of dot-joining here, IFC involvement in any ZIOC project MIGHT explain C-B's otherwise curious initiative in approaching Sundance Resources to seek a settlement of its current expropriation litigation at ICSID.......settlement required by end Sept 2024.

What's that saying about buses?

GLA

Wow, alwayshoping !

From your link

.."The study was conducted using diverse scientific methodologies in line with the national Congolese regulations and international best practices such as International Finance Corporation (IFC) environmental and social performance standards..."

Have a look at https://commdev.org/blogs/clean-inclusive-and-green-esg-underpins-minings-net-zero-pathways/

.."Concrete ESG performance will be key in the Net Zero transition

As ESG considerations become top-of-mind for many industry stakeholders, demonstrating tangible and measurable ESG commitments on the road to net zero will be an important factor to enable continued growth—and ensure social license to operate at mining sites.

Instruments such as sustainability-linked loans and bonds are gaining traction as a way to incentivize such commitments, by linking achievement of environmental and social targets to reductions in borrowing costs. For example, IFC’s recent $100 million sustainability-linked loan for Anglo American is tied to social performance metrics, including education and job creation, with a focus on women and young people. The company has a stated commitment of 100 percent operational carbon neutrality by 2040.

Companies are increasingly partnering with IFC and other financial institutions to develop robust, transparent ESG performance metrics to guard against growing concerns over greenwashing..."

Anglo-American, De Beers, RTZ and Soth32 are all 'mentioned in despatches' as mining co's that are partnering with the IFC in achieving its/their ESG goals.

Maybe this is what MK is looking at ?

GLA

Great find, as usual alwayshoping!!!

AD Ports actively developing the new mole port at Pointe Noire.

Bearing in mind the Saudi Minister of Mining's (Bandar Al Khorayef) visit last week to Vale and Vale's Carajas Iron Ore complex, let's add in this from May 2023, Vale and AD Port's JV to operate Very Large Ore Carriers:

'....Furthermore, AD Ports Group will develop and manage conveyor infrastructure to transport iron ore and finished products to and from Khalifa Port, and will be exploring commercial collaboration with Vale on the marketing and sale of various bi-products of the manufacturing process in the UAE and the wider region.

The agreement also includes a maritime collaboration to explore opportunities related to management and operation of very large ore carriers (VLOCs) as well as other possible avenues of partnership. Diverse AD Ports is already a significant owner of dry bulk tonnage, albeit not in the valemax class.

Eduardo Bartolomeo, the CEO of Vale, said: “We are encouraged by this opportunity to build a mega hub in the UAE, a country which is strategically positioned to positively influence our drive to significantly reduce CO2 emissions around the globe. Our ability to leverage this new concept of using low-carbon technology in the production of hot briquetted iron signals the success of our products globally.” '

https://splash247.com/valemaxes-to-start-calling-at-abu-dhabi/

> VLOCs would be the necessary carriers of Zanaga iron ore to the Gulf and FE.

Https://www.adportsgroup.com/en/news-and-media/2024/07/31/development-of-the-environmental-and-social-impact-study-for-east-mole-terminal-in-pointe-noire

Oops!

Forgot to include alwayshoping's link...

https://english.aawsat.com/business/5045109-saudi-exim-bank-and-brazilian-development-bank-sign-mou

More on point, hat tip to alwayshoping for this, supporting a Brazil/China/Saudi grouping of potential funding sources...or should that be trifecta ?

Elphick's valiant efforts to create a 'bidding war' between two separate consortia - Saudi-led and China-led - may be scuppered by emergence of a safety-in-numbers 'grand coalition'....

Ho hum.

GLA

Speaking of parastatal funders and development banks, this overlap can't do any harm, either...:

April 2023

https://thediplomat.com/2023/04/former-brazilian-president-named-as-head-of-china-based-new-development-bank/

.."Rousseff previously served as President of Brazil from 2011 until 2016 under the Workers’ Party (PT), though she was impeached and removed from office on corruption charges. She took over from Lula da Silva, better known as Lula, also from the PT.

Rousseff had served in Lula’s cabinet as his chief of staff, as chair of the Board of Directors of state-owned oil company Petrobras, and as minister of mines and energy. Lula was also jailed on corruption charges and barred from running for office in the 2018 election, though the convictions have been annulled on a technicality by the Supreme Court.

Rousseff appeared alongside Lula at his inauguration in January and has served as one of his informal advisors on the economy and foreign policy. Their proximity will give the NDB – and, by extension, the Chinese leadership – a direct link to power in Brasilia...."

GLA

We only need a Piffling $4 to $5 BN and they can have the whole shebang. More than adequate..