Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited Share Chat (ZIOC.GB.PL)

@00:32 '...and they can do this at Zanaga?'

https://x.com/mimgov/status/1817888013549969642

Hi Catbert - I think you are on to something when you say, 'Certain people need to get in to a certain level and at a certain price before any notifiable events happen? Maybe'.

Rewind to the 1st July when Shard gifted a total of 19,184,515 shares to their cronies plus Glencore and our very own Clifford Elphick. This left them with 4,815,485 shares on their books from 12m T1 the newly-introduced 2024 ESA.

So far so clear. Since then we have seen a steady supply of shares, just sufficient to keep us below 6.00p and commensurate with Shard keeping to their orderly market provisions of the ESA.

Our low volume made this quite obvious yesterday. We had a larger 600,000 buy and then, through the day, we got this almost matched by sells; several 50,000s, a 125,000 and a 275,000 towards the close.

I think Shard have been using the T1 balance of 4.8m shares to try and keep us as close to the 5.25p as possible. There is some logic to say that equitable treatment of PIs would allow them to buy not just at the level of Elphich and Glencore (5.25p) but with the same degree of insight that our imminent RNS will give.

This being said, I have noted likely Shard sales of around 100-150,000 per day. If so and if they have matched a couple of larger buys, such as the 600,000 yesterday, then they must be very close to using up the 4.8m residual from 1st July.

Hence my agreement with you when you say, 'Certain people need to get in to a certain level and at a certain price before any notifiable events happen? Maybe'.

Some speculation, of course, however I do think we are very close to news and/or the brakes coming off.

PPS You'd expect most retail holdings to be anonymised through nominee companies such as Barclays, HSBC or Hargreaves Lansdowne.

What's to stop a 3% + shareholder buying, say, a 1% holding through each of 4 x nominees....

DAK ?

PS

As with (5), the 6 month gap between (6) and (9) to place SCM 2 Tr2 suggests that a lot of the 15m turnover on 4th Jan was retail, not SCM-related.

HTH

This is the timeline and relevant numbers, AFAICS

(1) The total of SCM facilities approved to-date is 21 + 36 + 36 = 93m, of which 21 + 36 + 2.4m = 59.4 m has been drawn.

(2) June 2020 SCM 1 - the first 21m - is launched. It generated £1.3m+ GLEN loan $ 1.2m = £ 2.4m and we were told (Sept 2022) that this should be sufficient to cover ZIOC's WCF needs until end Q3 2023. This gives a 'basic' run-rate of £ 66K per month for 36 months.

(3) 2 months later (Nov 2022), the Corporate Restructuring is announced.

(4) July 2023 SCM 2 - 36m - is launched. On 29 Sept 2023, we're told that SCM 1 is fully subscribed and that new facility SCM 2 will suffice for WCF through 'into Q3 2024', assuming GLEN loan extension.

(5) The 12m turnover on 7th Nov 2023 coincides with news of an Investor Presentation update re feasibility study.

(6) However, it's not until 14th Dec 2023 that we're notified that SCM 2 Tr 1 has been subscribed. So only part of the volume of (5) 5 weeks earlier is SCM-related.

(7) The 15m turnover on 4th Jan 2024 coincides with notification of GLEN loan facility (net post-increase to $ 1.8m now $ 1.4m) extension to 31 Mar 2024.

(8) 25 June 2024 brings the speeding ticket news.

(9) 28th June we're told SCM 2 Tr2 has been subscribed; that ZIOC wants to activate SCM 2 Tr 3; and that ZIOC intends to enter into SCM 3 for 36m.

(10) 1st July 2024 we're told that by 28 June SCM 2 Tr3 has been issued and subscribed and an initial SCM 3 Tr1 12m shares issued, of which 2.38m subscribed, total 'block' of 14.38m.

Observations :

At least some of the earlier lumpier turnover appears (public domain) news-driven, therefore likelier to be 'retail' -based.

The last 'block' 14.4m is likely wholesale and either SCM insiders (but why would Elphick accommodate them ?) or Elphick mates exGarbut (why not? as argued elsewhere).

The SCM facilities aren't 'open offer' , it's quite likely IMO that subscription is (largely) restricted to pre-approved buyers who believe the ZIOC story.

Meanwhile, other trading volume has come from some patient retail (incl posters here) and maybe some more 'informed' investors.

All AFAICS, feel free to correct and/or offer up other interpretations.

GLA

It is certainly plausible that there are behind the scenes goings on.

If so then the recent farrago where management had to intervene to kill the share price could be congruent with this sort of idea.

Certain people need to get in to a certain level and at a certain price before any notifiable events happen? Maybe.

If so it bodes well for us ordinary proles.

*not 'free float' but 'issued'.

Somebody's been buying, that's for sure. This is what has been absorbed recently-ish:

A 12m block on 7th Nov., a 15m block on 4th Jan., 3x12m from Shard thru 1H24 and 3m from T1/24.

That's 66m shares or c.10% of the free float. I don't think they've gone to us PIs, whilst 20m shares would be a disclosable amount (3%). Something of a mystery, but they've gone somewhere.

Again evidence of continued “inside buying”(there have been literally 10s of millions of black trades over the last 18mths since company restructuring)…

And still it goes on!

As for the “entity” that purchased the 14m+ at the recent placing(5.25p), got a strong feeling they will be involved in the incoming FEED stage financing requirement(if indeed not the potential strategic partner/buyer).

Gla & monumental news fast approaches!

Earlier

ZIOC Live Trades:

08:52:26 5.8855p 600,000 35.31k

MM its interesting you state Marty was in Korea - do you have a link to that info or if not what is the source?

MM- thanks for the insight, and seems very logical.

I personally am still not ruling out the possibility that Glencore do a U-turn and develop the asset(if it really is as great as we all believe, they’d be mad to give it up!?).

Ex- I’ve found Zioc to be at times extremely liquid, and at other times completely illiquid!

If you time your trades, I’ve personally been able to complete multiple 100k orders.

Gla.

For example and hypothetically:

To produce green steel in Japan, Nippon Steel could 100% buy and develop Zanaga and ship the pellet feed to Japan. However to make true green steel they would need to convert the IO to DRI using green hydrogen (H2). This H2 would have to be expensively and wastefully produced somewhere like Australia and shipped.

An Alternative for Nippon Steel would to JV into a conglomerate with the Middle East and Vale to ship Zanaga IO to the Middle East where it could be converted to DRI by natural gas and then green hydrogen as and when the tech improves.

So 2 options and some complicated NDAs to navigate. The above could have any number of participants and hence even more layers of complexity.

The complexity for Vale could be even greater: they could buy Zanaga outright, JV with the Saudis (my favourite) or even JV with the Saudis plus a FE conglomerate.

Nice problems to have, for us!

Hi alwayshoping! All the Asia steel powerhouses (China +JKT) are actively gearing up to produce green steel. The major question for them is whether they import the high grade pellet feed and make it from scratch or whether they import Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) from such places as the Middle East, and then convert that to green steel. The Middle East are building out their 3 green steel mega hubs where Vale are to play an active part producing the pellets.

As far as I can make out the live and active discussions are centred on who owns the iron ore and then where and when is the DRI process carried out. In turn that has necessitated a complex series of non-disclosure agreements - a number of Strategics have feet in a number of camps, either sole ownership and/or conglomerate participation. This would fit the debate whether to go it alone (produce steel from owned ore) or import the DRI.

MM. That is very interesting that Marti was in Korea, especially when we learn here of Korean plans relating to Green Steel.

https://www.theclimategroup.org/our-work/news/how-south-korea-can-become-home-net-zero-steel

What is even more interesting is where Korea currently receives the vast majority of its ore from.....Australia !! and as we all know, is virtually useless for producing Green Steel. So Korea may or may not be in the frame for Zanaga....but certainly joining the ever growing list of those countries requiring Zanaga grade ore.

"South Korea imports Iron Ore primarily from: Australia ($5.15B), Brazil ($867M), Canada ($620M), South Africa ($531M), and Chile ($241M). The fastest growing import markets in Iron Ore for South Korea between 2021 and 2022 were Chile ($157M), Canada ($76M), and Malaysia ($20.7M)."

As usual...alwayshoping.

Korea - the 3rd of 5 countries on Marty's May 24 Feasibility Study roadshow.

The others? Perm 2 from India, M.E. (Oman, UAE, SA) and Brazil.

Hi Driving,

A fair point, but....one might argue (with hindsight) that ZIOC only moved from being an outside chance after the Nov 22 corporate restructuring; that Elphick (with Shard facility) has had influence over 'material' trades; and that the (assumed/believed) limited 'genuine' free float has made meaningful accumulation difficult save for patient investors .....(*such as yourself?)

* as a matter of interest - and only reply if comfortable - was it difficult/time-consuming for you to pick up your own target stake, whatever that was?

GLA

PPS

Perhaps more pertinently, DSK's advisory services to Big Den included handling the IMF's (negative) views of the opaque oil finance loans arranged through SNPC (Little Den) with the likes of Trafigura and GLEN.

And DSK has/had strong Russian connections, with Rosneft...

These and earlier points from

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2022/12/15/pandora-papers-dominique-strauss-kahn-under-investigation-from-french-authorities_6007837_8.html

with more detail here , google translate is your friend...

https://www.challenges.fr/economie/quand-la-banque-lazard-dirigee-par-mathieu-pigasse-rejoint-dominique-strauss-kahn-et-stephane-fouks-au-chevet-du-congo_558075

GLA

Ex- The only comment I will make is, “surely the inside crowd have had long enough by now to accumulate!”

Gla.

PS

DSK is close to the Pigasse family, esp Michel, former head of Lazards France.

The Pigasse family media empire includes LeMonde, depêches de Brazzaville and Africa Intelligence.

HTH

Given the (believed limited) free float, it's hard to imagine there'd be no early warning from some firmness in the s/p, no matter how discreet a would-be buyer.

The risk/reward temptation - with the current s/p - should be a 'punt-sized'compelling investment for any number of connected or even rumour-fuelled HNWI's, family offices etc.

Closer to home and your comment re Congo squared off by the Strategic Partner(s), you'd expect the GLEN - appointed Country Manager to be in the loop, a big fish in a small local pool.

And there's no shortage of 'smarts' higher up : Big Den still has AIUI the former head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss Kahn (DSK) as an advisor, who has close connections with the Arab and African world.

See leMonde and Pandora Papers for Congo-specific references. DSK surfaced in Gabon context a few months back.

With so many parties involved and so much at stake, it would be like trying to herd cats.

Hence my interest in the substance or otherwise to your recent claim /understanding that the SP(s) had squared Congo off....

That would be akin to a 'test' starter pistol or the fat lady gargling AFAICS.

GLA

There is much progress, and very interesting connections being made and deployed.

Sooner or later these will leak, and then the SP will shift.

There are now so many connected parts that I wonder if the company alone can stay tight?

I'm set for a pre-emptive RNS.

Are you?

'Projection' definition : Projection is a psychological defense mechanism where one’s own feelings, emotions, impulses, traits, or behaviors are attributed to someone else. Projection is a way of displacing negative qualities about oneself or protecting oneself from inner conflict and anxiety.

'Transference' : Transference (German: Übertragung) is a phenomenon within psychotherapy in which repetitions of old feelings, attitudes, desires, or fantasies that someone displaces are subconsciously projected onto a here-and-now person.

HTH , ATB and GLA.

More information about your proclivities and predilection than I care to learn.

And , as per usual, nothing relevant re ZIOC.

'Must try harder' !

Dumbledore, i am sure your far to busy schooling Dozybear and Jiving in your private study.

GLA